2015 Q2 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

32no · Jun 13, 2015

Hey guys, the end of Q2 is about half a month away, and delivery numbers will be reported by July 3. It's time to start discussions.

I have a feeling that they will beat the delivery (10-11k cars) and production (12.5k cars) guidance. I'll outline why:

There are 64 workdays in Q2. Tesla went into Q1 with about 1000 cars/week or 200 cars/day. Even without ramping up at all, this results in 12,800 cars produced. I have reason to believe that at least through June, Tesla will run at 1100 cars/week or 220 cars/day. There are 22 workdays in June, so this would increase the total to 13,240 cars produced.

For deliveries, this seems to be the case:

United States:
Between April and May, Hybrid Cars estimates say that Tesla delivered 4,200 cars in the US (1,900 in April and 2,400 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 5,500 cars in NA, or 5,100 cars in the US. I suspect Tesla will deliver at least 6,000 cars in the US in Q2, and possibly up to 6,500 cars.

Canada:
Tesla delivered 167 cars in Canada in April, and assuming a conservative average of 150/month for Canada results in 450 deliveries in Canada for Q2.

Europe:
Tesla delivered 1,882 cars in April and May in Europe (818 in April, 1064 in May). Last quarter, Tesla delivered 3,543 cars in Europe. I would guess that Tesla will deliver at the very least around 3,000 cars in Europe in Q2, and possibly up to ~3,500 cars.

China:
Tesla delivered around 574 cars in China in April (thanks Gerasimental), and will probably deliver at least 1,000 throughout Q2, and possibly up to 1,500 cars.

Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, Other:
Probably around 400 cars.

Total: 10,450-11,950 cars

I also subtracted around 400 cars that will be from the CPO program.

We will see on July 3.

svp · Jun 15, 2015

According to this Hong Kong may be more than many people expect. Ev sales claim ~50 cars delivered in May and 420 so far this year. That means ~80/ month in Hong Kong alone.

bsd · Jun 20, 2015

I'm charging at the Toronto Lawrence location and the lot has about 70 cars to be delivered.

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1434837592.991697.jpg

32no · Jun 20, 2015

bsd said:
I'm charging at the Toronto Lawrence location and the lot has about 70 cars to be delivered.View attachment 84849

How do you know those are all cars for delivery and that some or even most are CPO inventory?

hobbes · Jun 21, 2015

It would be fun to have a prediction competition for Q2 - not sure if this is the right thread here (Q2) or over at the prediction competition for the whole of 2015, but I´ll start anyway:

12,000 deliveries for Q2

Deadline: June 30, as on July 1-3 (on the 3rd Tesla announces the sales number) there will be a lot of new numbers out making the guessing much easier.

bsd · Jun 21, 2015

32no said:
How do you know those are all cars for delivery and that some or even most are CPO inventory?

You're right: I don't know. And I've never been there after Q end to compare. The cars by the SC stalls had notes about being QC'd scrawled on their windshields and were 70D and 85D, but I can't generalize to the lot.

ArtInCT · Jun 21, 2015

New Model S deliveries sport a white plastic wrap on the front bumper and the hood and also on the rear bumper. Not long thereafter, as cars are readied for delivery prep, the wrap is removed. However, all newly delivered cars have the new car window sticker which shows all the details and options affixed on the passenger side and a smaller barcode label on the driver's side front window. CPO cars would not have the factory stickers nor the white wrap.

Car4CivilizedAge · Jun 21, 2015

hobbes said:
It would be fun to have a prediction competition for Q2 - not sure if this is the right thread here (Q2) or over at the prediction competition for the whole of 2015, but I´ll start anyway:

12,000 deliveries for Q2

Deadline: June 30, as on July 1-3 (on the 3rd Tesla announces the sales number) there will be a lot of new numbers out making the guessing much easier.

My guess currently is 12,150 model S. I will update one more time before deadline

hobbes · Jun 21, 2015

Decided to set up a new thread for this anyway, because I thought it would be nice to have a poll for this, too:
Q2 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

schonelucht · Jun 22, 2015

While it's fun to speculate on the numbers, personally, that is not what I am looking for in the quarterly report this time. By the time Tesla reports, the X configurator should be open for the public, there should be a hard date on the first delivery and I would even expect an update from Elon during the CC on how many pre-orders confirmed (hoping for a question like that to come up). Any of those things don't happen and I don't see an easy path anymore to 55k deliveries this year.

hobbes · Jun 22, 2015

schonelucht said:
While it's fun to speculate on the numbers, personally, that is not what I am looking for in the quarterly report this time. By the time Tesla reports, the X configurator should be open for the public, there should be a hard date on the first delivery and I would even expect an update from Elon during the CC on how many pre-orders confirmed (hoping for a question like that to come up). Any of those things don't happen and I don't see an easy path anymore to 55k deliveries this year.

We will have the delivery numbers announced on July 3 way ahead of the earnings report, so we can separate the fun part from the serious bigger picture, on which I agree with you. It´s all about the X start and ramp and maybe also storage pre-orders.

Johann Koeber · Jun 22, 2015

Is July 3 a holiday in the US? Will we see the numbers on the third of July or on the monday after that?

uselesslogin · Jun 22, 2015

Johann Koeber said:
Is July 3 a holiday in the US? Will we see the numbers on the third of July or on the monday after that?

July 3rd is a holiday but so was April 3rd. Although it is less likely Tesla is going to be open July 3rd. Still, since they said within 3 days of the end of the quarter I would expect the numbers on the 2nd or 3rd.

RiverBrick · Jun 22, 2015

There will be a record quarter in Canada. The P85D and 85D continue to be popular and now 70Ds are popping up all over the place.

What's new since Q2 2014
----------------------------------
1) The return of the $5,000 rebate in BC.
2) The D (already mentioned, but worth repeating since AWD is coveted in Canada.)
3) Huge center in Montreal (before there was just a hole-in-the-wall service center with a few desks shoved into a cramped space for sales.)
4) Pop-up stores (Ottawa, Quebec City, and probably other locations I don't know about.)
5) Supercharger presence. (At this time last there was not a single open site in Canada and only one, Squamish, under construction. Now there are 14).

For sales growth in countries where TM has had a presence for 1.5 years or more, Canada is probably number one at this time.

Benz · Jul 2, 2015

Q2 2015: 11,507

Total H1 2015:

10,045 + 11,507 = 21,552

In six months almost as many Tesla Model S deliveries as in full year 2013.

That's significant growth.

hockeythug · Jul 2, 2015

I'll cross post:

From the Q4 letter, around 55k delivers for 2015, 40% in the in the first half of the year. First half actual deliveries were 21,552 so we are just 448 off through the first half of the year. I think we are good depending how the 4Q15 push goes.

Grendal · Jul 2, 2015

hockeythug said:
I'll cross post:

From the Q4 letter, around 55k delivers for 2015, 40% in the in the first half of the year. First half actual deliveries were 21,552 so we are just 448 off through the first half of the year. I think we are good depending how the 4Q15 push goes.

For three years Tesla has fallen short of their yearly totals. I'm pretty sure they lowballed this years number just to make sure they kill it. I think it will all depend on how fast the Model X ramp occurs. Elon said it will be fast so it shouldn't be an issue.

uselesslogin · Jul 2, 2015

Grendal said:
For three years Tesla has fallen short of their yearly totals. I'm pretty sure they lowballed this years number just to make sure they kill it. I think it will all depend on how fast the Model X ramp occurs. Elon said it will be fast so it shouldn't be an issue.

I'm pretty sure they are 1 for 3 - they beat annual guidance in 2013.

Benz · Jul 2, 2015

Q3 2015: 14,000 (S)?
Q4 2015: 20,000 (S+X)?

Would that be their plan?

chickensevil · Jul 6, 2015

Benz said:
Q3 2015: 14,000 (S)?
Q4 2015: 20,000 (S+X)?

Would that be their plan?

Seems about right. by the end of the year they should be pushing close to 2k a week which would be around 25,000 produced if running full speed throughout the entire quarter. If the new BIW line is coming up in Q3 that should give them enough time to get the X rolling on it, transition over the S and be ready to go full speed in Q4. And since the current BIW will stay active throughout the transition (I think it will be decommissioned after everything is rolling, but they said it would certainly be running while the other is brought online as opposed to what we saw with the new final assembly line) that line is running roughly what? 12k a quarter? So that means they only need to pull out 2k on the new line in Q3 to hit that 14k, and then fix any and all kinks and rolling full steam ahead for Q4. And if they need to can keep that old BIW line up until the end of the year to give full overlap.

The only criticism would be that we would expect at least a couple hundred Model X in Q3. Maybe that will be around 2,000??? That would be very nice

2015 Q2 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

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