What range will 90D battery really have? how much more than 85D does $3k get you?

Spreadsheet were I did the rough estimates of that 5.9% number. See purple boxes.



Via thread: Estimated range of Model X

I think unless a critical trip that you make frequently, or a SC that you frequently visit, is literally on the cusp right now... like you are arriving with just 5-10 miles remaining... there's no reason to spend the extra 3k... it's such a negligible difference that easily can go either way due to wind, slight temperature changes, etc... like only useful if there's a critical location and you are just getting there right now and are therefore concerned with range anxiety.

You can easily make up this difference by simply setting cruise to 5mph lower... I just don't see much usage... If upgrade if available in the future on existing cars, I probably wouldn't upgrade until at least a 15-20% increase is available.

zer0cool said:

I think unless a critical trip that you make frequently, or a SC that you frequently visit, is literally on the cusp right now... like you are arriving with just 5-10 miles remaining... there's no reason to spend the extra 3k... it's such a negligible difference that easily can go either way due to wind, slight temperature changes, etc... like only useful if there's a critical location and you are just getting there right now and are therefore concerned with range anxiety.

You can easily make up this difference by simply setting cruise to 5mph lower... I just don't see much usage... If upgrade if available in the future on existing cars, I probably wouldn't upgrade until at least a 15-20% increase is available.

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This. I don't see anyone with an 85 pack going to a 90 one, even Elon said it didn't make much sense and that existing MS owners should wait until another step is made at least. I see plenty of people ordering a new one with the 90 pack, even myself possibly.

Jeff

I just changed my in production 85D to a 90D.

I wouldn't upgrade my existing 85 to a 90. But yeah, if I was buying new, I'd definitely get the 90. It doesn't matter at all around town, and it often doesn't much matter if you are following a Supercharger path, but as soon as you get off the Supercharger route it really matters. I've had a few trips close enough that I would have appreciated the extra buffer; one trip I didn't take that I would have with the extra buffer; and a couple trips where I made a painful 7kW charging stop I could have avoided with the bigger battery. And several other trips that weren't really close, but of course I didn't know that until I finished them - so I would have been more comfortable with the extra buffer even if I didn't end up needing it. Plus more battery means you are putting less stress on it when you use it (for high acceleration, fast charging and long - i.e. high energy use - trips). And when you Supercharge, you can spend more time at full speed before tapering off. So I see several advantages; though of course it depends on how you use the car.

Disadvantages to a bigger pack could be cost (this seems awfully low compared to the cost of the car for something that can affect usability; though not a great bargain for 5kWh - but not ridiculous either), and possibly weight although with this being a chemistry change that probably (?) is not significant. Volume is not an issue in this case either.

Scott's spreadsheet looks pretty good to me, though of course it's hard to be sure with the info Tesla has given us so far. The EPA number is a GREAT tool for comparing across cars, but of course doesn't tell you what you'll really get on a trip. The "65-mile cruising range" is a better number for that, though it is important to note that's a "best-case" number assuming great weather. I typically take 1/3 off that number as a rough guess of how far I can go before planning a charging stop. Tools like evtripplanner can give you more detail for a specific trip, but there are always day-of variables like wind, traffic, detours etc that you can never know in advance, so always leave a buffer.

70D vs 85D, you're paying 10k for 30mi of range.
85D to 90D, you're paying 3k for 15mi of range.

If range is what you're after, 90D seems like a pretty good thing to go for.
Im not in that camp of course , I think 70Ds range is plenty.

Elon said in the press conference that they can't give an EPA range yet because EPA hasn't tested it yet. They can only give range at a fixed speed. At 65 mph it has 6-7% more range than an 85 kWh battery.

finallybuying said:

Interesting. Thanks. Odd that they didn't wait for a 100D to increase the size more materially. Such a small mileage difference. 15 miles? Wonder if it just means they'll phase out the 85D to move to 90D for the 85D price very soon and call it a price decrease as soon as the 85D batteries run out?

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I'd bet that the X won't have an 85 option. It will probably be 70 (maybe 75?) and 90 only. I'm guessing the 85 will vanish eventually, but probably not until next spring.

Assuming the 90 pack has the same brick protection as the 85 pack you get 5 kWh hours more available for driving. In real-life numbers that works out to about 20-25 km's more range with our driving style.

So about 12-15 miles more range on a 90 pack.

In my opinion not worth it unless you regularly arrive places with less than 10 km's on your pack and you feel like a nerve-wreck.

You should consider, that the main reason for releasing the 90kWh battery pack was to equalize drive range of Model X with Model S with standard 85kWh battery. Because the higher driving resistances of Model X (higher air drag, probably more weight). So i think that the Model X will have 90kWh pack as standard. Otherwise releasing 5-6% battery upgrade does not make any sense, even for Tesla.

So it is also possible, that we can expect release of ~75kWh pack option for Model X in near future.

Don't forget, the battery capacity degrades over time. This means that a 50k mile 90 kWh Model S has roughly the same range as a new 85 kWh Model S.

We will also see about Supercharging speed. Maybe this upgrade means fully utilizing 135 kWh Supercharging. It could shave a few minutes off charging times.

i expect that all Model X comes with the new cells, and as production of the new cells ramps up, the older cells go away. That could be a while though.

Is this a whole new battery pack? Does that mean if I upgrade my P85D for $3k (if that ends up being the final price) I'm effectively swapping out for a new battery pack?

kirkbauer said:

Is this a whole new battery pack? Does that mean if I upgrade my P85D for $3k (if that ends up being the final price) I'm effectively swapping out for a new battery pack?

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Yes, you most probably get the entirely new pack (just for the service action time reason) and the old one will Tesla reuse.

I think that 3k USD option is valid for the new car only, because right now there is known only statement, that the retrofit will be possible. I think that the price will be around 12k USD including installation labor, because this is already known prepaid price for the replacement battery pack. And this is also the main reason why Elon did not recommend this option for existing users.

Since Tesla is now using new chemistry (some silicon in the anode), shouldn't they need new EPA rating for 70 as well as 85 models? I assume weight is reduced due to the chemistry and hence higher range.

pGo said:

I assume weight is reduced due to the chemistry and hence higher range.

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Not necessarily, silicon is heavy. The 2009 silicon prototypes were heavier than their carbon counter-parts.
Panasonic Develops High-Capacity Lithium-Ion Battery Cells That Can Power Laptops and Electric Vehicles | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global

pGo said:

Since Tesla is now using new chemistry (some silicon in the anode), shouldn't they need new EPA rating for 70 as well as 85 models? I assume weight is reduced due to the chemistry and hence higher range.

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I doubt the non-90 kWh packs have the new cells. I bet the new cells are pricier and there's a relatively limited quantity of them. In this way, Tesla can roll out the new chemistry in a much more limited fashion. At some point, these new cells will be the standard cells. At that point, the 85 kWh pack goes away. The 70 pack is likely a bigger capacity pack (74 kWh) unless the pricing differential is enough to keep the old cells around. I would bet the Model X has a 74 and 90 kWh options only with the new chemistry.

techmaven said:

Don't forget, the battery capacity degrades over time. This means that a 50k mile 90 kWh Model S has roughly the same range as a new 85 kWh Model S.

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Agree in principal, but losing 5kwh in 50K seems a bit steep. I haven't even lost 1kwh in my 60 battery at 50K miles.

85K working well for me here in Carolina 16 month now.