Buyers Remorse?

ModelSFL · Jul 21, 2015

I just took delivery on an Inventory 60 kWh Model S which included supercharger, tech package, and AP 4 days before Tesla a announced the 70 kWh model starting a $70,000. I was bummed but wasn't sure how bummed until I did the math at how much this impacted the value of the 60 kWh. The reason I selected this model was my commute is twice a week at 300 miles round trip. Either way I have to stop at a supercharger even if I bought a 85 kWh. There also wasn't any 70D or 85 kWh AP models available at the time. Therefore, the 60 kWh inventory option seemed like the best value.

Here is what I figured out:

I paid $68,920 but if I apply the same discounts and logic, it appears my inventory car should have theoretically costed about $10,000 less.

$72,500 [AP + 70 kWh] - $5330 [-10 kWh battery] + 1200 [doc fees] = $68,370 - $9,400 [showroom discount) = $58,970.

As you can imagine, it is a bit frustrating to know I overpaid for this vehicle and had I waited just a few more days then I could have made a much better decision by buying the 70 kWh new. I completely understand that the technology will continue to evolve, batteries will improve, and as owners we have to expect our Tesla's will depreciate. However, it was really tough seeing the value evaporate by $10,000 as quick as it did.

Another factor that has been on my mind is the warranty between the 60 kWh (125k miles/8 year) vs 70 kWh (unlimited / 8 year). With the amount of miles I plan on driving, I will hit 125k in 8 years. Whereas I would effectively have doubled the time span with the 70 kWh warranty.

While I understand my options are limited and I'd have to see the cost justification of each:

1. Trade in the 60 kWh for a 70 kWh
2. Look into a battery 60 kWh to 70 kWh upgrade (if even option)
3. Wait a 3-4 years and hope there is a 120 kWh battery to upgrade to
4. You're out of luck, do nothing, there is no cost effective solution at this point.

jeffro01 · Jul 21, 2015

Along the lines of this conundrum, would anyone here be surprised if Tesla converted all of the S60s into S70s? I wonder how much that would cost them from a battery perspective and whether or not it would make sense.

To the OP, option 4 is the most realistic as option 2 is out and option 3 is likely out as well. Option 1 is what I'd be looking hard at but I can promise you it won't be cost effective...

Jeff

dsm363 · Jul 21, 2015

Sucks but trading it in will only lose you more money. As long as the car works for your commute hang onto in. In 4 years there will be something even more amazing and might be able to do your entire commute without charging. Any way to get charging installed at work? That'd help.

ModelSFL · Jul 21, 2015

jeffro01 said:
Along the lines of this conundrum, would anyone here be surprised if Tesla converted all of the S60s into S70s? I wonder how much that would cost them from a battery perspective and whether or not it would make sense.

To the OP, option 4 is the most realistic as option 2 is out and option 3 is likely out as well. Option 1 is what I'd be looking hard at but I can promise you it won't be cost effective...

Jeff

The upgrade from 40 kWh to 60 kWh wasn't a hardware swap but all in software and I believe that was $10,000?

If 60 kWh batteries were upgraded to 70 kWh then I would imagine Tesla would also provide the same unlimited/8 year warranty. Probably would be costly for them to swap out hardware and extend warranties. Although, I can't say I don't like the idea!

No2DinosaurFuel · Jul 21, 2015

Sucks for sure. I think there is no cost effective solution as of now. Your best bet is hope tesla will upgrade your battery in the future.

This is a clear sign to me to only buy, whether CPO, inventory, or new only when Tesla makes a new announcement. At least I won't have to eat the cost and get to enjoy my car a few months before the next announcement.

TexasEV · Jul 21, 2015

Tesla has something better every few months. If you wait for the next thing, you'll never buy the car. At some point you have to decide if the car meets your needs and go for it, and not worry about what comes out after that. It's like 10-20 years ago when everyone was upset when a faster computer came out just after they bought one.

My advice-- do nothing and just enjoy your amazing car which had everything you wanted on the day you bought it.

mknox · Jul 21, 2015

This is an artifact of Tesla constantly improving the car. The "pros" are obvious: faster iteration of the vehicle. The "cons" are that we consumers are accustomed to "model years" and cars being updated just annually. There are numerous threads here about how "if I'd just waited until..." and I've probably whined in a few of the discussions myself. In the old paradigm, I know that if I bought a 2015 vehicle, it would be consistent with all other 2015 vehicles of the same make and model, and I wouldn't be surprised or upset when the 2016 model comes out with improvements. Not so with Tesla. For example, for a lot of people, Autopilot hardware just started showing up on delivered cars before people even knew what it was. Then those who "just missed out" based on the production or delivery timing were upset.

Sosius · Jul 21, 2015

IMO, second-guessing only leads to unecessary anxiety and unhappiness. New models aside, do you like the car? Does it serve your needs? Does it perform well? If the answers to those question are yes, then stop second-guessing yourself and move on.

I bought a 70D and might choose a different car if I could choose today. Probably a RWD 70 so I could have the frunk space, and then put the $5k savings into other options (or into my pocket). But that was not an option when I bought my car, so I am not beating myself up about it. In 5 years or so, when I get my next Tesla, the options will be different and the new models will make my car look like a dinosaur. Such is the dilemma when buying a Tesla.

Drive your car and enjoy it for what it is, not for what it might have been if your timing was different. It's still one of the coolest and most impressive pieces of technology to ever hit the roads anywhere. Don't lose sight of that.

MsElectric · Jul 21, 2015

Unfortunately you have no good options. Whatever you have lost, you have already lost. My advise is to just enjoy your car at least for another 3 years so you can amortize that initial depreciation over a longer period. You can always look for something better in 3 years and if you are thinking about putting $10K towards a 70 now, save that $10K and put that towards a car much better than a 70 in 3 years.

techmaven · Jul 21, 2015

There will always be a newer model. I paid over $105k for my P85 and it doesn't have autopilot. It doesn't have dual motors. If I had waited, that amount of money can buy both. The S85D pretty much matches my vehicle's 0-60 performance for less money and with a boatload of new features.

Now, I'm not sure how you calculated the $5,330 for the 10 kWh battery. Back in the S60/S85/P85 era, the upgrade price was $280/kWh ($10k upgrade price minus $2k for Supercharging, $1k for tire upgrade). Tesla is now charging a lot more for the upgrade, but I think $533/kWh is too high. The 85-90 kWh upgrade involves new partial silicon anode cells and thus a much higher value per kWh, but we're talking $10-20/kWh higher. At the moment, the S70->S85 upgrade is a bit out of whack, but I think that will be remedied in due course. At the original upgrade price, it's $2,800 for the difference.

In any case, enjoy the car. It's still fantastic.

Max* · Jul 21, 2015

To be fair, the difference isn't as much as you think. The old tech package included the lighted door handles, power lift gate, fog/cornering lights, etc. So the 70 would be $75,500, not $72,500.

Did the 60kwh model have anything else? Leather? Paint color? UHF? SAS? etc.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, based on Elon math, 5%/year battery upgrade. We're at 90kwh, in 4 years you might get 110kwh, not 120kwh.

Uncle Paul · Jul 21, 2015

With the rapid pace of Tesla innovations there will be two choices for every purchaser.
1. Enjoy the car you own, and rejoice in it's capabilities.

2. Be constantly jealous of the better or more affordable car that is sure to come after yours is purchased.

Elon mentioned this when the question came our...should I order now, or wait for the improved mode. His answer was that he intends to improve the car as rapidly as possible, so waiting will never give you the solution you wish....there will always be a better Tesla coming if he gets his way.

Maybe a different strategy might be to enjoy the heck out of any Tesla you might own, and perhaps trade it in every 5-6 years or so when a bunch of improvements make it worthwhile. (Even then, something better might still be just around the corner.

I see this same thing with my Harley riding buddies. While they all have fantastic bikes, they are always talking about all the improvements in the most recent models. More gears, more horsepower, better ride, improved electronics, better lighting. The story is very similar. The happiest riders are those that enjoy their current bike to the max, while planning their finances to get an even better one.

mkspeedr · Jul 21, 2015

I understand my P85D was delivered two weeks ago and my mom picked up here P85D during the announcement.

Progress happens - there is always a newer better version.

ModelSFL · Jul 21, 2015

Max* said:
To be fair, the difference isn't as much as you think. The old tech package included the lighted door handles, power lift gate, fog/cornering lights, etc. So the 70 would be $75,500, not $72,500.

Did the 60kwh model have anything else? Leather? Paint color? UHF? SAS? etc.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, based on Elon math, 5%/year battery upgrade. We're at 90kwh, in 4 years you might get 110kwh, not 120kwh.

I only had SC, AP, and TP as options.

Good point, the Premium Interior and Lighting did get rolled out into its own package @ $3,000.

- - - Updated - - -

techmaven said:
There will always be a newer model. I paid over $105k for my P85 and it doesn't have autopilot. It doesn't have dual motors. If I had waited, that amount of money can buy both. The S85D pretty much matches my vehicle's 0-60 performance for less money and with a boatload of new features.

Now, I'm not sure how you calculated the $5,330 for the 10 kWh battery. Back in the S60/S85/P85 era, the upgrade price was $280/kWh ($10k upgrade price minus $2k for Supercharging, $1k for tire upgrade). Tesla is now charging a lot more for the upgrade, but I think $533/kWh is too high. The 85-90 kWh upgrade involves new partial silicon anode cells and thus a much higher value per kWh, but we're talking $10-20/kWh higher. At the moment, the S70->S85 upgrade is a bit out of whack, but I think that will be remedied in due course. At the original upgrade price, it's $2,800 for the difference.

In any case, enjoy the car. It's still fantastic.

I totally agree, it is a great car and everything that gets added (hardware or software) just makes it that much better. I completely expected new offering and pricing changes but just not a few days after delivery. I keep thinking, I could've just waited a few days! Hindsight though, right?

Anyhow, for the battery upgrade I just took the $10k between the 60 and 85 - $2k for the supercharging = $8,000 / 15 kWh = $533 kWh. The delta between the 60 kWh and 70 kWh = 10 kWh * $533.33 = $5,330. I didn't factor in the tire upgrade though.

dsm363 · Jul 21, 2015

Yeah. The missing it by a few days makes it tough but would a month have been better, or two? You'd still be saying "If only I had held off a month". Glad you are enjoying the car. The new toys gives you something to look forward to for your next Model S.

techmaven · Jul 21, 2015

ModelSFL said:
I only had SC, AP, and TP as options.

Good point, the Premium Interior and Lighting did get rolled out into its own package @ $3,000.

- - - Updated - - -

I totally agree, it is a great car and everything that gets added (hardware or software) just makes it that much better. I completely expected new offering and pricing changes but just not a few days after delivery. I keep thinking, I could've just waited a few days! Hindsight though, right?

Anyhow, for the battery upgrade I just took the $10k between the 60 and 85 - $2k for the supercharging = $8,000 / 15 kWh = $533 kWh. The delta between the 60 kWh and 70 kWh = 10 kWh * $533.33 = $5,330. I didn't factor in the tire upgrade though.

Ah... it's $10k for the diff between the 60 and the 85, minus $2k for Supercharging and $1k for the tires. That leaves $7k, but it's a difference of 25 kWh, which leaves $280/kWh.

Yes, it's always particularly bad to be at the cusp of a change. I feel that.

ModelSFL · Jul 21, 2015

techmaven said:
Ah... it's $10k for the diff between the 60 and the 85, minus $2k for Supercharging and $1k for the tires. That leaves $7k, but it's a difference of 25 kWh, which leaves $280/kWh.

Yes, it's always particularly bad to be at the cusp of a change. I feel that.

LOL, yes you are correct it would be $280 kWh not $533. Thanks for bringing that up, the gap is closing some

Matteo · Jul 21, 2015

ModelSFL said:
The reason I selected this model was my commute is twice a week at 300 miles round trip.

Have you already done this trip in your S60? I'm assuming A to B is 150 miles with a supercharger somewhere in between like this:

A..........................S..............................B

A: Home
B: Destination
S: Supercharger

150 miles driving would consume more than 150 rated miles, and most likely around 190 rated miles. That means you need to supercharge both ways. How far is A to S or B to S? Is there an option to charge when you arrive at B? My first impression is, there will be huge time differences for this particular journey between Model S versions. Each time you go up a model, the trip time will be much less. The reason I would expect big time differences is because with low range models you need to supercharge to higher percentages to acquire the same rated miles. That takes a lot more time. In other words the time required to add 180 rated miles in S60, S70 or S85 is very different. Also when starting with a full battery from A, if the car has more range you can start with more rated miles which means less supercharging. It is possible to calculate trip times for each model if you can provide more data. A 70 is not necessarily a great idea.

omarsultan · Jul 21, 2015

ModelSFL said:
The upgrade from 40 kWh to 60 kWh wasn't a hardware swap but all in software and I believe that was $10,000?

Kinda, sorta. The original S40 had a completely different battery pack. When they EoL-ed the S40, they still had a backlog of unfilled orders, so they fulfilled those orders with a software-limited 60kWh pack at the original S40 price with the option you mentioned to pay an additional $10K to get use of the full battery.

Saghost · Jul 21, 2015

omarsultan said:
Kinda, sorta. The original S40 had a completely different battery pack. When they EoL-ed the S40, they still had a backlog of unfilled orders, so they fulfilled those orders with a software-limited 60kWh pack at the original S40 price with the option you mentioned to pay an additional $10K to get use of the full battery.

Are you sure? All the documents I've read said that when Tesla saw the number of preorders for the 40, they decided it wasn't cost effective to develop/produce the 40 kWh architecture, and so every 40 ever delivered was a software limited 60.
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