35K-50K price point? Leasing or Buying? And 1st day announcement # orders discussion

Right now my plan is to wait a few years and prolly lease. Obviously an AWD with all the bells and whistles will be a 60K+ car, but RWD with cloth seats should sneak in under 40K. Not sure which I'd get at this point.

Certainly plan to put a deposit down as soon as I can.

Right now I'd tell you that I'm going to lease it but it will depend on my experience with leasing the Model S. I leased the car I ordered in June because I expect that I'll want periodic upgrades (kind of like iPhone) and leasing made sense to me. I've never leased a car before but this seems different.

As far as configuration goes one can only speculate. I hope there is a performance RWD set-up but that seems unlikely given where the S has gone.

1. I don't care a ton about the final price so long as it represents a decent value. I'm going to spring for options that improve the functionality of the car for a reasonable cost - dual motors, larger battery size, etc. I couldn't give less of a damn about stuff like leather seats or fancier speakers.

2. Buy. I'm interested in a good value, and a new car is a better value when you keep it for a long time. Leasing is renting, the opposite of a long term value proposition. I'm not really interested in other manufacturers. They won't have the Tesla supercharger network, and they don't have the same goal that Tesla does - a goal which pushes them to make a better product than their competitors. I have confidence in their ideals. Maybe there will be options in future models that I will miss, but if it bugs me that much I can sell and buy a newer one.

3. I will reserve at the earliest possible minute.

1. Assuming it has all the cool tech features that the Model S has either standard or via options I will go up to 50k in price.
2. Buy, I never lease. I have never actually seen lease math that worked out ahead of purchasing for my usage and financial situation.
3. Yes as soon as reservations open I will reserve one. I expect about 10-20k reservations first day. I would say the 50-100k mark will be 6-12 months after reservations open.

1 - I'm budgeting for $40k. Hopefully supercharging is included in the base price. Dual motor is not important. I would really like heated seats and steering wheel. My Leaf had it and now I just can't go back to non-heated. I actually prefer cloth seats but I might be a minority. I hate the way leather sticks to sweaty skin.

2 - Probably buy, but may lease to take advantage of the $7500 tax break (I don't make enough otherwise). Also depends on how much I'm able to save between now and then. I'd love to pay cash but that may not happen.

3 - I'll be hitting refresh on the website starting 10 minutes before the live reveal. I will press the reserve button within 1 minute of it going live.

No, because the servers would be overwhelmed. You'd have to reserve in person to have a chance of making reservation within 24 hours.

Keep in mind $35k is the base model without any options. The way I look at it is configure a Model S the way you want it then cut the price in half. That should give you a good idea of what Model 3 will be close to in price. For me that's $50-55k. Remember, Model 3 is directly aimed at the BMW 3 series, it's not an econobox to compete with the Bolt et all. Go look at the 3 series pricing to get a real world example of what to expect from Tesla.

1. I'd be ok with going up to about $50k. With the absurd miles I put on my cars, the TCO should still be better than my maxed-out Prius. Looking for a bigger battery and AWD (RWD in snow and ice scares the willies out of me) for sure. Heated seats and mirrors would be nice. Good media options are really nice for long drives. If there's any budget left, some sort of sunroof, if they offer it. I have zero interest in any performance options.

2. Buy. I put on so many miles that no lease makes any sense whatsoever.

3. If the $7500 tax credit is still available, I'd probably buy right away and see what I could sell my Prius for. If that's gone, I may wait until my Prius is good and dead so Tesla can work out the first-year bugs.

If the base model includes supercharging and enough range to use it, then I'd get the base model. Otherwise, I might not be a buyer at all. I'm simply not willing to pay much more.

slingxshot said:

1. 35K starting price? Ye right. AWD, Leather, Tech Package, taxes, probably will run you somewhere mid 40's or higher. What is your magic $$ number? Do you care, or you just want wheels and electric motor with high range?

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Yes right. What company offers a car with AWD,Leather,Tech package, free fuel for life and taxes included in the base price?

Elon has already said base M3 will be RWD.

Base will have textile seats because some people prefer them and leather cost more. So leather will be additional cost.

I am fairly confident navigation will be standard like S70.

The big question is will Supercharger access be standard.

Anyone remember D night. We couldn't even get in to the ordering page.

Does anyone recall the tax credit language? Was it 250k for all cars or only per model sold? If its all cars it should go poof sometime in the late 2018/early 2019 time frame depending on the ramp ups of the X and M3 correct?

slingxshot said:

1. 35K starting price? Ye right. AWD, Leather, Tech Package, taxes, probably will run you somewhere mid 40's or higher. What is your magic $$ number? Do you care, or you just want wheels and electric motor with high range?

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I want it for $34,999. Otherwise we (in WA) have to pay sales tax, which would be about 10%. I hope to be able to buy some stuff (SC access ?) after wards.

BTW, if it has leather, I won't buy.

2. Are you leasing it or buying it? Is it worth buying it when Tesla and Other Car Manuf (lets say by 2020) will probably be producing other alternatives by then? What lease price are you thinking? (I am hoping its below $500/m)

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I'd like to lease. Just see the number of new features Tesla is rolling out after the first production S. I'm sure Model 3 will also follow the MVP (minimum viable product) strategy to get it out of the door in 2017.

3. Are you planning to reserve it same day when it will be announced? I gave this a lot of thought and I believe that if you don't order the car within the first 10 minutes, you will probably be waiting several extra months for delivery. I am thinking 1st day orders will be probably between 50,000-100,000 cars. I wouldn't be surprised if its closer to 100,000 number. There are several factors to that number, people I believe will be very comfortable by then with super chargers being everywhere.

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Absolutely, reserve as soon as available. With Leaf I got a few minutes late (Nissan sent emails letting people who had already registered, reserve) because the site wouldn't take AMEX and my car was late by a month.

BTW, this is the rate at which Leaf got reservations.

6,000 in the first 2 days @ 3,000/day
3,000 in the next 22 days @ 135/day
3,000 in the next 3 days @ 1,000/day
6,000 in the next 85 days @ 70/day.
1,000 in the next 28 days @ 35/day

BrianC said:

Does anyone recall the tax credit language? Was it 250k for all cars or only per model sold? If its all cars it should go poof sometime in the late 2018/early 2019 time frame depending on the ramp ups of the X and M3 correct?

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It is per manufacturer. It is not 250k, 200k cars.

I hope they change the language - otherwise the laggards like Toyota will have an unfair advantage over OEMs who jumped in first.

1. I'm planning on $50,000 cash. I want maximum range and hopefully AWD (I'm military and never know what climate I'll be stationed in next). Beyond that, I'll max out the tech up to the $50,000 point.

2. Buying. No other brands interest me. I plan on owning it for at least 10 years and then I'll see what's on the market.

3. Yes. I plan on reserving ASAP. I'll stay up until 4AM if that means the server load is finally low enough to get in the queue.

BrianC said:

Does anyone recall the tax credit language? Was it 250k for all cars or only per model sold? If its all cars it should go poof sometime in the late 2018/early 2019 time frame depending on the ramp ups of the X and M3 correct?

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A reprise of a post of mine in another thread:

The tax credit phases out for a year and a quarter after Tesla USA sales hit 200k. My guess is that Tesla USA sales won't hit 200k five quarters before the Model 3 launches. If so, the first cars should be eligible for some of the tax credit.

The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

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Internal Revenue Bulletin - November 30, 2009 - Notice 2009-89

My take on this:

Q0 USA sales hit 200k
Q1 Full credit available, $7500
Q2 50% credit available, $3750
Q3 50% credit available, $3750
Q4 25% credit available, $1875
Q5 25% credit available, $1875
Q6 no credit available

1. I'm aiming for ~$50,000, mid-sized battery, dual motor, textile, SpC access, coils (probably), maybe tech package if it has stuff I really value (unlikely, but who knows?). Plus wrap and tint. Plus a cellphone (Argh!).

2. I will buy. Financing a small portion might be wise for me as I have never had a car loan, and it might be good to have on my CR in case I ever decide I want to apply for a mortgage. I get attached to my cars and drive them until they are only good for donation as scrap, so leasing doesn't work for me.

3. As this will be my only vehicle (for the rest of my life!), I will try to keep my current car running through 2018, when I feel hopeful that manufacturing bugs will have been worked out, and I can possibly have a couple of versions (form factor) to choose from. Also, my mechanic is planning to retire around then. So I guess I will order in mid/late-2017, hahahahaha*cough*. I've been waiting since 2003 (my toys wouldn't fit in a Roadster, S is too big), so I'm obviously in no big rush.

Then again, given Tesla Time, late 2017 could mean standing in line at the reveal with a check in hand......... Whatev; I'm flexible.