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The Model S 40 was a 60 in waiting, could current the 85 be a 10x?

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Cattledog

Active Member
Supporting Member
Feb 9, 2012
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San Antonio, TX
Tesla shipped the 40 kWh Model S with a 60 kWh pack and then software limited it to 40 kWh. Once this was revealed, 40 kWh owners could pay Tesla to make a software adjustment and give them access to the 60 kWh pack that was in the car. Fast forward...

Many are speculating the Model X will come with a 10x kWh pack (let's say 105 kWh), and that when that happens Tesla will simultaneously offer this same 105 kWh pack with the Model S. Of course many people with orders for Model S in will want to shift to this pack. Could be a real PR and logistics nightmare for Tesla as orders are changed/cancelled, or perhaps shifted to Model X. However...

...what if for awhile now Tesla has been shipping 105 kWh packs with the 85s and software limiting them to 85 kWh? When Model X is revealed and design studio offers a 105 kWh option for the Model X and S, they can also offer to the last few thousand VIN numbers that they can upgrade for a fee. We've been expecting chemistry improvements these last 3 years, current 85s could weigh about the same with a higher efficiency battery. Of course if you were a VIN right before that special number you'd have a gripe, but a much smaller one than if you'd ordered a couple days before the announcement.

I'm not sure I'd handicap this a probable, but would definitely score it as possible.
 
Sure it's possible, but they would be throwing a lot of money out the door. An extra 15-20 kWh without compensation to Tesla on each car would cut seriously into gross margins, even if 50% of those people decided to upgrade.

Also, although some would upgrade, a lot of people would realize living with an 85kWh pack that they really don't need anything bigger. It would be easier to sell before they buy the car and probably harder after.
 
Tesla shipped the 40 kWh Model S with a 60 kWh pack and then software limited it to 40 kWh. Once this was revealed, 40 kWh owners could pay Tesla to make a software adjustment and give them access to the 60 kWh pack that was in the car. Fast forward...

Many are speculating the Model X will come with a 10x kWh pack (let's say 105 kWh), and that when that happens Tesla will simultaneously offer this same 105 kWh pack with the Model S. Of course many people with orders for Model S in will want to shift to this pack. Could be a real PR and logistics nightmare for Tesla as orders are changed/cancelled, or perhaps shifted to Model X. However...

...what if for awhile now Tesla has been shipping 105 kWh packs with the 85s and software limiting them to 85 kWh? When Model X is revealed and design studio offers a 105 kWh option for the Model X and S, they can also offer to the last few thousand VIN numbers that they can upgrade for a fee. We've been expecting chemistry improvements these last 3 years, current 85s could weigh about the same with a higher efficiency battery. Of course if you were a VIN right before that special number you'd have a gripe, but a much smaller one than if you'd ordered a couple days before the announcement.

I'm not sure I'd handicap this a probable, but would definitely score it as possible.

I'd say there's a much more probable way for Tesla to deal with the issue of simultaneously offering the highest capacity pack in both the X and S:

They will simply ship the X with an 85kWh pack.
 
I'd say there's a much more probable way for Tesla to deal with the issue of simultaneously offering the highest capacity pack in both the X and S:

They will simply ship the X with an 85kWh pack.

Agree, as it seems the Model S & X are a shared platform at this point, with battery pack design and capacity. If anything they both may get future improvements in time, 2+ years or so maybe as battery technology is slower moving that computers - there is no Moore's law ;-) for batteries and Tesla is already pushing the envelope on purity/chemistry more than others with less affordable options.

Same thing with Model 3 and its various form factors; 4 door, 2 door, smaller SUV, etc. Those may all have smaller range at first but may see improvements in future as well, say 205 or so to start using 60kw in a design to start with their lower weight, then using chemistry improvements long-term.

I bet we will be seeing 100+ kw in these cars within about 5 years, maybe 120-140 in 8 years or so, and then hopefully some big battery developments will occur...