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Plug-In Vehicles Could Surge, Needs More Supply in Canada

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S'toon

Knows where his towel is
Apr 23, 2015
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Plug-in electric vehicle sales could surge substantially in Canada if vehicle choice and supply (as well as public awareness) is improved, according to new research from Simon Fraser University.


The work found that over 33% of all Canadian car buyers are interested in a plug-in electric vehicle — this in spite of the fact that only ~1% of vehicle sales in Canada are currently electric. Worth noting here, though, is that the vast majority (89–93%) of those interested in plug-ins are apparently interested in plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) rather than all-electrics (BEVs).

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With regard to the lack of options and supply, one should remember here that there are only 7 models of plug-ins currently available in Canada. The research notes that, without an increase in options and numbers, market share is unlikely to surpass 4–5% by 2030. With an increase in supply (up to 56 different plug-in options), though, market share could grow to over 20% by 2030, according to the researchers.

Via the data, the researchers identified 3 distinct groups of buyers: Pioneers (current plug-in owners); potential Early Mainstream buyers (those likely to adopt relatively early); and Later Mainstream buyers (those that follow the other two, natch).

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Full article at:
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/18/plug-vehicle-sales-canada-surge-increased-supply-research-finds/
 
A big barrier to adoption right now is choice. For many, a car purchasing decision is as much (or more) emotional than practical. If the current crop of EVs doesn't trigger that emotional response, a car buyer is just as likely to go with an ICE that does.
 
One thing that bothers me is that the three most mainstream car manufacturers with ev's, namely GM, BMW, and Nissan do zilch advertising on TV to even get the idea of ev's into people's minds. An ev would be an awesome choice for two or more car families as their local commuter vehicle but the idea is just not being promoted at all to the average consumer.
 
Had a "tailgate" party at work the other day after a long afternoon of team building.
Served some brews out of the back of my Smart Fortwo Electric Drive.

There were some who were genuinely interested in going 100% electric for their commute.
Comments were very positive, and for sure there is a big hurdle to adoption, as most had no idea it was even possible or practical to own an EV.

The usual questions are range, charging, performance in winter and longevity of the battery. Given that I have driven almost two years daily commute to the same office they work, from similar distance they drive, the lights went on for a number of people, especially when I talk about the cost of fuelling, and never needing to visit a gas station.

The Smart ED is such a great EV, because it makes it easy to have the cost comparison discussion.

Surprisingly the Tesla discussions don't generally stop when cost is mentioned, rather, people are amazed that it can go that far on a single charge, and that we road tripped to New York with no problems and with comfort and convenience. The reaction to the cost of the car is "looks like it's worth it".

There are literally dozens of people we've talked to in the past month who can't wait for Tesla to release the Model 3. The demand will be epic.
 
There are literally dozens of people we've talked to in the past month who can't wait for Tesla to release the Model 3. The demand will be epic.
This echoes my experience. Most people can't see themselves spending for a Model S or X, but it's very encouraging to hear people saying the Model III is what they can't wait to see - I don't even have to explain that it's in the works!

However, I'm seeing a few people who are starting to accept that the price of the S isn't perhaps as outrageous as it seems at first glance. Case in point, a friend who picked up a Dodge shortbox 2WD with a hemi in it... used... at the same time I picked up my MS. He thought it was a cute truck that shouldn't be too tough on gas since it wasn't that big. Fast forward to last week when, out of the blue, he came up with a comment about how he had thought my 'investment' hadn't been thought out overly well... but after two months of pumping $500+ of gas each month, he was starting to think I wasn't so dumb after all... :cool:

If the Model III was produced like iPhones or PlayStations, there would be people camped out for weeks in advance to be first in the door of the Tesla store for a M-III.
 
One thing that bothers me is that the three most mainstream car manufacturers with ev's, namely GM, BMW, and Nissan do zilch advertising on TV to even get the idea of ev's into people's minds. An ev would be an awesome choice for two or more car families as their local commuter vehicle but the idea is just not being promoted at all to the average consumer.

I've seen ads for the Chevy Volt, BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf, but you do have to be paying close attention.
 
The original article is confusing availability of multiple options with "supply". There is no problem with supply in Canada. Tesla will ship as many Model Ss to Canada as are ordered, with the same delay as to elsewhere. As far as I know it is not difficult to buy a LEAF, the last time I looked into this the dealer had two on the lot. And so on. The market isn't supply-constrained, in my opinion it's ignorance-and-laziness-constrained. The majority of people haven't a clue, and if they do have a clue they can't be bothered to investigate. The notion that they have to be able to drive 1000 km tomorrow, just in case, seems to hold sway.

This will change over time. I think there will be a tipping point, probably within 5 years.
 
The market isn't supply-constrained, in my opinion it's ignorance-and-laziness-constrained. The majority of people haven't a clue, and if they do have a clue they can't be bothered to investigate.

I think there's a bit more to it than that. Car buying has a very large "emotional" component to it, with very strong attachments by many to certain brands over others. There are only a tiny number of EVs available compared to the selection of ICE cars. If none of the current EVs satisfy the buyer's emotional needs, they will move on. I think the only thing that's going to improve the situation is for there to be a much wider selection to choose from.
 
I think there's a bit more to it than that.

..unless one considers brand loyalty to be ignorant and lazy. :) If you're buying a highly complex, expensive piece of machinery only because of the badge on the front, without investigating any alternatives, then you are making a decision in ignorance and not putting the effort in to investigate alternatives.

But you're right, this is a big part of the problem. The tipping point will come when either more people overcome their own inertia (emotional or otherwise) and look into EVs, or else the traditional manufacturers actually start making competitive EVs. I think they are hamstrung by their own competition. If they really tried to make and sell great EVs, they would cannibalize their own sales of ICEs.
 
..unless one considers brand loyalty to be ignorant and lazy. :) If you're buying a highly complex, expensive piece of machinery only because of the badge on the front, without investigating any alternatives, then you are making a decision in ignorance and not putting the effort in to investigate alternatives.

Yep. But there are people who will do that. Or maybe, for example, they just like the style of a Volkswagen Golf over a Ford Focus, even though they are both compact hatchbacks.

I think they are hamstrung by their own competition. If they really tried to make and sell great EVs, they would cannibalize their own sales of ICEs.

But that might not be a bad thing. Someone who buys a Honda Accord over a Honda Civic is still buying a Honda. Same thing if they offered a pure EV (Okay, Honda was a bad example since they seem to be going down the "fool cell" road, but you know what I mean!).
 
As for the emotional and the "need to go 1000km tomorrow" points, I think there is something to both of those arguments, as well as ignorance. When I go to the CBC comments sections of news stories, I always read comments by people who equate all electric cars, even the Tesla as glorified golf carts. I don't know if it's their conservative (small c) mindset, their buying into pro-oil climate change denial mindset, or their just being disinterested into research, but they don't even open their minds.

As for the 1000km range argument, I always reply that I when I drive to visit my relatives in the State, the nearest one is a 2 day drive. I never go longer than 2 to 3 hours without a bite to eat, or a bathroom break anyway. A stop to recharge the car during those moments isn't that much of a burden.
 
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Maybe it's a regional thing. All I ever see here are truck ads.

The recent Volt ad I saw had a tie in to the "Tomorrowland" movie that came out a while back.

The i3 ad featured some kid sneaking out with his Dad's car.

I recall seeing ads for the Leaf, but that was a while back, and I don't remember the specifics.

But yes, the ratio is probably 1000:1 with truck ads!

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When I go to the CBC comments sections of news stories, I always read comments by people who equate all electric cars, even the Tesla as glorified golf carts. I don't know if it's their conservative (small c) mindset, their buying into pro-oil climate change denial mindset, or their just being disinterested into research, but they don't even open their minds.

I think it's just drivel from people who don't like the cars for any number of reasons. Even on these forums I see all kinds of venom directed at GM for making "crappy cars" (which, IMHO is not true). People get very emotional when it comes to what brand or type of car they drive.
 
Probably best to leave the political affiliation comments out of your arguments...there are plenty of small c folks who are both green, and drive Teslas...


As for the emotional and the "need to go 1000km tomorrow" points, I think there is something to both of those arguments, as well as ignorance. When I go to the CBC comments sections of news stories, I always read comments by people who equate all electric cars, even the Tesla as glorified golf carts. I don't know if it's their conservative (small c) mindset, their buying into pro-oil climate change denial mindset, or their just being disinterested into research, but they don't even open their minds.

As for the 1000km range argument, I always reply that I when I drive to visit my relatives in the State, the nearest one is a 2 day drive. I never go longer than 2 to 3 hours without a bite to eat, or a bathroom break anyway. A stop to recharge the car during those moments isn't that much of a burden.
 
Probably best to leave the political affiliation comments out of your arguments...there are plenty of small c folks who are both green, and drive Teslas...

And, as I've often said, even if you drive a Tesla for reasons that have nothing to do with the environment, the environment still wins. If electric cars are only marketed towards the green environmentalists, they will forever be limited to that slice of the market.