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Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

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I noticed Musk say recently "late 2017". Producing 10,000 cars in Q4 2017 meets the 2017 commitment. But in reality is more of a 2018 release, especially for battery planning.

I like to think that Tesla is past the teething stage and that Musk knows that achievable public deadlines are important.


http://www.eia.gov/conference/2015/pdf/presentations/straubel.pdf

The price of solar chart on page 21 is from 2009.

 
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I wish they would get the slides right. First "2017", then "Late 2017", now "2018". It's supposed to say 2019 and they keep misprinting them!

Seriously, start thinking 2019 now, that way the inevitable delay to 2020 won't sting so bad.
 
Are those necessarily contradictory statements? Beginning production in late 2017 could be compatible with deliveries beginning in early 2018.

My interception of this tweet:
ricardo-reyes-tweet-on-model-3.jpg
is "The report on the web about the Model 3 been delayed until 2018 is false, we are still holding on to the original release plan".
 

Yeah, I think the reveal will happen on time, but can't see Model 3 shipping in late 2017. Maybe some token deliveries to save face, but last we heard there was nothing locked down on the 3 and we're about 2 years and 5 months from launch. The Model X was revealed in Feb 2012 with a "late 2013" delivery date. Three years and 4 months later, we're still waiting.
 
The only reason I'll have to wait until 2019 to get a Model ≡ is that will be the first Production of the Coupé with Falcon Wing Doors! The Model ≡ Sedan will reach buyers in 2017. The Model ≡ Crossover should be available in 2018. The Model ≡ Cabriolet may debut with the Coupé in 2019.
 
DISCLAIMER: I am just some guy on the internet. I have no insider information about Tesla Motors, their upcoming plans, or their future product lines. In short, I am just as clueless as the rest of you. I just really like what Tesla is doing and have high hopes for the future of the company. I do pay close attention to public statements by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, and Franz von Holzhausen. Using that information, along with what I have seen them accomplish thus far, I attempt to extrapolate the best case scenario for their possible course of action going forward. For the most jaded of Critics, Naysayers, Bears, and $#0r+s my outlook will undoubtedly seem rather childish, naive, misguided, and over-the-top optimistic. To those people I say [CONTINUOUS STREAM OF EXPLETIVES DELETED], so there! :p
 
DISCLAIMER: I am just some guy on the internet. I have no insider information about Tesla Motors, their upcoming plans, or their future product lines. In short, I am just as clueless as the rest of you. I just really like what Tesla is doing and have high hopes for the future of the company.

You're also one of the more optimistic of the Model 3 followers, and I share your optimism. Most of the time. Sometimes you throw out opinions that I really would like to be true, but with Tesla's history it's tough to be so confident all the time.

The only reason I'll have to wait until 2019 to get a Model ≡ is that will be the first Production of the Coupé with Falcon Wing Doors! The Model ≡ Sedan will reach buyers in 2017. The Model ≡ Crossover should be available in 2018. The Model ≡ Cabriolet may debut with the Coupé in 2019.

This is one of those times I think you're too overly optimistic. I think the only Model 3's that will be out in 2017 will be the early adopter vehicles, such as perhaps a signature series. I don't think they'll be in full production until sometime in 2018. But then, you simply said "will reach buyers", so I guess that counts.
 
I don't think they'll be in full production until sometime in 2018.

They will not be in "full production" to around 2019/2020. We know there is a scale-up of production from the start in 2017 to full production of GF-I/Fremount reached sometime around 2020. You might think of "full production of what they can produce from the batteries manufactured by GF-I in late 2017"? More up-scaling when GF-II and more car manufacturers are online.


Regarding new models: Tesla has as far as I have understood a goal of being able to introduce new models/variants each year. But if they are ready for it yet is one open question. I hope - and halfway believe - that Gen-III CUV (Model Y?) will get out one or two years after the Model 3. For future models/variants for this as there are many who "stand in line": New varieties/editions of both the Model S/3/X/Y (stw/cupe/cab/limo/van?), new Roadster, a potential supercar ("Model Z"), a pickup truck, maybe even smaller/cheaper car than Model 3 ("Model C")?
 
They will not be in "full production" to around 2019/2020.

Okay, yeah, I worded that waaaay poorly. In my head I'm thinking that if they produced at a level equivalent to Model S production, that's full production. But as you remind me, the goal is 500,000 cars a year, not 50,000.

So to put it differently, I don't think Tesla will manufacture more than perhaps two or three thousand (and that's being VERY generous) in 2017 as they gradually ramp up the initial builds through the production line.
 
So to put it differently, I don't think Tesla will manufacture more than perhaps two or three thousand (and that's being VERY generous) in 2017 as they gradually ramp up the initial builds through the production line.

That depends on what "late 2017" is :p If it is late nov./dec. you are probably spot on, but if its early oct. (eg. Q4) I surly hope they do better then that... But now first let us see the ramp up of the Model X, then we can start speculating more on this :)