Estimated range of Model X

scottf200 · Jul 18, 2015

Estimated range of Model X spreadsheet

From my post in another thread ... thinking the specific topic would be better to be it's own thread.

O-G said:
Does this mean that the range of the MX will be 5% less than the current MS? 270 - 14 = 255?

Hmm ... I was thinking the
90 kWh Model S was 5.9% more than the 85 kWh Model S and then
90 kWh Model X was 5% less than the 90 kWh Model S.
So the Model X would be about the same as the current Model S. Someone help with the interpretations.

[update]
After my post I saw Elon's stating about 6% as well.
Three Dog Day | Tesla Motors

90 kWh Pack
New buyers now have the option of upgrading the pack energy from 85 to 90 kWh for $3k, which provides about 6% increased range. For example, this takes our current longest range model, the 85D, to almost 300 miles of highway range at 65mph.

LiveBlog: Tesla Motors Super Secret Model S Surprise Announcement | Transport Evolved

13:23
Ludacris mode will be offered on the Model X -- the Model X will be 10% heavier, so 3.3 (ish) 0-60 time due to higher centre of gravity -- but just a guess, says Musk.
13:22
90kWH was developed for the X -- 10% greater energy useage and 10% larger.
Net impact on range with the Model X with 90 kWH will be about 5%.

[/update]

NigelM · Jul 18, 2015

I think Scott's scenarios look about right; however, I take on board Elon's comment that the larger battery was developed specifically for the X so I am now thinking that there will be no upgradable 85kWh battery for the X but it will be 90kWh only.

scottf200 · Jul 18, 2015

NigelM said:
I think Scott's scenarios look about right; however, I take on board Elon's comment that the larger battery was developed specifically for the X so I am now thinking that there will be no upgradable 85kWh battery for the X but it will be 90kWh only.

I was thinking the same thinkg that the Model X is 90 kWh only. I meant to correct that in my Google doc. I had cut-n-pasted from left columns and only fixed the lower right quadrant labels. Will correct/replace sheet in my opening post.

O-G · Jul 19, 2015

I'm still confused by Elon's statements and the interpretations thereof. Elon said the net impact on range to the MX will be about 5%. Is that compared to the old 85S or the new 90S? It seems to me it should be based on the old 85S. (ie "net impact") From my original post, I came up with 255 mile range. (270-14=255) From Scottf200, he gets 286 for the P90D model. It all becomes significant when you add real life issues. I believe that these estimates are 100% charge numbers. I understand that to maintain battery life you are supposed to charge to only 80% for daily use, plus if you need extra heat or extra cooling, stuck in traffic for awhile, you really don't want to get down to zero, etc, etc..... it all seems to start getting down to a "practical" 200 mile range which is a problem for me. Most of the time, I drive 100+ miles in a day. Many times approaching the 175-200 mile number. I can't imagine every day worrying about whether I'm going to make it. It's not long distance stuff through a supercharger location, not overnight at a hotel, just a lot of local travel between my business locations. I have an early MX signature reservation but now I'm at the point of wondering whether this can really work for me. All these 3+ years, I've thought "300 miles? Perfect. I'm always under that!" Now I'm really wondering. Possibly some current owners of MS can help me understand the difference between the "stated" miles and the "real" miles.

dsm363 · Jul 19, 2015

O-G said:
I'm still confused by Elon's statements and the interpretations thereof. Elon said the net impact on range to the MX will be about 5%. Is that compared to the old 85S or the new 90S? It seems to me it should be based on the old 85S. (ie "net impact") From my original post, I came up with 255 mile range. (270-14=255) From Scottf200, he gets 286 for the P90D model. It all becomes significant when you add real life issues. I believe that these estimates are 100% charge numbers. I understand that to maintain battery life you are supposed to charge to only 80% for daily use, plus if you need extra heat or extra cooling, stuck in traffic for awhile, you really don't want to get down to zero, etc, etc..... it all seems to start getting down to a "practical" 200 mile range which is a problem for me. Most of the time, I drive 100+ miles in a day. Many times approaching the 175-200 mile number. I can't imagine every day worrying about whether I'm going to make it. It's not long distance stuff through a supercharger location, not overnight at a hotel, just a lot of local travel between my business locations. I have an early MX signature reservation but now I'm at the point of wondering whether this can really work for me. All these 3+ years, I've thought "300 miles? Perfect. I'm always under that!" Now I'm really wondering. Possibly some current owners of MS can help me understand the difference between the "stated" miles and the "real" miles.

If you drive that much charging to 90% shouldn't be a problem. The Rated miles are based on EPA tests and real range depends on many factors. There are some sticky threads that cover this. I'd imagined the 90kWh Model X will get 5% less range than what the same pack on the Model S gets from Elon's past statements.

Oil4AsphaultOnly · Jul 19, 2015

O-G said:
I'm still confused by Elon's statements and the interpretations thereof. Elon said the net impact on range to the MX will be about 5%. Is that compared to the old 85S or the new 90S? It seems to me it should be based on the old 85S. (ie "net impact") From my original post, I came up with 255 mile range. (270-14=255) From Scottf200, he gets 286 for the P90D model. It all becomes significant when you add real life issues. I believe that these estimates are 100% charge numbers. I understand that to maintain battery life you are supposed to charge to only 80% for daily use, plus if you need extra heat or extra cooling, stuck in traffic for awhile, you really don't want to get down to zero, etc, etc..... it all seems to start getting down to a "practical" 200 mile range which is a problem for me. Most of the time, I drive 100+ miles in a day. Many times approaching the 175-200 mile number. I can't imagine every day worrying about whether I'm going to make it. It's not long distance stuff through a supercharger location, not overnight at a hotel, just a lot of local travel between my business locations. I have an early MX signature reservation but now I'm at the point of wondering whether this can really work for me. All these 3+ years, I've thought "300 miles? Perfect. I'm always under that!" Now I'm really wondering. Possibly some current owners of MS can help me understand the difference between the "stated" miles and the "real" miles.

You're suffering from range anxiety. It's a temporary malady that cures itself after about a week with your electric vehicle. I commute 55 miles daily with 100+ mile weekends in a leaf that only gets 83 miles (60 if going 75mph on the freeway in a california winter) on a full charge. Your MX will be getting 200+ miles and there are plenty of EVSE's in Washington (even if there's no superchargers along the way). Trust me, you'll be fine.

Matteo · Aug 4, 2015

scottf200 said:
90 kWh Model S was 5.9% more than the 85 kWh Model S and then

Yes, for that part I agree with you. I have the same EPA numbers for S:
Model S 90: 280 mii
Model S 90D: 286 mi
Model S P90D: 268 mi

scottf200 said:
90 kWh Model X was 5% less than the 90 kWh Model S.

I think you misunderstood that part. I recommend listening from 12:35 to 13:19 Ludicrous Mode Conference Call 2015-07-17 As you can hear, at 12:54 and 12:59 Elon says the "energy usage per mile will be roughly 10% higher than the S." Then he explains with this 5% improvement it will only be 5% higher than the S, that is in comparison to 85D. In your version you skipped the 10% worse part. Btw, the 10% worse range is not new information. In Feb 2014 Elon said Model X will have 10% worse range because of larger frontal area. Listen from 32:34. At 32:58 he says "energy consumption will be about 10% greater per kilometre" Elon Musk in Oslo 01.02.2014

So, based on the that, I would expect these EPA ratings:
Model X 70D 216 mi
Model X 90D 257 mi
Model X P90D 241 mi

Macgaver · Aug 4, 2015

I agree with Matteo, it is also how I did understand Elon's statement: with this 5% improvement it will only be 5% higher energy usage than the S

ptsagcy · Aug 8, 2015

See the link below for the announcement of SC's on the Florida Turnpike. It states the range for the MX as 230 miles. I wonder where they got that from and whether that is for the 70? I sure hope it is because that would make range for the 90 about 290!! If 230 is the range for the 85 or 90 that would be a bummer.

Tesla Charging Stations at the Turnpike

NigelM · Aug 8, 2015

ptsagcy said:
See the link below for the announcement of SC's on the Florida Turnpike. It states the range for the MX as 230 miles. I wonder where they got that from and whether that is for the 70? I sure hope it is because that would make range for the 90 about 290!! If 230 is the range for the 85 or 90 that would be a bummer.

Tesla Charging Stations at the Turnpike

That's the Spring/Summer newsletter so no way to know how old or how accurate/conservative that is; it's also certainly pre-90 announcement.

trialcritic · Aug 9, 2015

I suspect that they will start with a 90D and go up in a couple of years. I guess we have to wait at least 3 years to get to 400-500 mile range. This will only happen with the next generation batteries. As Tesla CTO JB Straubel has pointed out, batteries double in capacity every 10 years. Elon Musk said that they can do 500 miles right now, but the car will be too expensive.

WarpedOne · Aug 9, 2015

I guess we have to wait at least 3 years to get to 400-500 mile

Will not happen.
Musk word is he expects to offer 5% bigger battery each year. With rounding that translates into 95,100 and 105.
105 will have ~335miles of EPA range. They will need 10 years of 5% increment to reach 500.

MrBoylan · Aug 10, 2015

WarpedOne said:
Will not happen.
Musk word is he expects to offer 5% bigger battery each year. With rounding that translates into 95,100 and 105.
105 will have ~335miles of EPA range. They will need 10 years of 5% increment to reach 500.

Or one big breakthrough in battery tech (as opposed to a bunch of incremental ones).

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Estimated range of Model X

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