So... I thought this might be kind of fun. Plus I'll get to look back (This forum will still be searchable... right?) and see how right or wrong we were...
Energy PRODUCTION;
- Nuclear power will only exist in tightly regulated markets. ~1/3 of the current fleet will be shut down. Vogtle and Summer will be the last fission plants ever built.
- Wind will continue to expand but will be largely overshadowed (no pun intended) by solar; The primary benefit to wind will be to decrease storage requirements.
SOLAR;
- Module ~$0.20/w; Inverter ~$0.10/w; Racking ~$0.20/w. Labor ~$1/w residential; ~$0.30 utility.
- Average module efficiency ~25% with ~30% for premium modules.
- Daytime electricity costs will be NEGATIVE (fee for exporting) for >1hr/day for >10% of the US.
- Solar Installs will begin to level off at ~200GW/yr. >1TW of installed solar. Solar PV >30% of total generation.
Generation Breakdown...
Solar ~40%
Wind ~25%
Nuclear ~10%
Coal ~5%
Natural Gas + Hydro ~20%
Energy CONSUMPTION;
- Supercharger BAYS outnumber gas stations ~2:1.
- EV cheaper than ICE counterpart (~2025 parity).
- ~75% of car (not truck) sales are EVs
- Light Duty trucks & SUVS <25%. Mostly PHEVs.
- Most public chargers are free 10am - 2pm
- PHEV semi-trucks make their appearance (<5% of fleet)
- Toyota continues to say Hydrogen is the future... :wink:
Energy PRODUCTION;
- Nuclear power will only exist in tightly regulated markets. ~1/3 of the current fleet will be shut down. Vogtle and Summer will be the last fission plants ever built.
- Wind will continue to expand but will be largely overshadowed (no pun intended) by solar; The primary benefit to wind will be to decrease storage requirements.
SOLAR;
- Module ~$0.20/w; Inverter ~$0.10/w; Racking ~$0.20/w. Labor ~$1/w residential; ~$0.30 utility.
- Average module efficiency ~25% with ~30% for premium modules.
- Daytime electricity costs will be NEGATIVE (fee for exporting) for >1hr/day for >10% of the US.
- Solar Installs will begin to level off at ~200GW/yr. >1TW of installed solar. Solar PV >30% of total generation.
Generation Breakdown...
Solar ~40%
Wind ~25%
Nuclear ~10%
Coal ~5%
Natural Gas + Hydro ~20%
Energy CONSUMPTION;
- Supercharger BAYS outnumber gas stations ~2:1.
- EV cheaper than ICE counterpart (~2025 parity).
- ~75% of car (not truck) sales are EVs
- Light Duty trucks & SUVS <25%. Mostly PHEVs.
- Most public chargers are free 10am - 2pm
- PHEV semi-trucks make their appearance (<5% of fleet)
- Toyota continues to say Hydrogen is the future... :wink: