First, to be clear, this is speculative exploration. Elon did not say Tesla will create their own Uber-like service yesterday. I don't see it as a material catalyst for the stock at this point.
That said, I've started thinking about how profitable such a service could be and how it could push forward the mission of Tesla Motors, and my initial quick look suggests to me it is likely a VERY compelling opportunity for Tesla. I thought we could try to flesh this out.
I just started with the idea that they might go for a Model 3 or smaller car for massive urban centers, like NY, London, Tokyo, Beijing, etc. Given the vehicle's usage, it may be cheaper to make than a privately owned Model 3.
I lived in NY for years... and a $5 cab ride for 15 minutes, or about 3 miles, of NY driving would be a very good value ($0 Tesla tip included). As a quick reference, just getting in a cab without going a foot costs $2.50, and costs $.50 per minute when stopped or in slow traffic (details on NYC cab fares, with various surcharges and per 1/5 mile rates at the bottom of the page). So, that 15 minute ride in a cab in NY would be at least $12 or so with tip and surcharges.
My quick estimate is that in these huge urban centers, in a day at the rate I've suggested, such a vehicle would bring in about $180 (I assumed 50% usage for 12 hours of the day, and 25% usage the other 12 hours).
That's $65,700 a year.
What are the costs? The car itself, $30K (possibly less given it's intended use), but, of course only for year 1. Some kind of refueling and service centers. The cost of programming and maintaining the application for the service. Insurance. License to offer cab services (can be very expensive, but there would be an environmental payoff to the cities that might help here).
These are quick numbers I looked at, but it seems potentially a hugely profitable business. Think about the return once the car has been paid for... or from a different perspective, a single conventional cab probably pays two drivers' salaries, and contributes profit to its owner, each year.
What about Tesla's mission?
1) If it were a massive new profit center, it would greatly augment Tesla's ability to invest in battery and vehicle plants.
2) If it is extremely profitable it would also spur the programs at Google and likely Apple. Anything pushing forward Google and Apple's involvement with EVs will be a huge validation and incentive for incumbents to join in.
3) It would replace gasoline vehicles and their emissions in dense urban areas. There are likely complications here though, as there may well be a concern about such a cheaper option moving some people from mass transit to individual vehicles.
4) It would be a built in market for Tesla to expand more confidently, and offer an easy place to move refurbished or traded in battery packs.
5) It would expand the amount of first hand experience consumers have with EVs.
I never quite got why Elon was so determined to lead the way on automated vehicles. Perhaps such a service has been part of what Elon's seen for years. It also fits nicely with recent Tesla comments about the goal of a million mile drivetrain. What's more, when Elon said he saw Tesla getting to Apple's market cap by 2025, I looked at stationary storage and the vehicle business and it seemed to me Elon would have to invent a new chess piece to grow so big so fast... there might be enough demand for those businesses, but Tesla (or anyone frankly) just doesn't look capable of scaling up that fast when you think about the number of battery and vehicle factories needed. I even started a thread at the time about the idea that Elon's Apple comment may mean he has a new chess piece we don't know about,
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-for-Tesla-to-Reach-Apples-Market-Cap-in-2025
Here's that list of NYC cab rates,
Metered Fare Information
That said, I've started thinking about how profitable such a service could be and how it could push forward the mission of Tesla Motors, and my initial quick look suggests to me it is likely a VERY compelling opportunity for Tesla. I thought we could try to flesh this out.
I just started with the idea that they might go for a Model 3 or smaller car for massive urban centers, like NY, London, Tokyo, Beijing, etc. Given the vehicle's usage, it may be cheaper to make than a privately owned Model 3.
I lived in NY for years... and a $5 cab ride for 15 minutes, or about 3 miles, of NY driving would be a very good value ($0 Tesla tip included). As a quick reference, just getting in a cab without going a foot costs $2.50, and costs $.50 per minute when stopped or in slow traffic (details on NYC cab fares, with various surcharges and per 1/5 mile rates at the bottom of the page). So, that 15 minute ride in a cab in NY would be at least $12 or so with tip and surcharges.
My quick estimate is that in these huge urban centers, in a day at the rate I've suggested, such a vehicle would bring in about $180 (I assumed 50% usage for 12 hours of the day, and 25% usage the other 12 hours).
That's $65,700 a year.
What are the costs? The car itself, $30K (possibly less given it's intended use), but, of course only for year 1. Some kind of refueling and service centers. The cost of programming and maintaining the application for the service. Insurance. License to offer cab services (can be very expensive, but there would be an environmental payoff to the cities that might help here).
These are quick numbers I looked at, but it seems potentially a hugely profitable business. Think about the return once the car has been paid for... or from a different perspective, a single conventional cab probably pays two drivers' salaries, and contributes profit to its owner, each year.
What about Tesla's mission?
1) If it were a massive new profit center, it would greatly augment Tesla's ability to invest in battery and vehicle plants.
2) If it is extremely profitable it would also spur the programs at Google and likely Apple. Anything pushing forward Google and Apple's involvement with EVs will be a huge validation and incentive for incumbents to join in.
3) It would replace gasoline vehicles and their emissions in dense urban areas. There are likely complications here though, as there may well be a concern about such a cheaper option moving some people from mass transit to individual vehicles.
4) It would be a built in market for Tesla to expand more confidently, and offer an easy place to move refurbished or traded in battery packs.
5) It would expand the amount of first hand experience consumers have with EVs.
I never quite got why Elon was so determined to lead the way on automated vehicles. Perhaps such a service has been part of what Elon's seen for years. It also fits nicely with recent Tesla comments about the goal of a million mile drivetrain. What's more, when Elon said he saw Tesla getting to Apple's market cap by 2025, I looked at stationary storage and the vehicle business and it seemed to me Elon would have to invent a new chess piece to grow so big so fast... there might be enough demand for those businesses, but Tesla (or anyone frankly) just doesn't look capable of scaling up that fast when you think about the number of battery and vehicle factories needed. I even started a thread at the time about the idea that Elon's Apple comment may mean he has a new chess piece we don't know about,
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-for-Tesla-to-Reach-Apples-Market-Cap-in-2025
Here's that list of NYC cab rates,
Metered Fare Information
- The initial charge is $2.50.
- Plus 50 cents per 1/5 mile or 50 cents per 60 seconds in slow traffic or when the vehicle is stopped.
- In moving traffic on Manhattan streets, the meter should “click” approximately every four downtown blocks, or one block going cross-town (East-West).
- There is a 50-cent MTA State Surcharge for all trips that end in New York City or Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Dutchess, Orange or Putnam Counties.
- There is a 30-cent Improvement Surcharge.
- There is a daily 50-cent surcharge from 8pm to 6am.
- There is a $1 surcharge from 4pm to 8pm on weekdays, excluding holidays.
- Please tip your driver for safety and good service.
