Reservation deposits

EV2BFREE said:

I am curious as to the amount of deposits in USD for the Model S/X and what data is available. Some have said that Tesla will need to raise cash for the tooling of the Model X line and for the gigafactory. Once the Model 3 is unveiled, Tesla will start taking deposits like for the Model S/X. Could raising money through the deposits for the Model 3 be substantial enough to provide capital until the Model 3 actually launches?

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I think we're a little past that by now.

EV2BFREE said:

Are we? "We are going to spend staggering amounts of money on Capex" from the most recent CC(Q4)

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If they still need to raise cash for Model X tooling, then they've got some 'splainin to do regarding the Model X timeline. That would push first cars out to 2016.

Making 100 Model X on the line or 10,000 will have a similar cash outlay up front. (Not to mention that as the first Model X are sold, that's revenue coming in.) The factory was already re-laid out to handle both X and S (last June or July, iirc). Dies for body panels should be close to finished.

My only issue with the post was the assertion that cash needed to be raised for Model X tooling. I'm sure they still have massive expenditures yet to come, just IF they still have massive cash outlays to get the Model X line up and running, then they need to publicly adjust the delivery timeline to sometime in 2016. Can't be both 'first deliveries in Q3' and 'need to raise cash to produce the Model X'. The timeline doesn't work.

'Ramping up production' is more a 'go slow at first, make sure you have the problems out, increase efficiency on the line, make sure everyone is trained, work out kinks with suppliers' and stuff like that. And the assumption is the ramp will go more quickly than the Model S, because the learning curve will be shortened, a lot of suppliers should be the same, etc.

I don't expect Tesla to raise more money until they want a 2nd giga factory at the earliest, they are a profitable company.

From the 2014 Q4 Earnings call. Elon was asked about the need for raising money to fund 'crazy' growth, and here was his reply:

We don’t have any plans for raising money right now. And I think we can get to that sort of crazy level that I described earlier with really minimal dilution. It’s really going to be very much -- overwhelming amount of that would come from operating cash flow. So yes, I feel generally pretty good about getting to that level with minor to moderate dilution. The only reason we’d raise money is -- and I’m not saying we really don’t have any plans to raise money, but the only reason I could mention we would do it is just to have a bigger cash cushion that will be in the -- in case there’s a big downturn in the economy or something like that.