ISIL (ISIS); child of climate change

nwdiver · May 9, 2015

One of the common tactics I see employed by people to attempting the justify their continued addiction to fossil fuels is the myth that the effects of climate change are far off and will either be minimal or borne by a future generation better equipped to cope.

The civil strife in Syria and other parts of that region is a terrific narrative to frame CURRENT effects of climate change.

It's undeniable that ISIL was borne of the civil war in Syria. Equally undeniable is the role that drought and famine coupled with the poor response by the Assad regime played in triggering the revolt. This drought was at the very least exacerbated by our fossil fuel addiction. There's a reason the DOD calls climate change a threat to national security.

The key takeaway here is the fact that the most devastating effects our generation is likely to see won't be warmer temperatures or rising sea levels... it's the effect of changing weather patterns causing famine, drought and water scarcity (100s of Millions depend on glacial melt from glaciers that will be gone by 2100). The middle east has obviously always had problems but we're throwing fuel on that fire.

the dude · May 9, 2015

falling oil and gas production also played a part and the rising population

the protests in Egypt have similar roots

the war in Yemen is also about rapid population growth, drought and water scarcity mixed with far too much khat

its only going to get worse

nwdiver · Nov 14, 2015

If a smoker dies of lung cancer was it the cigarettes or the cancer that killed them?

How much blame can be pointed to the climate chaos that spawned ISIS?

please, please.... let's work to solve our fossil fuel addiction; this nonsense is out of control.

flankspeed8 · Nov 14, 2015

I find it very distasteful to in any way compare or conflate the barbarism of ISIS and consequently the Russian plane bombing, the Lebanon bombings, the Paris Massacres, etc. with anything to do with climate change. Radical Islamic fundamentalism is not the result of changing weather, especially in naturally dry and drought prone regions.

edit: just realized that this thread was started back in May. I still stand by my statement. ISIS/ISIL are terrorists and barbarians, no need to minimize or make excuses even if it contributes to your political/social view. Besides, I thought it was Bush's fault.

nwdiver · Nov 14, 2015

flankspeed8 said:
I find it very distasteful to in any way compare or conflate the barbarism of ISIS and consequently the Russian plane bombing, the Lebanon bombings, the Paris Massacres, etc. with anything to do with climate change. Radical Islamic fundamentalism is not the result of changing weather, especially in naturally dry and drought prone regions.

When you're fighting a fire you don't spray water on the flames... you hit the base. You need to understand the fire triangle. Fuel, Oxygen and Heat. Eliminate one and the fire goes out.

The kind of violent extremism we're witnessing doesn't exist in a vacuum... there's a similar but more complex support structure to organizations like Al Qaeda and ISIS. They rely on destabilized regions like in Afghanistan and Syria, a disillusioned or desperate population and some brand of fundamentalist belief. Eliminate one and the threat greatly diminishes; AGW induced droughts don't have much to do with the third but it's certainly feeding the first two.

There's not much we can do about fundamentalist belief but we can stop feeding the first two components of the 'barbarism triangle'. The drought in Syria wasn't the only component but it was the final piece that allowed the creation of ISIS.

There are dozens of other regions simmering with zealots and despair... climate change is very likely to be the stressor that tips them over the edge...

'The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world.These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty,environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions – conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence. ' - US Pentagon 2014 quadrennial defense review

James Anders · Nov 14, 2015

Modern radical Islamic fundamentalism started a very long time ago. 18th and 19th century.

nwdiver · Nov 14, 2015

James Anders said:
Modern radical Islamic fundamentalism started a very long time ago. 18th and 19th century.

No one is suggesting that only people that smoke get lung cancer... but smoking increases the risk;

No one is suggesting that only Baseball players using steroids hit home runs... but steroids increase the number of home runs hit;

No one is suggesting that AGW causes all acts of terrorism... but AGW will increase 'terrorist activity and other forms of violence.'

In the words of the US DOD... AGW is a 'threat multiplier'...

ISIS is a special case since it's roots can be traced directly back to an AGW driven event. The islamic extremism that fuels ISIS has existed for centuries but the spark that ignited it in Syria and spawned ISIS was likely AGW.

This was mentioned in the Democratic Debate in relation to AGW by Sanders ~10:20...

James Anders · Nov 15, 2015

I think for most "everyday" people (not avid believers) the attempt to link the rise of ISIS in any causative way, even small, to global warming as being purely political extremism.

It is also seen as an attempt to deflect the blame and responsibility from our leaders who actually did enable ISIS through their policies and inaction.

Same was true a few years ago with the attempt to link global warming and HIV/AIDS.

ecarfan · Nov 15, 2015

See Thomas Friedman, "Without Water, Revolution" , quote: "This Syrian disaster is like a superstorm. It’s what happens when an extreme weather event, the worst drought in Syria’s modern history, combines with a fast-growing population and a repressive and corrupt regime and unleashes extreme sectarian and religious passions, fueled by money from rival outside powers — Iran and Hezbollah on one side, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar on the other".
Yes, ISIL's tactics are barbarous. But ISIL is simply exploiting two countries in collapse; Syria, for the reasons described above, and Iraq, which was destabilized and fractured by the American invasion. Just calling ISIL "terrorists" does not aid in understanding what is going on.

nwdiver said:
It's undeniable that ISIL was borne of the civil war in Syria. Equally undeniable is the role that drought and famine coupled with the poor response by the Assad regime played in triggering the revolt. This drought was at the very least exacerbated by our fossil fuel addiction. There's a reason the DOD calls climate change a threat to national security.

The key takeaway here is the fact that the most devastating effects our generation is likely to see won't be warmer temperatures or rising sea levels... it's the effect of changing weather patterns causing famine, drought and water scarcity (100s of Millions depend on glacial melt from glaciers that will be gone by 2100). The middle east has obviously always had problems but we're throwing fuel on that fire.

beeeerock · Nov 15, 2015

ecarfan said:
See Thomas Friedman, "Without Water, Revolution" , quote: "This Syrian disaster is like a superstorm. It’s what happens when an extreme weather event, the worst drought in Syria’s modern history, combines with a fast-growing population and a repressive and corrupt regime and unleashes extreme sectarian and religious passions, fueled by money from rival outside powers — Iran and Hezbollah on one side, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar on the other".
Yes, ISIL's tactics are barbarous. But ISIL is simply exploiting two countries in collapse; Syria, for the reasons described above, and Iraq, which was destabilized and fractured by the American invasion. Just calling ISIL "terrorists" does not aid in understanding what is going on.

I think the key is in the 'superstorm' analogy. Such a storm occurs when multiple extremes coincide. To say that the effects of climate changed had zero contribution value in what is going on would be, IMHO, naive. I'm not saying it's the cause or even a large cause and I don't think nwdiver is suggesting it is either. But it didn't help. The straw that breaks the camel's back isn't heavy in itself - in fact, it often weighs very little. And it doesn't even have to be the last straw loaded onto the camel - it only needs to represent the marginal weight addition.

And in the future, I think we'll see more geo-political events that can be more directly attributed to climate change. People who lose the ability to eke out even a marginal existence due to climate change will not simply accept their lot and roll into their graves.

omgwtfbyobbq · Nov 15, 2015

flankspeed8 said:
I find it very distasteful to in any way compare or conflate the barbarism of ISIS and consequently the Russian plane bombing, the Lebanon bombings, the Paris Massacres, etc. with anything to do with climate change. Radical Islamic fundamentalism is not the result of changing weather, especially in naturally dry and drought prone regions.

edit: just realized that this thread was started back in May. I still stand by my statement. ISIS/ISIL are terrorists and barbarians, no need to minimize or make excuses even if it contributes to your political/social view. Besides, I thought it was Bush's fault.

Insofar as beating the crap out of Iraq and to a lesser degree Afghanistan destabilized the region, sure, the Bush administration is culpable. Oligarchies (oil and otherwise) and the associated economic inequality also help set the stage, and extreme drought was likely the last straw in Syria.

IRIN Middle East | SYRIA: Drought pushing millions into poverty | Syria | Early Warning | Economy | Food Security

I also don't think it's helpful to characterize this as Islamic extremism, the majority of terrorist attacks are associated with nationalism/separatism, and the extreme conditions people have to live in set the stage for those attacks.

Our terrorism double standard: After Paris, lets stop blaming Muslims and take a hard look at ourselves - Salon.com

nwdiver · Nov 18, 2015

James Anders said:
I think for most "everyday" people (not avid believers) the attempt to link the rise of ISIS in any causative way, even small, to global warming as being purely political extremism.

'A national security policy that focuses only on AK-47-wielding terrorists and does not consider threats that are harder to quantify will be short-sighted and ultimately ineffective'

Lloyd · Nov 18, 2015

ISIL refers to the land bridge between Egypt and Israel with Syria! In order for Moslems to be whole, Israel is in the way of them being ONE. Thus moslems’ deep belief is is to vanquish the Israelis roadblock to what they believe to be rightfully theirs.

ISIS refers specifically to an Islamic caliphate whereas, isil refers to the Moslem caliphate sans Israel! When anyone uses isil instead of isis, he/she is basically promoting the middle east sans Israel! Most folks DO NOT understand the subtle but emphatic difference.

abasile · Nov 18, 2015

Lloyd said:
When anyone uses isil instead of isis, he/she is basically promoting the middle east sans Israel!

I see what you are saying, but I don't think anyone here desires to convey any legitimacy to this terrorist power. If Daesch had their way, the elimination of Israel would only be the beginning. Everyone the world over would be forced to convert or die. So I wouldn't get too hung up on ISIL vs. ISIS vs. IS vs Daesch. We need to go after these thugs and also address "threat multipliers" such as climate change.

dhrivnak · Nov 18, 2015

As with most tragedies there is not a simple and clean answer. While I do not believe ISIS is a child of climate change I do believe a drought exacerbated by global warming helped fuel their rise.

I agree we need to do something but after 12 years of effort, about $1 trillion funding in the second Gulf war not to mention the thousands killed and the many more maimed I am not sure more attacking and bombing is the answer. I for one have gone on a serious oil diet. If everyone joined in the price of oil would truly crash and remove the primary means of support for ISIS. It may not be the total answer but it can't hurt.

beeeerock · Nov 19, 2015

dhrivnak said:
I agree we need to do something but after 12 years of effort, about $1 trillion funding in the second Gulf war not to mention the thousands killed and the many more maimed I am not sure more attacking and bombing is the answer.

Imagine how much solar/wind/hydro and even nuclear could have been built for a trillion bucks...

ggr · Nov 19, 2015

dhrivnak said:
As with most tragedies there is not a simple and clean answer. While I do not believe ISIS is a child of climate change I do believe a drought exacerbated by global warming helped fuel their rise.

I agree we need to do something but after 12 years of effort, about $1 trillion funding in the second Gulf war not to mention the thousands killed and the many more maimed I am not sure more attacking and bombing is the answer. I for one have gone on a serious oil diet. If everyone joined in the price of oil would truly crash and remove the primary means of support for ISIS. It may not be the total answer but it can't hurt.

When you say "thousands" you presumably mean Americans. Hundreds of thousands died in Iraq alone as a result of the 2003 war. It doesn't do to forget them, they're people too.

dhrivnak · Nov 21, 2015

ggr said:
When you say "thousands" you presumably mean Americans. Hundreds of thousands died in Iraq alone as a result of the 2003 war. It doesn't do to forget them, they're people too.

I FULLY agree. I did not have the numbers close at hand but you are right it looks like over 500,000 died in the conflict and over 1,000,000 people displaced or have become refugees. We created a huge mess far worse than they mess they had.

nwdiver · Dec 9, 2015

Pretty good synopsis...

ISIL (ISIS); child of climate change

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