For Same Price: CPO Model S or New Model 3?

igotzzoom said:

Looking over the going rate for pre-owned Model S cars, It got me to thinking what the market prices will be for current-year Model S units compared to new Model 3s in around 2018. My question for you guys is assuming they're around the same price, would you rather have a CPO Model S, or a new Model 3?

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Mostly, I would think, it depends on your needs. Some people want a smaller car. I had always driven little Toyotas and Hondas, but I sure like my big Tesla. I sure like the tons of room.

It sounds like you are comparing future costs. I would prefer to buy the CPO (or maybe get something on eBay for less) just so I could drive electric longer. I wouldn't want to wait that long for the model 3, though it will arguably be even better than the S in some ways. The S will still be the premium top of the line car. The 3 will be the little brother.

We have no idea how long the batteries will last or how the car will age. Sure, Tesla tries to make our cars obsolete on one hand by building a dual motor car, and then turns around and tries to keep it forever young with firmware updates, but so far, 72,000 miles and 2 3/4 years old, it's still brand new, and I ain't sellin'! I'd buy whatever I could afford as soon as I could afford it, I guess.

My plan is to sell my Model S and get a Model 3 when it comes out. The Model S is way bigger than I like. A smaller car should handle better.

I started another thread on the same topic a while back. In that thread most people suggested the 3 because they thought the S was too big, and that a new car was better.
I think I've made my decision though, and it's the opposite. I like big cars with lots of space, and I want the higher spec vehicle. (And even a 5 year old S would still be the youngest car I've ever bought by 10 years. ..)

This is another of those areas where I'm sure I read an EM comment about that. When Model 3 releases there will be similarly priced used Model S around.
Certainly for us the size was the issue for us, the S is a fantastic car, but just too big for our needs. Just like the difference between the BMW 7 & 3.
Still looking forward to going ICE free.....

I'll take the 3 for three main reasons. Definitely want the smaller size. I've driven the Model S a few times and it is just larger than I'd like, plus it will be a tight squeeze on my side of the garage. Second, I expect the 3 will have an improved battery chemistry. Third, it will incorporate improvements from Tesla's experience with the Model S and X. While I don't know exactly what those will be the 3rd generation Tesla should be even more reliable with fewer mechanical problems.

My signature line says my opinion. I have recently decided to go with a CPO Model S when I finally pull the trigger. It seems I can get a P85 with almost everything for the price of an unloaded S85 with pretty low miles on it. A reasonable trade off for my needs.

And maybe I'll trade it for a used Model 3 in 2020.... I like smaller cars too.

igotzzoom said:

Looking over the going rate for pre-owned Model S cars, It got me to thinking what the market prices will be for current-year Model S units compared to new Model 3s in around 2018. My question for you guys is assuming they're around the same price, would you rather have a CPO Model S, or a new Model 3?

Click to expand...

If I at that time can get a better equipped TMS for a lower price then a new TM3, witch is still in warranty and is not beaten to death, I will consider it. I don't mind the size, but for a daily driver a smaller car is more practical.

We went ahead and bought a Model S well knowing that it's too big for our needs. We are however forced to buy this year or run the risk of never being able to buy any Tesla (they are tax exempt right now).

Would we have waited for the Model 3? Maybe if our 200.000+ mile car had lived that long, but it is a relief to know that in a few weeks we need never worry about oil, gas, dealerships, workshops and the like any more.

Just plug and go.

I am truly amazed at the change in perspective our family has gone through after we clicked the order button. Filling up feels insane and to add injury to insult yesterday our fuel-pump broke and I had to buy a $100 replacement. For a stupid plastic pump.

igotzzoom said:

Looking over the going rate for pre-owned Model S cars, It got me to thinking what the market prices will be for current-year Model S units compared to new Model 3s in around 2018. My question for you guys is assuming they're around the same price, would you rather have a CPO Model S, or a new Model 3?

Click to expand...

If that were true, a CPO Model S. And I think except for people who *prefer* smaller cars (a large group), this will be true; most people who prefer larger cars will make that choice.

However, I don't think they'll be the same price. I think the *relatively small numbers* of used Model S available will keep the price of CPO Model S slightly above that of new model 3. (With the exception of pre-Autopilot cars, which are going to be selling at a discount -- or other similar "feature missing" phenomena.)

that is a good point, by the time the model 3 releases there will be a fleet of four and five year old Model S around that will be cheaper than a the 3.
Although I very much doubt many of them will be in the CPO program :wink:

neroden said:

If that were true, a CPO Model S. And I think except for people who *prefer* smaller cars (a large group), this will be true; most people who prefer larger cars will make that choice.

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And except for people who prefer new cars. A lot of people buy a new BMW 3 series than a used 5.

Then, there are the lease options ... much better for new cars.

My model S is a 2013 and is a fairly base model. Personally, I really love this car, but for my wife it's just too big and she'd prefer a smaller version. When the 3 is available, she's definitely getting one (unless they're god-awful ugly like some of the renderings). The new 3 will have so many bells and whistles standard that my S doesn't, and possibly (probably?) features that even the new S's don't have yet. Technology is always improving and typically getting cheaper, so the 3 could be a technological marvel when it's released.

But unless the jealousy of my wife's high-tech Model 3 gets too much, I'll keep my S just for the sheer comfort, and because it is a larger car. Besides, it already puts my Camry's to shame. I'm happy!

who wants to take a bet that the Model S will not get an update after the Model 3 releases?

A lot depends on the Model 3's

1. Actual MSRP
2. Actual range

and I still think the jury is out on the Falcon doors. I happen to believe that the least expensive M3 (before any credits) will be closer to $40K.

A MS CPO with a legitimate range of 175 to 250 miles (worse case in winter) will still be a a great choice. And consider most will be AWD and with the KinderSeats a 7 passenger mini-van like vehicle that can trash a Mustang at a stop light, that's a compelling option. But the MS is a LARGE vehicle that some find difficult to live with in real life, like ever shrinking parking spaces and door dings with the aluminum body is something folks in this price point really don't want to deal with.

But regardless of how this plays out it'll be a great time to be a Tesla owner/buyer.

I think if the Model 3 has too low range and low supercharging speed then I'd probably consider a Model S CPO. However, I sort of think the Model 3 will be a more refined product/less faulty than the S. So sort of difficult to say at this point.

Candleflame said:

...However, I sort of think the Model 3 will be a more refined product/less faulty than the S...

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Interesting that you say that. My concern with getting an early production Model 3 is that it will have the usual new model glitches and problems, similar to those that the S had and that I expect the X to have. Any all-new car seems likely to have unexpected issues that prototypes and testing miss. So, I hope that you are right and I am wrong!

Well I hope one of the chief engineers at TM will put some sense into Musk so he doesnt take the Model 3 too far. However, on the other hand most of the (serious) reliablity issues with the Model S seem to be related to the motor/generator, drivetrain or battery. Those should sort of be the same, especially if the Model 3 would use the Model S front motor as its main motor.

But then again, there is the similar model X too. I doubt the holdups were just related to falcon wing doors and wing mirrors. :/.