Tesla's Troubling Risk-Reward Profile ... by (wait for it...) John Peterson.
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He's been busy. Tesla is knocking down his arguments faster and faster, so seems he needs to keep spawning new ones. We should go through his old work and document all his claims for where Tesla would fail, and keep a running score.
It seems that all those calculations depend on peculiarities of local grids.
If you assume that coal is the first energy source to be ramped down over night, because it is the most expensive, then the question is if night time consumption, at a specific location, can be covered without coal.
- If yes, the adding EVs will in general not change that, as, in general, wind power production is growing faster than EV consumption.
- If not, then adding EVs may consume more coal, but the situation will change as soon as enough coal plants are closed, and/or enough other sources are added, to cover night demand without coal.
If you assume that coal is the second most expensive source, and the second to ramp down, then it gets even more complicated, as you might have certain effects over a certain range of consumption, meaning you might lower or increase CO2 when adding EVs, and then have the opposite effect when adding even more. And additionally, it will depend on the amount of coal plants being closed, and the amount of wind and NG and other sources being added, over the same period of time as EVs are being added.
Buying an EV is one thing, being able to drive it beyond city limits another...
Disclosure: I have no direct or indirect interest in Tesla and nothing to gain or lose from its future stock price movements. It should, however, be an entertaining show to watch from the sidelines. I am a former director and current stockholder of Axion Power International (AXPW.OB), which has developed a robust and affordable third-generation lead-carbon battery for micro-hybrid, railroad and stationary energy storage applications.
And I hope it doesn't escape anyone that TM's success will most certainly shift demand away from Axion.
So yeah, I'd say that there is a very real "indirect interest" and he has lot's to gain from writing biased articles.
Twilight Blue Roadster 2.5 - #1098 / Grey Model S Performance - #1459
But since NOTHING in the US is powered by 100% coal no one should even bring it up, EVER! </rage>
More like to justify building more nuclear since wind cannot practically replace a coal plant.
Sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from a rigged demonstration.
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