100D or 105D speculation

No2DinosaurFuel · May 13, 2015

Here is my speculation on what tesla will release next in terms of Model S. We all know the Model X is coming out July/August time frame with higher capacity battery.

Most here agree the Model X will come in 2 forms:

1) 85KWh version
2) ???KWh version. I think it will be 105KWh.

This relates to the Model S because most likely it will share the same battery form factor. This will also likely be the case with the Model 3 to keep battery production smooth, compatible, and easy. It also makes replacement and servicing easy.

That being said here is why:
The Model S 70D have 240 miles of EPA range.
The Model S 85D have 270 miles of EPA range.

Going from 70KWh to 85KWh we see a 30 miles range increase. Or 15KWh yield 30 additional miles at the higher KWh number.

Hence if we are going to see a 300 miles Model S, we will need another 30 miles. Given the non-linear trend, I say we are looking at either a 105KWh battery if we have higher energy dense Li-ion cells or 110KWh with the current cells tech. The current 85KWh battery currently occupies most of the current battery space. I would think the increase will come in higher energy dense cells. Factoring everything in, I would say with confident, the new Model S will be a 105D with new battery cells technology.

Now when this will be available is to be seen. I think because of the upcoming release of the Model X, I don't expect the 105D Model S to be coming out anytime soon. The gigafactory is not up and running yet.

So my prediction:

Model S 105D with 295 or 300 EPA miles with newer cells technology added when the gigafactory starts churring out cells probably later in the year ~Fall/Winter 2015 timeframe. The Model X will also be in 2 form, the 85D and 105D version and will be using up ALL the new cells if there will be a new cell batteries.

What do you guys think?

zer0cool · May 13, 2015

Unless batteries get lighter, 15 additional kwh will not result in 30 more miles due to the added weight.

wk057 · May 13, 2015

I feel like every couple of days I'm posting that we're not likely to see a larger battery pack any time soon (years).

brianman · May 13, 2015

No2DinosaurFuel said:
We all know the Model X is coming out July/August time frame with higher capacity battery.

Many expect this but nobody outside of Tesla (and NDA folks perhaps) knows this.

- - - Updated - - -

wk057 said:
I feel like every couple of days I'm posting that we're not likely to see a larger battery pack any time soon (years).

I agree with you w/r/t to chemistry. I'm not convinced yet that Tesla won't be "creative" with pack shape to allow them to fit more cells in the X top-end offering.

"But but battery swap..." - Until that's actually real, it's mostly an academic counterargument like saying solar doesn't make sense because the long-term value is zero after the sun dies.

No2DinosaurFuel · May 13, 2015

wk057 said:
I feel like every couple of days I'm posting that we're not likely to see a larger battery pack any time soon (years).

I would disagree... if you mean larger as in larger capacity and not in size. The current cells in the latest teslas are still the same capacity as the cells created by panasonic way back in 2012 when they first started offering it. Obviously they have tweeted the chemistry to accommodate higher charging and discharging rate. And other benefits like higher cycle counts, But no real improvements in energy density. With 3 years advancements, the energy density has to increase a bit like all other battery manufactures, i.e. LG Chem, Samsung, etc. Otherwise, the competitive lead Panasonic as over their competitors will mean nothing if they cannot get at least 10-15% capacity increase from their cells in 3 years. All the while, their competitors are getting closer and closer to their current energy density cells.

Moreover, with the X, there is only one way to keep the current range or get close to the current range as the Model S and that is increase capacity per cell. Or do whatever trick they can to get more battery in smaller/lighter packaging. In either case, they will effectively increased the energy density of the battery.

Remember I am not saying there will be a major break through in energy density with Li-ion batteries, but more of small incremental increases like Musk has said. I would venture to guess by now, Panasonic have their chemistry for mass manufacturing design ready to hand off to Tesla and its gigafactory. Maybe 10-15% increase in energy capacity for the same form factor if they are still using 18650 Cells. Otherwise, overall 10-15% energy density increase to offset the larger vehicles penalty of the Model X.

MorrisonHiker · May 13, 2015

No2DinosaurFuel said:
Model S 105D with 295 or 300 EPA miles with newer cells technology added when the gigafactory starts churring out cells probably later in the year ~Fall/Winter 2015 timeframe. The Model X will also be in 2 form, the 85D and 105D version and will be using up ALL the new cells if there will be a new cell batteries.

The gigafactory is ahead of schedule but even with talk of opening early, they are referring to 2016, not 2015. They still have a LOT of work to do before the first battery rolls off the line at the gigafactory.

MsElectric · May 13, 2015

The Model X with an 85 KWh battery will likely yield just about 240 miles of range based on added weight and higher drag. I see no way Tesla will sell a $100K+ upper trim level Model X that barely delivers 240 miles of range. I would be really surprised if the Model X is released with a max battery of only 85KWh. People who buy the Model X are more likely going to be families that travel and they will likely need at least about a 300 mile range.

No2DinosaurFuel · May 13, 2015

If the Model X will get 300+ miles EPA, then we are looking at probably 120+KWh pack IMO. However, I think that will be unlikely given the current energy density. But then again, maybe the X will allow The stacking of 2 smaller model S packs. But then cost will be high. I am not saying it isn't possible, I just don't expect it.

amzng_ev · May 13, 2015

The powerwall has 7KWH and 10KWH options. I've also heard that they are 1/10 of a Model S battery, so I predict there will be an exclusively AWD 100KWH battery coincided with the release of the Model X.

stopcrazypp · May 13, 2015

No2DinosaurFuel said:
With 3 years advancements, the energy density has to increase a bit like all other battery manufactures, i.e. LG Chem, Samsung, etc. Otherwise, the competitive lead Panasonic as over their competitors will mean nothing if they cannot get at least 10-15% capacity increase from their cells in 3 years. All the while, their competitors are getting closer and closer to their current energy density cells.

The thing is Panasonic built a big lead early on, but battery development comes in steps (not actually gradual) so competitors are eroding on that lead. Panasonic has a long overdue 4000mAh chemistry with silicon anode (which actually is heavier, but takes up less space) that was supposed to come out in 2013. Tesla is likely using the 3400mAh which came out in 2012 (Tesla announced plans to use 3.1Ah in 2010, but the cell count of the production pack supports 3400mAh as the capacity). And Panasonic has only released a 3600mAh version in 2014 (which would get Tesla to 90kWh).
http://news.panasonic.com/press/news/official.data/data.dir/en091225-3/en091225-3.html

JohnSnowNW · May 13, 2015

I'm no expert, so I can't comment on how likely a larger battery pack would be. However, I could really make use of the larger one in the X.

I guess if they add a few more supercharger stations on our route through Iowa it wouldn't be such an issue...but I really need a Model X with around 240 (loaded vehicle) miles.

Lerxt · May 13, 2015

I really can't see a larger battery for the Model S or X for a fair while. The extra cost would make the cars prohibitively expensive.

No2DinosaurFuel · May 13, 2015

Lerxt said:
I really can't see a larger battery for the Model S or X for a fair while. The extra cost would make the cars prohibitively expensive.

I don't think the cost of the batteries are prohibitively expensive. In fact, I think the cost of batteries have been going downs for years. I wager back in 2012, tesla was make very little on each car because of the battery cost. Now they have a substantial margins built in. The battery cost will only decrease as time goes on. I can't really speculate on battery cost for tesla, but if they keep the model S's price high as they are doing now, it just getting better for them until some other companies are offering something better for less. Point is I don't see tesla passing the battery cost saving on to its consumer anytime soon. When the Model 3 comes out, then they will have no choice but to pass it on.

scott jones · May 14, 2015

wk057 said:
I feel like every couple of days I'm posting that we're not likely to see a larger battery pack any time soon (years).

Years? With respect, I 100% disagree. I've said since the X was announced, it would NEED a 300 mile battery as SUV drivers are more likely to want to take longer trips. And that 100+kw battery would be available to the S when the X comes out, if not BEFORE.

My reasoning, there's NO WAY, their top of the line "sports car" (the S) would have less range than their SUV. There's also no logical reason not to if they share the same skateboard.
Other reasons I have stated in the past... The S's motors are under-powered by the current 85kw. The cars can rip to 60mph, but can't come close to powering the 691 hp of the P.
Why make a P, if you can't use the motors even close to their potential.

So:
S will have bigger battery, for distance, continual speed, and to interest more people who are worried about range anxiety, and I believe 300 miles is key.
Scott

blackscraper · May 14, 2015

I will put it straight, I backed out an order of S85D since 70D had been on the shelf. I won't place an order until some bigger pack is an option. TACC and dual motor are nice-to-have features, but if purchasing the car pushes to my financial limitation, I will definitely opt for a bigger pack. In short, I won't buy a $100K car that will lengthen a 2.5-hour trip to 3-hour. As to the price, I don't see it being prohibitively high. 100KWH industrial backup power pack is sold for $25K, why are you expecting an additional 25KWH will let the price go through the roof? At least I am not expecting it to be higher than TACC and dual motor combined.

wk057 · May 14, 2015

$100 says the Model X has a max 85kWh pack at launch.

FlasherZ · May 14, 2015

How about $100 to charity? I'll take that bet.

I think it depends on how much the Model X's form costs in terms of mileage vs. Model S. I would hate to see the range reduced on the X, as there are certain scenarios that I enjoy with that range today - for example, skipping every other supercharger on a road trip saves us some time.

scott jones · May 14, 2015

wk057 said:
$100 says the Model X has a max 85kWh pack at launch.

I'll take that bet as well. The money going to the winners charity.

MartinAustin · May 14, 2015

It's always great to be right when you were in the minority, and I wish you good luck with that, but respectfully, Occam's Razor says the Model X Design Studio page will be where the reveal of the new battery happens.

We all know the Model X will weigh more than the Model S, and have more aerodynamic drag.

There is no way they will release a more expensive vehicle whose range is below the 270 miles EPA / 310 miles NEDC of the Model S 85D. The Model X will be their new flagship vehicle with latest generation autopilot hardware, version 7.0 software as standard, and largest battery. The Model X range will either be the same as the Model S, or further.

IMO the only question that's worth a debate on an enthusiasts' forum is the size of the new battery. 90? 95? 100? 105? or 110?

Merrill · May 14, 2015

MartinAustin said:
It's always great to be right when you were in the minority, and I wish you good luck with that, but respectfully, Occam's Razor says the Model X Design Studio page will be where the reveal of the new battery happens.

We all know the Model X will weigh more than the Model S, and have more aerodynamic drag.

There is no way they will release a more expensive vehicle whose range is below the 270 miles EPA / 310 miles NEDC of the Model S 85D. The Model X will be their new flagship vehicle with latest generation autopilot hardware, version 7.0 software as standard, and largest battery. The Model X range will either be the same as the Model S, or further.

IMO the only question that's worth a debate on an enthusiasts' forum is the size of the new battery. 90? 95? 100? 105? or 110?

I agree, I do not see the Model X with only one battery size. We know there will be no 60 so we will have an 85 and something higher.

100D or 105D speculation

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