Model 3 financials: Ownership

Based on informal conversations with a friend that owns a Model S, I'd count on fuel costs probably easily being 1/3 or less than an equivalent ICE car. But I'll defer to the actual owners on this forum that have had real-world, objective experience.

I bought my Smart Electric Drive for reasons independent of cost savings, though the cost savings are considerable compared to the purchase of a similar sized gas car.

I've blogged my math on comparing a small EV (Smart ED) to a small gas car (Nissan Micra)
Smart Electric Drive: Micra shmicra

The blog has the numbers, but briefly, driving an EV is 4x cheaper than gas (even with low gas prices) here in Ontario.

If you spend $400 on gas, you'll spend $100 on electricity (in addition to your current usage), presuming you recharge overnight or weekends.
Rates are lowest off peak in Ontario:
Ontario Time-of-Use Electricity Rates

Obviously, if you live near a supercharger, you could pick up some free electrons there too. Home charging is so easy and convenient, I doubt many would actually go out of their way to seek out supercharger for non-road trips.

It all depends on the cost of electricity and how much you drive.
I drive a Leaf, averaging between 225-250 watts per mile.
Tracking the extra electricity, miles travelled, cost per kWh etc etc - Annual "fuel" cost has been about $350.

Not to mention the lack of oil service and brake service...

tfna said:

I live in Ontario Canada, and wanted to walk through the financials of owning a model 3. No debt on my books except a mortgage $190k and am single. $75k gross a year. Car is paid off.

I spend $400 - $500 per month on gas.

Cdn model 3: $40 000 Cdn - $7 500 rebate = $32 500 / 500 = 65 months. I plan to put cash down to offset the taxes and $10k in options. Is there a fundamental cost savings in fuel by owning the model 3? I want to know what the math looks like for most of you. I am fine if the credit is not applicable, as well. But, I haven't done the rigorous calculation in terms of energy costs. Any help?

Click to expand...

You don't say what kind of car you drive now and mileage. Makes a big difference in determining you savings if you're driving a car that gets 20mpg vs 40+
With careful driving I can get close to 50 mpg with my Prius so my savings when I buy the Model 3 will be less than most. And as other's have stated what are you paying for electricity?
And welcome to the forum!!

tfna said:

I live in Ontario Canada, and wanted to walk through the financials of owning a model 3. No debt on my books except a mortgage $190k and am single. $75k gross a year. Car is paid off.

I spend $400 - $500 per month on gas.

Cdn model 3: $40 000 Cdn - $7 500 rebate = $32 500 / 500 = 65 months. I plan to put cash down to offset the taxes and $10k in options. Is there a fundamental cost savings in fuel by owning the model 3? I want to know what the math looks like for most of you. I am fine if the credit is not applicable, as well. But, I haven't done the rigorous calculation in terms of energy costs. Any help?

Click to expand...

First of all, the $7500 is a United States Government Federal Income Tax Credit. Unless you're somehow paying income tax to the IRS, you can't possibly qualify for it. For model 3 financials, the point is probably moot anyway, because at the moment that credit is limited to the first 200,000 vehicles produced by the manufacturer plus a phase out period. It'll likely be in the phase out or gone before the first Model 3 deliveries anyway unless Congress changes things.

There is a fundamental savings in fuel - from what I understand of conditions north of the border the savings are even more substantial where you are. You didn't give us enough information to figure out your savings however. Assume for the moment that the Model 3 has the same efficiency as a current S70D (I expect it to be somewhat more efficient than that, though likely not much.) That means that for every 100 miles/160 km you drive, you need 33 kWh of electricity from the wall.

If you figure out how many km you're driving every month to incur that $400-500 in gas, and look at the cost per kWh on your "hydro" bill, converting them using the 33 kWh/160 km number should give you a pretty good estimate for what your new energy cost will be. At US national average rates, it's 1/3-1/4 of the cost of gas. With all your extra gas taxes and your low electric prices, I wouldn't be surprised if it came out to be more like 1/10 for you.
Walter

Saghost said:

First of all, the $7500 is a United States Government Federal Income Tax Credit. Unless you're somehow paying income tax to the IRS, you can't possibly qualify for it. For model 3 financials, the point is probably moot anyway, because at the moment that credit is limited to the first 200,000 vehicles produced by the manufacturer plus a phase out period. It'll likely be in the phase out or gone before the first Model 3 deliveries anyway unless Congress changes things.

Click to expand...

Not sure if this is what OP was thinking, but there's an $8500 rebate after 13% sales tax in Ontario, which works out to about $7500 before tax.

tfna said:

I live in Ontario Canada, and wanted to walk through the financials of owning a model 3. No debt on my books except a mortgage $190k and am single. $75k gross a year. Car is paid off.

I spend $400 - $500 per month on gas.

Cdn model 3: $40 000 Cdn - $7 500 rebate = $32 500 / 500 = 65 months. I plan to put cash down to offset the taxes and $10k in options. Is there a fundamental cost savings in fuel by owning the model 3? I want to know what the math looks like for most of you. I am fine if the credit is not applicable, as well. But, I haven't done the rigorous calculation in terms of energy costs. Any help?

Click to expand...

There's quite a few things you need to consider:

MPG Of your current car
Sell price of your car in 2017
Cost of electricity in your area
Supercharger availability
Current Maintenance costs (you can practically say 'goodbye' to maintenance, especially if you're driving an ICE. Include SMOG, etc. in this)
Cost of registration renewal
Government Incentives

I've recently obsessed over cost-savings, so I've kinda thought of it in a formula. Try this, and plug in your own situation's numbers:

Cost of ownership for Tesla Model 3 for 5 years
Out of your pocket= $40,000 initial price + $5,200 taxes + $315ish interest (assuming your credit is great, and based on your income I'm guessing it is) + any extra registration you'll have to pay yearly, let's assume it's an extra $100 a year for 5 years
$46,015 - 7,500 rebate = $38,515 actual out of pocket..

How much you save in gas= ($450gas*65months) - [($450gas*65months) / (100/28)] efficiency (Assuming your MPG is 28, and assuming the Model 3 is rated at 100MPGe)
$29,250 - $8193 = $21,057 (obviously if you drive more, this will be even higher.)

How much you save in maintenance= I'm not sure what car you drive now, so for this example's sake, I'll say you spend $200 a year in maintenance currently, and will spend $100 a year in maintenance for the model 3
(200*5years) - (100*5years) = 500 saved in maintenance (probably higher... since you'll have a warranty and ICE's can be very unpredictable. I'm trying to remain conservative, hence the arbitrary numbers.)

$38,515 OOP - $21057 Gas Savings - 500maintenance - The sell price of your current car in 2017

I'd say, you're looking at roughly $16,958 (minus the sell price of your current car) over the course of 5 years. The gas savings for the long run (if you plan to own the car longer than 5 years) would make this deal even sweeter (the model 3 would practically pay for itself).


I hope that makes sense. Obviously, if your numbers are different or if you think your situation overall might be different, you'll want to plug in different numbers here (or, if you help provide the numbers, I can edit this post to be more specific to your situation ). If I were you OP, (especially with how much you drive) I would definitely buy the Model 3.