Will the Model 3 be Ludicrously Fast?

MuskForPresident · Sep 8, 2015

We know the Model 3 will be around $35k. So assuming we can expect a lighter car with a smaller battery than MS, would not then we expect acceleration to actually go up from the MS?

So MS ludicrous mode does 0-60 in 2.8 seconds... Are we talking crazy ass performance for M3 at $50k and under price point?

gordo · Sep 8, 2015

I doubt it. The Model 3 will have a smaller battery pack (physically, but also kWh-wise), so it likely won't be able to draw as much peak power as a Model S. I suspect the high-end Model 3 will top out somewhere in the $65-75k range and have sub-4.0 second 0-60.

tom66 · Sep 8, 2015

I'm thinking (hoping) Tesla will whoop the M3's ass with the performance Model 3, but they won't attempt to beat the Model S; that would be cannibalising their own market. Something like 3.9 seconds 0-60, like the original P85, with all-wheel drive and around 400 hp total would line up well.

It won't have an Insane mode (maybe just Ridiculous Speed), but the off-the-line acceleration should be similar to the P85D with the all-wheel drive capability. Obviously reduced in magnitude, but still pretty strong.

TEG · Sep 8, 2015

If it has AWD and 0 - 60 in 4, I would be happy. Not expecting Insane / Ludicrous acceleration at the lower price point.

Twiglett · Sep 8, 2015

I really (really, really) doubt that Tesla are going to artificially make the Model 3 less of a car than the Model S.
While it will undoubtably be build down to a low entry point, it will probably still have insane or ludicrous options or could well be faster or more nimble than the Model S.
EM has consistently mentioned that they don't want to be like the other manufacturers in this regard.
After all, most manufacturers are trying to sell you up the range, Tesla is the other way around. The Model S is there as the enabler for the Model 3 in the same way the Roadster was for the S.
They seem to be planning on making each successive car better than the last.

igotzzoom · Sep 8, 2015

Will an ultra-high-performance Model 3 be offered at some point? Most likely. But probably not at launch. If it's 0-60 in around 6 flat right out of the box, that'll be enough for me.

Bangor Bob · Sep 8, 2015

As a general rule of thumb, the smaller models in a carmakers range tend to get the "high performance" versions. Supra, STI, Evolution, M3, RS4... These were not based on the makers larger vehicle platforms. On the other hand, Tesla regularly doesn't do what other automakers do...

JohnSnowNW · Sep 8, 2015

You need less power to reach similar performance in a lighter vehicle. It will be limited by power draw, but I don't see any reason the M3 won't be able to reach sub-3.5 second performance. The M3 won't be using AL, but that doesn't mean that weight savings can't be found elsewhere.

Red Sage · Sep 9, 2015

Ugh. Here we go again. Please take a look at the direct competitors for the Model ≡. Tesla Motors will want the least capable of their offerings in the segment to blow their doors off. Elon Musk will want the most capable version of Model ≡ to thoroughly embarrass anyone and everyone that claimed market dominance before them. These guys? Done.

Yggdrasill · Sep 9, 2015

I think the Model 3 will at launch have a D-version available. And assuming they use a similar motor to the front motor for both axels, that means they should have a version with around 400 hp AWD at launch. Already, that's about the same as an M3, and 0-60 will be somewhere around 4 seconds. And this wouldn't cost extremely much. Starting with a base Model 3 at 35k USD, all you need to add is the front motor/inverter, which is a 5k USD option on the Model S. I think they could make this motor cheaper for the Model 3, but they would proably load more profit onto this option, so I think it will cost a similar amount. That means a 40k USD Model 3 will have 400 hp and go 0-60 in around 4 seconds.

But I think Tesla could consider making a PXXD edition as well, having the upgraded contactors, fuses, etc, as well as a bigger motor and battery and a more powerful inverter. There would be nothing stopping Tesla from making a 350 hp rear motor plus the 200 hp front motor, thus 550 hp, or 125 hp more than an M3. Then you'd be looking at less than 3 seconds 0-60. Though given that Tesla has announced that they will be making another Roadster, maybe they will save this for the Roadster. If not, they would need to really outdo themselves, making a quad motor system or something similar.

MassModel3 · Sep 9, 2015

Red Sage said:
Ugh. Here we go again.

You say that like you're getting tired of talking up what an amazing car the 3 is going to be, but I know you love it.

Red Sage said:
Please take a look at the direct competitors for the Model ≡. Tesla Motors will want the least capable of their offerings in the segment to blow their doors off. Elon Musk will want the most capable version of Model ≡ to thoroughly embarrass anyone and everyone that claimed market dominance before them. These guys? Done.

Without a doubt there will eventually be a version of the 3 that does exactly that, but I'd be really surprised if we saw it on launch day. Dual motor and at least two battery sizes to choose from? Yep, right from the start. And I'll take the big battery D, thank you very much. But I don't know that EM is so concerned with embarrassing the competition with the 3. Yet. For now he just wants to change the mindset of buyers, proving that electrics are affordable, convenient, and fun to drive.

But on the other hand, the mad scientists at Tesla have already figured out how to design a high performance motor and fuse system to allow for embarrassing speed, so maybe we'll see some of that in the 3 right from the start. But I doubt it. I fear that a wildly varying cost could simply scare away customers who will see an affordable model as 'stripped down'.

techmaven · Sep 9, 2015

If we believe the Model 3 starts with a 55 kWh battery pack with a 70 kWh battery pack option and we are talking about roughly the same c-rate discharge limits as current vehicles, we're looking at 5.5 x 55 = 302.5 kW and 5.5 x 70 = 385 kW. That's 411 hp and 523 hp at the battery. Throw in 10% or so drivetrain loss, we're looking at the limits of 370 hp and 471 hp. Of course, on the cheaper models, Tesla will likely opt for a smaller inverter rating. The car is likely to weight in at 4,000 lbs or so at the top end, so we're talking 0-60 times in the mid to upper 3's.

Kevin Harney · Sep 9, 2015

I am going to stick my neck out here. I believe that there will be a Ludicrious Mode for the Model 3 and I think the 0-60 times will be sub 2.5. Of course none of this will be available at the $35K price. It will be upwards of $80Kish - say $75K-$85K

Yggdrasill · Sep 9, 2015

MassModel3 said:
Without a doubt there will eventually be a version of the 3 that does exactly that, but I'd be really surprised if we saw it on launch day. Dual motor and at least two battery sizes to choose from? Yep, right from the start. And I'll take the big battery D, thank you very much. But I don't know that EM is so concerned with embarrassing the competition with the 3. Yet. For now he just wants to change the mindset of buyers, proving that electrics are affordable, convenient, and fun to drive.

But on the other hand, the mad scientists at Tesla have already figured out how to design a high performance motor and fuse system to allow for embarrassing speed, so maybe we'll see some of that in the 3 right from the start. But I doubt it. I fear that a wildly varying cost could simply scare away customers who will see an affordable model as 'stripped down'.

The best argument for Tesla having a Ludicrous version at launch is that Tesla might need the higher margins on these options to have sufficient average margin on their sales. Adding a ludicrous mode for on top of the regular XXD for something like 15k USD, with 50-75% margin, will really bring in the money. And people will definitely be willing to pay to get one of the fastest accelerating cars in the world.

- - - Updated - - -

Kevin Harney said:
I am going to stick my neck out here. I believe that there will be a Ludicrious Mode for the Model 3 and I think the 0-60 times will be sub 2.5. Of course none of this will be available at the $35K price. It will be upwards of $80Kish - say $75K-$85K

I doubt it. 2.5-3 seconds is possible, but less than that and you really start to struggle with the laws of physics. I'm thinking that kind of acceleration will demand sacrifices that aren't compatible with a family car.

We might see something like that on the next generation Roadster, though.

MassModel3 · Sep 9, 2015

Yggdrasill said:
We might see something like that on the next generation Roadster, though.

Without a doubt. Maximum plaid.

And maximum $$$.

Red Sage · Sep 9, 2015

Last year, before the Tesla 'D' Event, Elon Musk said that people on the internet were on the right track, but had misjudged the magnitude of what they had to show.

I believe that people are doing the same with Model ≡. Some are literally predicting that the rear wheel drive base version will be no more powerful than a BMW 320i. Just a neat little runabout that is affordable and relatively efficient due to electric drive. Effectively, nothing more than a Camry LE, with rear wheel drive. It is that notion that my 'Ugh.' above was about.

No.

Elon has repeatedly said that their cars must be compelling, better than all the other cars on offer, or no one would have a reason to buy them.

That sentiment has been echoed by JB Straubel, who says that more than anything else, they want to make sure all their cars are fun to drive.

People both here and at the Tesla Motors forum told me that I was being 'Over-the-Top Optimistic' when I theorized that a version of Model ≡ might have dual 250 HP motors, 500 HP combined, paired with at least an 85 kWh battery pack, and that it would be priced similarly to the BMW 335i. They said I was out of my mind when I suggested that the base version of Model ≡ would probably use a refined version of the ~300 HP rear motor from the Model S 60, which would be discontinued ahead of the release of Generation III vehicles, and that the smallest capacity battery pack would be at least 60 kWh for a range approaching 250 miles. I now suspect that even that specification may be seriously short of what Tesla will actually unleash upon the automotive world.

So, yeah... This is a rather touchy subject for me. I honestly believe that Tesla Motors intends to utterly astonish the world with what the Model ≡ can do. They want to prove that all the Naysayers, every single one, is absolutely, thoroughly, and completely, 100% incorrect.

Kevin Harney · Sep 9, 2015

Red Sage said:
Last year, before the Tesla 'D' Event, Elon Musk said that people on the internet were on the right track, but had misjudged the magnitude of what they had to show.

I believe that people are doing the same with Model ≡. Some are literally predicting that the rear wheel drive base version will be no more powerful than a BMW 320i. Just a neat little runabout that is affordable and relatively efficient due to electric drive. Effectively, nothing more than a Camry LE, with rear wheel drive. It is that notion that my 'Ugh.' above was about.

No.

Elon has repeatedly said that their cars must be compelling, better than all the other cars on offer, or no one would have a reason to buy them.

That sentiment has been echoed by JB Straubel, who says that more than anything else, they want to make sure all their cars are fun to drive.

People both here and at the Tesla Motors forum told me that I was being 'Over-the-Top Optimistic' when I theorized that a version of Model ≡ might have dual 250 HP motors, 500 HP combined, paired with at least an 85 kWh battery pack, and that it would be priced similarly to the BMW 335i. They said I was out of my mind when I suggested that the base version of Model ≡ would probably use a refined version of the ~300 HP rear motor from the Model S 60, which would be discontinued ahead of the release of Generation III vehicles, and that the smallest capacity battery pack would be at least 60 kWh for a range approaching 250 miles. I now suspect that even that specification may be seriously short of what Tesla will actually unleash upon the automotive world.

So, yeah... This is a rather touchy subject for me. I honestly believe that Tesla Motors intends to utterly astonish the world with what the Model ≡ can do. They want to prove that all the Naysayers, every single one, is absolutely, thoroughly, and completely, 100% incorrect.

I have to admit when you first came forward with some of those ideas I was a bit skeptical but the more I see and hear the more I am in your camp. Especially since I want a Model 3 !! LOL :biggrin:

MassModel3 · Sep 9, 2015

Red Sage said:
People both here and at the Tesla Motors forum told me that I was being 'Over-the-Top Optimistic' when I theorized that a version of Model ≡ might have dual 250 HP motors, 500 HP combined, paired with at least an 85 kWh battery pack, and that it would be priced similarly to the BMW 335i. They said I was out of my mind when I suggested that the base version of Model ≡ would probably use a refined version of the ~300 HP rear motor from the Model S 60, which would be discontinued ahead of the release of Generation III vehicles, and that the smallest capacity battery pack would be at least 60 kWh for a range approaching 250 miles. I now suspect that even that specification may be seriously short of what Tesla will actually unleash upon the automotive world.

Kevin Harney said:
I have to admit when you first came forward with some of those ideas I was a bit skeptical but the more I see and hear the more I am in your camp. Especially since I want a Model 3 !! LOL :biggrin:

Perhaps I just don't have enough history with Tesla, but I've been right along side Red Sage with that over-the-top optimism. Maybe it's just a lot of wishful thinking, but there's really no good reason most of these predictions can't come to pass. To his credit, he does far more research/homework than most, and I'm just extremely hopeful that he's right!

Bangor Bob · Sep 9, 2015

I'm *really* hesitant to voice this opinion as I'm not sure it'll be received well. But here goes...

There seems to be a lot of "talking down" of expectations for the Model 3 by current Tesla owners. My feeling is that some of that is due to ICE-age thinking. Current owners have paid a lot for their cars, and have an expectation for their cars to "be special." A mass market model that can be optioned up to near-equivalent performance is very threatening to that expectation.

An analysis of the economics though, suggests that the performance/cost slope for EV's is much steeper than for ICE's. You get a lot more performance for a small increase in cost. The incremental costs (as distinguished from retail price) of "Ludicrous" power aren't actually all that big. Nothing at all like the incremental costs for, say, moving from a mass-produced I4 ICE and transmission to a low-volume twin-turbo 6 and beefier transmission or hand-assembled bi-turbo AMG V8 and very low-volume 8-speed flappy paddle box. Motors, yes, are different, but Tesla's winding process is highly automated already. Flexibility in winding different capacity stators on the same line can likely be programmed into the tooling/robots. Power electronics upgrades can be "programmable" in that inverter boards get say, 1/2 populated with IGBT's for the base model, 3/4 populated with components for the midrange model, and fully populated for the Ludicrous model. Same circuit board, same parts placement robot, different program, tiny incremental cost (incremental component costs, likely in the $100's of dollars, possibly $10's with enough volume.). That's a brave new automotive world, and it's going to take some serious mental adjustments in our expectations and world-views going forward.

RJK911 · Sep 9, 2015

The BMW M3 does 0-60 in 3.9, the M5 does 0-60 in 4.2, and the M5 is the more expensive car. Both RWD.

It's not unheard of that the smaller, cheaper, sportier car is faster.

Will the Model 3 be Ludicrously Fast?

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