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Q2 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

How many deliveries do you expect for Q1 2015?


  • Total voters
    66
  • Poll closed .
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hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
3,780
33,050
Germany
I know we have this for the whole year, but I thought it would be fun doing this just for the quarter, too.
Please post your prediction for Q2 deliveries as a number and also enter the poll, so we can see results graphically also.

Deadline: June 30, because on July 1-3 (on the 3rd Tesla announces the sales number) there will be a lot of new numbers out making the guessing much easier.

Shareholder Letter Q1 said 10,045 deliveries in Q1, outlook of 10,000 to 11,000 in Q2.


My estimate: 12,000 deliveries
 
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Even mods can't fix a poll question/answers. Only option is to start a new thread, and then I can close this one.

O.k., thanks. But I guess it is too late now and most people don´t seem to care, so I will leave it like that.

Would be cool though if everybody did post their actual number in addition to participating in the poll so we can find a winner in the end!!
 
Why are we so optimistic here? The median is currently between 11,500 and 11,999. The guidance was between 10,000 and 11,000 deliveries and 12,500 production. Anyway, before I add my opinion, I would like to show you guys Logical Thought's opinion (AKA Mark Spiegel, the owner of Stanphyl, a hedge fund that is short Tesla):



However, he updated it when I called him out in the comments section of a recent Randy Carlson article. This is what he updated to:



My own prediction: 11,400 cars delivered, 13,400 produced.
 
I guess because we agree Tesla lowballed guidance.

we're in dangerous territory by propagating this notion so much...next thing is the media picks this up and starts reporting "experts" polls projecting 13k deliveries in Q2.... next thing we know is that 13k is expected by the media and the Street and traders so then even if Tesla were to publish 12000 deliveries the stock tanks 5-10% instead of popping up 5-10%
 
I'm still wondering how Tesla will account for revenue from Powerwall sales. Do utilities and companies that are placing massive orders pay in advance with these types of projects? Very curious how many "reservations" Tesla has received and if investors will care, since Tesla isn't requiring a deposit for "reservations" from individual people. Has anyone who made a reservation for a Powerwall or Powerpack been asked to pay a deposit?
 
The projects pay the installers. The installers pay Tesla when after an order is shipped. Net 30 or whatever is the contract.

anyway, I would estimate 11,133 for Q2 but I think they may not make it entirely clear the exact CPO sales number.
 
we're in dangerous territory by propagating this notion so much...next thing is the media picks this up and starts reporting "experts" polls projecting 13k deliveries in Q2.... next thing we know is that 13k is expected by the media and the Street and traders so then even if Tesla were to publish 12000 deliveries the stock tanks 5-10% instead of popping up 5-10%

The fact that used to happen on such a regular basis then proven wrong creates a resistance to it happening again.

Reports on credible financial news sites on "whisper" Tesla numbers used to get out of control.

Less so lately.
 
Why are we so optimistic here? The median is currently between 11,500 and 11,999. The guidance was between 10,000 and 11,000 deliveries and 12,500 production.

Europe had 800 registrations more in Apr+May (approx 1800) than Jan+Feb (approx 1000). No CPO program here. No known problems with factory or logistics fits this picture. No reason for me to believe that relative demand should be significantly weaker in other parts of the world or that Tesla would change the proportions by which they distribute by region. So assuming Europe has about 1000 more for whole of Q2 over Q1 and the same for rest of the world gives 12,000.

Disclaimer: I am long and not trading any shares, options etc. based on this, neither should you. I could be completely wrong and US sales could be down as much as Europe is up or June could be down in Europe as much as Apr+May were up.
 
we're in dangerous territory by propagating this notion so much...next thing is the media picks this up and starts reporting "experts" polls projecting 13k deliveries in Q2.... next thing we know is that 13k is expected by the media and the Street and traders so then even if Tesla were to publish 12000 deliveries the stock tanks 5-10% instead of popping up 5-10%

Totally agree. I would rather reduce expectations and have a big beat than the other way around. I am not confident that the release of the numbers will be a big positive catalyst....I am more hopeful that some good information will come out of the TMConnect about a week later.
 
Europe had 800 registrations more in Apr+May (approx 1800) than Jan+Feb (approx 1000). No CPO program here. No known problems with factory or logistics fits this picture. No reason for me to believe that relative demand should be significantly weaker in other parts of the world or that Tesla would change the proportions by which they distribute by region. So assuming Europe has about 1000 more for whole of Q2 over Q1 and the same for rest of the world gives 12,000.

Disclaimer: I am long and not trading any shares, options etc. based on this, neither should you. I could be completely wrong and US sales could be down as much as Europe is up or June could be down in Europe as much as Apr+May were up.

Except then you look at the 70D being released in Q2 and already stated as 1/3 of their demand with most of those going to NA and I have to think that we are likely to see a handy beat this Q

11550
 
Waalllll, you guys know about me and significant digits

or are you not paying attention?:biggrin:

So, in line with my 6 x 10^4 for CY 2015, I'll go with 1.2 X 10^4 for 2Q.

​I can hardly lose......