300+ Mile Model 3?

Not so fast, I would not be so quick to be happy about traveling 55mph on an 80mph interstate for instance. Nobody knows the answer to your question, but there is plenty of speculation that just like the Model S, there will be multiple battery size options.

Unless there is a breakthrough in battery technology, I doubt it. They will make the Model 3 a little more efficient, lighter and smaller, but they have to reduce cost quite a bit to get close to their target price. The most expensive part is the battery. To get 300 miles even on a smaller car it would still be a battery similar sized to the Model S and that's unlikely. But I hope I will be totally wrong!

There are many things that contribute to better range. The BMW i3, while a very different car, uses about 1/3 less energy in the same EPA test than the Model S. Lightweight construction (carbon fiber), smaller size, more efficient components and tires, not built for performance but for efficiency, ... Lots of things add up.

I believe there will be a 300 mile battery in the Model 3 but it won't be the base model at all. More like the ludicrous model.

ratsbew said:

. I'm happy to drive 55mph if it means stretching past 300 miles.

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All 85kWhr model S' will do 300 miles if you drive 55mph for most trips
Model 3 should do it no problem!

There is much speculation based on hints by Musk and JB that the next battery format will be approximately 10% longer and 10% larger. This would likely mean the format for the Model 3 will about 20720. That means more energy density in the same area so I'm expecting the Model 3 will definitely have a battery option that will exceed 300 miles.

It would be a stupid business decision if there wasn't a larger battery pack option for the Model 3 and Tesla/Elon have not done stupid things yet. So there will be a larger battery option that will likely be the very first cars leaving the factory. I expect they will follow the Signature, Performance, max pack, loaded, and possibly dual (but I'm not counting on that) pattern to production. The sad thing is that I'm not expecting any $35K cars to go for a full year after they begin production. The reason is that I believe there will be over 100,000 pre-orders for the max battery pack car. Tesla has to make money and the $35K car will be the least profitable version sold. Everything will be gearing up for full 500K production by 2020. That's a lot of ramp up that will need to be done. Maximize your profits and increase production will be all that Tesla will be able to focus on.

The max pack will likely be around 280 mile range. 300 is asking too much unless they have three different battery pack levels and I wouldn't expect that. 300 range packs will come along later as an upgrade as battery tech improves. I guarantee you that there will be a Model S and Model X that uses the Model 3 battery and those will absolutely go more than 300 with the improvement.

Given that we know absolutely nothing at this point, any speculation about 300 mile range is as valid as not.

If I have the road, I routinely drive 75-80 on the highway. If I could get a predictable 200 miles driving at that speed, I'd be thrilled.

ratsbew said:

Will there be a 300+ mile Model 3? I'm really hoping that they offer a larger battery choice that will allow me to take longer road trips.

Some longer day trips don't make efficient use of superchargers and I need the longer range. I'm happy to drive 55mph if it means stretching past 300 miles.

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I don't understand the aversion to supercharging.
300 miles at 55mph is 5.45 hours.
300 miles at 75mph is 4 hours
If you only get 200 miles of range at 75mph, your trip will still be way faster with a supercharger stop.

ratsbew said:

Will there be a 300+ mile Model 3? I'm really hoping that they offer a larger battery choice that will allow me to take longer road trips.

Some longer day trips don't make efficient use of superchargers and I need the longer range. I'm happy to drive 55mph if it means stretching past 300 miles.

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Nobody outside Tesla knows - yet. But what we know is:
- Elon has stated that the TM3 will have at least 200 miles realistic real world range.
- Elon has stated that to have 200 miles realistic real world range, you need 240 miles EPA range.

So, it is reasonable to say that the base version of TM3 will have at least a 240 miles EPA range.

Will there be an option for a bigger battery? TMS came with three battery sizes, reduced to two, and now is again 3, and is probably again reduced to two when the TM3 hits the road. TMX will have (at least) two battery options. So it is reasonable to guess that the TM3 also will get at least two battery options.

So, if the TM3 gets two battery-sizes, what range will the bigger battery get? My guess is that the gap will be to small if it was only 265 miles EPA like the original TMS. My guess is about 280 miles EPA for the RWD (if you get RWD with the bigger battery), some more with the dual motor. And with 280 miles EPA range, 300 miles @ 55mph would be no problem in normal weather/temperatures, but maybe a stretch in winter or in really hot summer or during rain/heavy headwind.

... but on the other hand, if they can make it 300+ miles EPA range, they will have crossed a psychological boundary that will be important for many to overcome, and will definitely help to convince a number of potential customers. So, if they are at all able to cross that boundary without to many compromises I'm sure they will.

Lets see .. today we have 70/90 (I'm ignoring 85 as it is on its way out).
In two years there are supposed to be two ~5% increments. First 75 / 95 and then 80 / 100 for MS and MX.
M3 will have shorter wheelbase, so the battery will need to by physically shorter and somewhat narrower, say 10% less volume and hence capacity.
That results in 70kWh base option that would easily do 240EPA and 90kWh option that will do 300EPA miles.

So, my bet is M3 will come with 70 and 90 batteries that will be 2 step improvement of today MS battery.

WarpedOne said:

... say 10% less volume and hence capacity.

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Well, the car should be 20% smaller. That does not say that the battery has to be 20% smaller, but I think that a 10% smaller battery will be a bit optimistic.

WarpedOne said:

That results in 70kWh base option that would easily do 240EPA ...

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TMS 70 does 240 EPA miles. A TM3 will do a lot more on that capacity. My guess is still on a 50-55kWh battery in the base configuration for the 240EPA range. Then a 65-70kWh would be close to 300 miles EPA range.

1) Elon Musk said that Model 3 will have a "20% smaller pack". Whether than means 20% lower cell capacity (48 kWh) or it allows for some packaging and chemistry improvements who knows.

2) Musk specified "200 usable mile range minimum". In any case, 48-50 kWh is enough for 200 mile EPA range, due to lower weight, less drag area and more efficient motor (P85D front motor)

3) A 70 kWh option would have similar range or more than a current 85 kWh Model S. So I think that it would make sense to have an option in that range (Assuming 50 kWh base model)

Source: Elon Musk battery Model E 80 percent size - YouTube

ScepticMatt said:

Musk specified "200 usable mile range minimum".

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Correct. But he has later stated that to get this 200 usable/realistic/real world miles, you need about 240 miles EPA range.

ScepticMatt said:

(Assuming 50 kWh base model)

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It just occurred to me that would result in a battery line up of 50, 70 and 90kWh. I realize that my desire to look for patterns in numbers has left me biased.

During the P90D announcement a few days ago, didn't he also say they'll be able to improve battery capacity by ~10% every 2-3 years. So by the time the Model E comes out they'll be on the next battery improvement increment. So a 50kWh base model then becomes a 55kWh base, and married to a lighter platform, they don't have to make as much power to achieve target performance levels, so they can wire more cells in parallel for longer range. I'd say that 250 real world miles is certainly feasible. 300 might be a bit optimistic though, for now at least.

wallet.dat said:

During the P90D announcement a few days ago, didn't he also say they'll be able to improve battery capacity by ~10% every 2-3 years. So by the time the Model E comes out they'll be on the next battery improvement increment. So a 50kWh base model then becomes a 55kWh base, and married to a lighter platform, they don't have to make as much power to achieve target performance levels, so they can wire more cells in parallel for longer range. I'd say that 250 real world miles is certainly feasible. 300 might be a bit optimistic though, for now at least.

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Or it stays 50kWh and costs less to Tesla, which enables them to get to their $35k target.