If you were willing to put down $10,000 for a high risk/reward TSLA play...

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

I could be any amount of money, but if you were going to take $10,000 and make a high risk/reward investment heading into earnings, what would it be? No real back end timetable, except for maybe say it's less than 2 years. But could be as short as one day or a few days as we are heading into earnings, and any money made in the next few days could also be part of the bet to roll that into a second play. Specifics would be great, general statements OK too. This is only a partly hypothetical situation. Thanks for your ideas.

Jonathan Hewitt · May 3, 2015

Cattledog said:
I could be any amount of money, but if you were going to take $10,000 and make a high risk/reward investment heading into earnings, what would it be? No real back end timetable, except for maybe say it's less than 2 years. But could be as short as one day or a few days as we are heading into earnings, and any money made in the next few days could also be part of the bet to roll that into a second play. Specifics would be great, general statements OK too. This is only a partly hypothetical situation. Thanks for your ideas.

Margin account or no margin?

mmccord · May 3, 2015

I'm currently holding about 20k of June 230/240/250/260 calls. Does that count?

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

Jonathan Hewitt said:
Margin account or no margin?

No margin - cash sitting there waiting to be put to use.

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mmccord said:
I'm currently holding about 20k of June 230/240/250/260 calls. Does that count?

Holding them is nice, would you buy them at today's prices? And if so how would you split your 10K?

BTW, I have some too at the moment.

eloder · May 3, 2015

I have 100% of my investments save my 401k in Tesla stock right now, and the amount is over 10k. Does that count as risky?

(I know someone will probably be concerned--It's pretty much all throw-away money. I'm kind of young and don't really spend much money on anything, and I don't feel like dumping that money to pay my mortgage off in a couple years versus 5 years).

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

eloder said:
I have 100% of my investments save my 401k in Tesla stock right now, and the amount is over 10k. Does that count as risky?

(I know someone will probably be concerned--It's pretty much all throw-away money. I'm kind of young and don't really spend much money on anything, and I don't feel like dumping that money to pay my mortgage off in a couple years versus 5 years).

All good, but if someone handed you $10K tonight and made you invest it in TSLA, what would you do? Buy more stock? Options? Hold until after earnings?

anticitizen13.7 · May 3, 2015

Cattledog said:
All good, but if someone handed you $10K tonight and made you invest it in TSLA, what would you do? Buy more stock? Options? Hold until after earnings?

I'd add some of my own cash, buy 50 shares of TSLA, and call it a day.

I know I know, not very exciting, but I am a pretty cold and careful investor.

mmccord · May 3, 2015

Cattledog said:
Holding them is nice, would you buy them at today's prices? And if so how would you split your 10K?

BTW, I have some too at the moment.

I picked them up over the last week, so I'm about even on them right now. I'm split pretty even dollar wise between the four. I also have a handful of May 15 calls. Don't think I'll hold everything into earnings, but will see what the next two days hold before I make a decision on that.

P.S. I made about 5k last week day trading TSLA. Some fun intraday movement.

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
I'd add some of my own cash, buy 50 shares of TSLA, and call it a day.

I know I know, not very exciting, but I am a pretty cold and careful investor.

That's OK, you go the thing rolling by making a specific suggestion. Hard to go wrong with shares at this point if your time horizon is moderate to long.

mmccord · May 3, 2015

Btw, my biggest concern is elon announcing a secondary offering and diluting our shares. I'm not concerned about demand, just about cash on hand.

Krugerrand · May 3, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
I'd add some of my own cash, buy 50 shares of TSLA, and call it a day.

I know I know, not very exciting, but I am a pretty cold and careful investor.

Yep, that's what I'd do too.

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

mmccord said:
Btw, my biggest concern is elon announcing a secondary offering and diluting our shares. I'm not concerned about demand, just about cash on hand.

Seems (to me, and a few others) that a secondary now would be a bullish attitude. Yes it dilutes shares, but increases value to as that money is being used to grow the business. I'd be OK with it. If you thought they'd announce that soon, how would you invest?

mmccord · May 3, 2015

Puts. Market would react negatively for sure. Company is bleeding cash. Last stop before bankruptcy. Etc etc

Not saying it's true, but that's what would the news articles would read.

kenliles · May 3, 2015

I think I would buy stock. The base assumption is no other augmenting TSLA positions apply, and the reasons are a blend of Tesla and Market related as follows:
1) TSLA is in a general state of cyclical recovery with a number of positive catalyst coming. However those catalysts are time spread over the next 24 months
2) It has already suffered rotational out flux of beta stocks, but there may be more to come
3) Given the context of high growth potential aagainst valuation, it's at a medium level here IMO
4) And this may be the most important. The market condition today is a bit bloated, poised before a historic period of imminent interest rate increases playing against a still positive yield curve. All in says the market is at risk of correction (regardless of TSLA value) and historically these corrections adhere to beta stocks in a particularly disproportionate way- increasing the risk of ANY Option calls including LEAPS

Even if it's money you are trading and not investing (but in both cases), my take is the current opportunity of higher TSLA is nearly equaled by risk of lower market. Therefore a trade of TSLA today should be unleveraged stock

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

Krugerrand said:
Yep, that's what I'd do too.

That's certainly a sensible play. Like many here, I own shares from 2012/2013 and have held all of them. A few months ago I started an options account and have $10K from gains I'm willing to put in play for a multi-bagger. I could buy more shares, but I'm willing to accept greater risk for a greater return. Hence the not very disguised question.

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kenliles said:
I think I would buy stock. The base assumption is no other augmenting TSLA positions apply, and the reasons are a blend of Tesla and Market related as follows:
1) TSLA is in a general state of cyclical recovery with a number of positive catalyst coming. However those catalysts are time spread over the next 24 months
2) It has already suffered rotational out flux of beta stocks, but there may be more to come
3) Given the context of high growth potential aagainst valuation, it's at a medium level here IMO
4) And this may be the most important. The market condition today is a bit bloated, poised before a historic period of imminent interest rate increases playing against a still positive yield curve. All in says the market is at risk of correction (regardless of TSLA value) and historically these corrections adhere to beta stocks in a particularly disproportionate way- increasing the risk of ANY Option calls including LEAPS

Even if it's money you are trading and not investing (but in both cases), my take is the current opportunity of higher TSLA is nearly equaled by risk of lower market. Therefore a trade of TSLA today should be unleveraged stock

Thanks Ken, well reasoned.

anticitizen13.7 · May 3, 2015

mmccord said:
Btw, my biggest concern is elon announcing a secondary offering and diluting our shares. I'm not concerned about demand, just about cash on hand.

I think it was Curt Renz who pointed out in another thread that another round of share offerings wasn't a big concern for dilution because even though Tesla would be creating new shares, the company would be getting money in return.

In other words, the pie gets divided up more ways, BUT the pie correspondingly grows larger too. Tesla had an offering I think about 2 years ago, and the capital raised has been put to good use and helped the company grow more quickly.

mmccord · May 3, 2015

anticitizen13.7 said:
I think it was Curt Renz who pointed out in another thread that another round of share offerings wasn't a big concern for dilution because even though Tesla would be creating new shares, the company would be getting money in return.

In other words, the pie gets divided up more ways, BUT the pie correspondingly grows larger too. Tesla had an offering I think about 2 years ago, and the capital raised has been put to good use and helped the company grow more quickly.

I'm not concerned with reality, I'm concerned with market/media's 'reality'.

ke6jph · May 3, 2015

I would buy more to put me over the 2000 share goal I have.....:love:

Larken · May 3, 2015

ke6jph said:
I would buy more to put me over the 2000 share goal I have.....:love:

Just wait for a split and you're set :wink:

Cattledog · May 3, 2015

Larken said:
Just wait for a split and you're set :wink:

7:1 like AAPL?

If you were willing to put down $10,000 for a high risk/reward TSLA play...

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