Model X Production ramp up discussion

Well, according to Eds.... :tongue:

Krugerrand said:

Well, according to Eds.... :tongue:

Click to expand...

:biggrin: oh no!

@dsm363: thanks for the new thread and link!

With regards to the ramp up of the X in October, I think we should pay close attention to sig and non-sig reservation holders with reservation numbers >50 reporting that they got invited to configure their cars via mytesla. If the production line and supply chain is ready to ramp up quickly in October, then Tesla should send out much more invites in the weeks ahead prior to official reveal on 29th of September.

But so far it looks like they're going to produce just a couple dozens of cars in 3-4 weeks from now, since there's little reaction to the relevant thread on invitations over there: What is the highest reservation number to get invite to configure?

dsm363 said:

Since Tesla is starting production this is a thread to discuss the speed of the rollout and other ramp up issues.

Click to expand...

Awesome! Thanks for starting. I've been thinking a lot about this and how we can slice and dice data in coming up with a model as well for wait times and queue length from it too. With all the great knowledge and ingenuity here, I'm sure we can come up with something.

For now I hope we have a quick ramp. Good luck Tesla. Fingers crossed for you and the happy owners that you meet your goal.

The ramp up speed is important, but I think the customer satisfaction level is more important to Tesla.

I would be happy to see a slow steady increase in production numbers.

I’m worried about the supply chain rumors and eager for any perspective on them. If Tesla really hasn’t finalized supply relationships for key components, we could be in for a very long wait. (I’m production res 2,567 and totally obsessed) But I can’t evaluate how dependable those particular rumors are. Everything else (all those robots…) makes me pretty optimistic about production ramp, but the supply chain stuff is scary.

So anyone got an angle on the actual status of their vendor relationships?

Do we know how many Founders' series are in the queue? This piece from Barrons -- Tesla: The Tweets Have It - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com -- quotes Trip Chowdry (who some people don't think is a particularly reliable source) as saying:

Robbo said:

Do we know how many Founders' series are in the queue? This piece from Barrons -- Tesla: The Tweets Have It - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com -- quotes Trip Chowdry (who some people don't think is a particularly reliable source) as saying:

Model X roll out will follow the typical launch path – with about 100 or so Founders Series; followed by Signature Series and then the people who pre-ordered Model X​

Click to expand...

Really doubt it's anywhere near 100. He's guessing. Model S was right around 34. I heard several months ago that the X Founder list was more like a dozen.

dsm363 said:

Credit to Newb. Think that was a good idea to start over with a new thread focusing on the actual rollout instead of speculation about any delays.

Click to expand...

... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?
I agree that it would be good to track the actual rollout but I fear this thread is destined to be filled with rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation (occasionally degenerating into... worse).
My prediction is that the Model X will roll out! (on some schedule which will only be apparent in retrospect)

mspohr said:

rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation

Click to expand...

on the TMC forum???

mspohr said:

... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?
I agree that it would be good to track the actual rollout but I fear this thread is destined to be filled with rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation (occasionally degenerating into... worse).
My prediction is that the Model X will roll out! (on some schedule which will only be apparent in retrospect)

Click to expand...

Y'all know that all this is just begging me to throw in my WAG on the ramp up rates.

mzpolo said:

Y'all know that all this is just begging me to throw in my WAG on the ramp up rates.

Click to expand...

Sure, go ahead.

Speculation is integral part of our lifes and it's entertaining, too. And nobody is forced to read every thread of the forums.

Newb said:

Sure, go ahead.

Speculation is integral part of our lifes and it's entertaining, too. And nobody is forced to read every thread of the forums.

Click to expand...

you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?

Alec said:

I’m worried about the supply chain rumors and eager for any perspective on them. If Tesla really hasn’t finalized supply relationships for key components, we could be in for a very long wait. (I’m production res 2,567 and totally obsessed) But I can’t evaluate how dependable those particular rumors are. Everything else (all those robots…) makes me pretty optimistic about production ramp, but the supply chain stuff is scary.

So anyone got an angle on the actual status of their vendor relationships?

Click to expand...

I'm having a hard time giving rumors of unfinished supply chain relationships any credence at all. The only place I can kind of imagine this as being reasonably possible, with production deliveries starting in a few weeks, would be completely standard parts like tires, wheels, windshield wiper blades - parts that are made by at least 2 manufacturers to standardized specs / dimensions / etc.., where Tesla can be picking the quality and cost level among competitors, where there is plenty of volume generally available in the market, and no need for any customization for a manufacturer to bring the part to market in their vehicle.

Your "if" (if Tesla really hasn't finalized supply relationships), were it true, sounds like a months or quarters delay in meaningful car shipments. Something that might have been true a year ago ramping up for this month.

My fear level on this particular 'issue' is zero.

Anyone know what happens when a sig reservation is deferred? Does it get to move to the front of standard production queue or something else? I'm thinking a lot of people with Sig reservations will want to defer for standard middle row seats to get cargo space if the info about the sig middle row not folding flat or otherwise getting out of the way is accurate

pvogel said:

Anyone know what happens when a sig reservation is deferred? Does it get to move to the front of standard production queue or something else? I'm thinking a lot of people with Sig reservations will want to defer for standard middle row seats to get cargo space if the info about the sig middle row not folding flat or otherwise getting out of the way is accurate

Click to expand...

Quite a few people have done so over the years and in general the impression I got was that they went to the back of the line - so you'd move about 20 thousand spots back for the US -- add in the international orders I'd guess you'd lose something like 6 months.

Awesome! That would be great for me in position P1651...

mzpolo said:

you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?

Week ending	# produced	Cumulative total
10/2/2015	25	25
10/9/2015	25	50
10/16/2015	50	100
10/23/2015	50	150
10/30/2015	100	250
11/6/2015	100	350
11/13/2015	250	600
11/20/2015	250	850
11/27/2015	100	950
12/4/2015	250	1200
12/11/2015	500	1700
12/18/2015	750	2450
12/25/2015	500	2950
1/1/2016	500	3450
1/8/2016	750	4200
1/15/2016	1000	5200
1/22/2016	1000	6200
1/29/2016	1000	7200

Click to expand...

My WAG: cut each of your numbers in half in 2015.....all sigs (US) delivered in 2015. After that better ramp. TM might hit 5,000 total produced Jan 31, 2016