Teslas mission statement:to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."
SelfDrivingCar (shared) fleets will be a massiv catalyst for EV adaption.
A SDC can drive to charge itself up when the owner doesn't have a garage or is at work. So range would become even less of a concern.
And fleet cars will financially superior to any hybrid or ICE
Even at peak rushhour there are only 15% of cars in use, so each SDC fleet, can replace up to 5 regular cars. Which reduces the need to replace each ICE one to one with an EV.
So we would need to build far less cars (EVs) overall to cover everyone personal transport needs.
Steven Jurvetson: "Travis (Uber CEO) recently told me that if by 2020 Teslas are all autonomous, he wants to buy all of them (whole years production)."
5.21.15 17th Annual Top 10 Tech Trends - YouTube
SDC fleets will probably take up at least 50% of the whole "personal transport" market.
The market will be an oligopoly between the 2-3 biggest players out there.
Reason: Big fleet means shorter waiting times, higher choice of vehicle, better prices and the killer feature of ridesharing that Uber already offers in SF, where you save 50% of the fare if the Cab drives a detour of 2minutes and picks another passenger up that is taking a similar router.
Especially the morning/evening commutes will be full of ride sharing, since in the morning everyone wants to get into the city and in the evening everyone wants to go out of the cities.
So for that reason the barrier to entry will be extreme high, which is also the reason for the super high valuation of Uber since they seem to be on the way to get a monopoly to 50% of the world personal transport market.
Now it could happen that the only player in 2020 that is capable to produce enough EVs to roll out a SDC fleet is Tesla. Since no one else has the battery supply capacity.
Tesla will partner with Google: Although Elon declined any rumours, and even stated that he thinks that Google is on the wrong path with their technology I think this is just the biggest trump that Elon has up his sleeve.
- The reason that Elon gave is: "Googles system costs 100k$ therefore its not feasible" its to ridiculous to be his actual opinion, Elon is smart enough to know that research equipment is far more expensive then mass market production, also there is nothigh magical or inherently expensive in the Velodyne radars (reason from first principal Elon
)
-SpaceX just partnered with Google for a 10B$ project, so Google likes to work with Elon
-Elon stays 2x a week at Sergeys house so they are probably really good buddies.
-Google once wanted to buy Tesla to have a steady supply of production cars for their SDC rollout.
-A leading person for Googls SDC team already hinted that Google is not interested to sell their technolgy to everyone, and are more interested to become a competitor to Uber. (which is why Uber created their own SDC research team)
Since henry Ford there was never an opportunity where it was that straight forward to capture 50% of the world personal transport market.
I as a shareholder would want Elon to throw everything at it to become part of the SDC fleet business.
I would like to hear opinions to my theory.
Morgan Stanley report on SDCs, for those who still dont see the light.
http://www.wisburg.com/wp-content/u...LF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
SelfDrivingCar (shared) fleets will be a massiv catalyst for EV adaption.
A SDC can drive to charge itself up when the owner doesn't have a garage or is at work. So range would become even less of a concern.
And fleet cars will financially superior to any hybrid or ICE
Even at peak rushhour there are only 15% of cars in use, so each SDC fleet, can replace up to 5 regular cars. Which reduces the need to replace each ICE one to one with an EV.
So we would need to build far less cars (EVs) overall to cover everyone personal transport needs.
Steven Jurvetson: "Travis (Uber CEO) recently told me that if by 2020 Teslas are all autonomous, he wants to buy all of them (whole years production)."
5.21.15 17th Annual Top 10 Tech Trends - YouTube
SDC fleets will probably take up at least 50% of the whole "personal transport" market.
The market will be an oligopoly between the 2-3 biggest players out there.
Reason: Big fleet means shorter waiting times, higher choice of vehicle, better prices and the killer feature of ridesharing that Uber already offers in SF, where you save 50% of the fare if the Cab drives a detour of 2minutes and picks another passenger up that is taking a similar router.
Especially the morning/evening commutes will be full of ride sharing, since in the morning everyone wants to get into the city and in the evening everyone wants to go out of the cities.
So for that reason the barrier to entry will be extreme high, which is also the reason for the super high valuation of Uber since they seem to be on the way to get a monopoly to 50% of the world personal transport market.
Now it could happen that the only player in 2020 that is capable to produce enough EVs to roll out a SDC fleet is Tesla. Since no one else has the battery supply capacity.
Tesla will partner with Google: Although Elon declined any rumours, and even stated that he thinks that Google is on the wrong path with their technology I think this is just the biggest trump that Elon has up his sleeve.
- The reason that Elon gave is: "Googles system costs 100k$ therefore its not feasible" its to ridiculous to be his actual opinion, Elon is smart enough to know that research equipment is far more expensive then mass market production, also there is nothigh magical or inherently expensive in the Velodyne radars (reason from first principal Elon
)-SpaceX just partnered with Google for a 10B$ project, so Google likes to work with Elon
-Elon stays 2x a week at Sergeys house so they are probably really good buddies.
-Google once wanted to buy Tesla to have a steady supply of production cars for their SDC rollout.
-A leading person for Googls SDC team already hinted that Google is not interested to sell their technolgy to everyone, and are more interested to become a competitor to Uber. (which is why Uber created their own SDC research team)
Since henry Ford there was never an opportunity where it was that straight forward to capture 50% of the world personal transport market.
I as a shareholder would want Elon to throw everything at it to become part of the SDC fleet business.
I would like to hear opinions to my theory.
Morgan Stanley report on SDCs, for those who still dont see the light.
http://www.wisburg.com/wp-content/u...LF-DRIVING-THE-NEW-AUTO-INDUSTRY-PARADIGM.pdf
