Realistically, how much is my Model S worth today?

gnychis · Apr 16, 2015

I tried to find an aggregate thread where other people were asking this question, but I couldn't find one. So I thought I'd start a new thread and maybe other owners can use this thread to get advice/feedback on their current value of their Model S.

I am hoping for some feedback (maybe from those we recently sold their MS), on what my Model S is worth today. Just looking for honest feedback.

Model S 85kWh
Miles: 16,000
Purchased: Jan 31, 2014 (before autopilot)
Cost: $92,000 (before tax)
Options: Dual Chargers, Smart Air, Tech Package, Pano Roof, Fog Lights, 19" wheels
Additions: Full Xpel on front fenders and rear bumper ($2500), Opticoat under Xpel and over entire car ($1000)
Condition: no accidents, body in flawless condition, 1 curbed wheel, always garaged.

Thanks much for any feedback.

roblab · Apr 16, 2015

gnychis said:
I tried to find an aggregate thread where other people were asking this question, but I couldn't find one. So I thought I'd start a new thread and maybe other owners can use this thread to get advice/feedback on their current value of their Model S.

I am hoping for some feedback (maybe from those we recently sold their MS), on what my Model S is worth today. Just looking for honest feedback.

Model S 85kWh

Purchased: Jan 31, 2014 (before autopilot)

Cost: $92,000 (before tax)

Options: Dual Chargers, Smart Air, Tech Package, Pano Roof, Fog Lights, 19" wheels

Additions: Full Xpel on front fenders and rear bumper ($2500), Opticoat under Xpel and over entire car ($1000)

Condition: no accidents, body in flawless condition, 1 curbed wheel, always garaged.

Thanks much for any feedback.

I think the rule is: "As much as the market will bear". You just gotta find that point.

At 30 months old with 67,000 miles on my Tesla, Tesla's rule of thumb says I owe them money to take it. Good thing I don't want to trade it in.

mmccord · Apr 16, 2015

Mileage?

gnychis · Apr 16, 2015

mmccord said:
Mileage?

Wow, can't believe I missed that critical metric. 16,000 miles. I'll edit the original post also.

Stoneymonster · Apr 16, 2015

gnychis said:
Wow, can't believe I missed that critical metric. 16,000 miles. I'll edit the original post also.

Based on my limited experience in the California market, I'd bet somewhere in the $62k-68k range.

mmccord · Apr 16, 2015

gnychis said:
Wow, can't believe I missed that critical metric. 16,000 miles. I'll edit the original post also.

My calculator puts you at around 70k. Of course, I wrote it in December. I'm not sure how the 70D release is affecting resale values of S85s.
Also, being in Boston I would think the lack of AWD may be an issue for local buyers.

tga · Apr 16, 2015

mmccord said:
My calculator puts you at around 70k. Of course, I wrote it in December. I'm not sure how the 70D release is affecting resale values of S85s.
Also, being in Boston I would think the lack of AWD may be an issue for local buyers.

I think this 70D build is comparable (range/performance):

- 70D ($57,500)
- Smart Air ($2500)
- Pano ($1500)
- "Old gen" leather seats ($1750)
- Obeche wood ($750)
- Solid white paint ($0)
- Std 19" wheels ($0)

I skipped the premium interior/lighting package, as I'm not sure it's fair to add $3000 to the comparison just for foglights.

Add dual chargers ($2000 after delivery), and that comes out to $73,500 after fed and MA state incentives, for pretty much the same car new, with AWD, and the option to add autopilot later. I think that's your price ceiling.

It's early to tell how the 70D will impact used S85 sales, but I don't think it's going to be good. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but even throwing in $1200 for doc/delivery fee, I'd be hard pressed to pay $70k for a car that I can get new, with AWD, for less than $75k.

gnychis · Apr 16, 2015

tga said:
I think this 70D build is comparable (range/performance):

- 70D ($57,500)
- Smart Air ($2500)
- Pano ($1500)
- "Old gen" leather seats ($1750)
- Obeche wood ($750)
- Solid white paint ($0)
- Std 19" wheels ($0)

I skipped the premium interior/lighting package, as I'm not sure it's fair to add $3000 to the comparison just for foglights.

Add dual chargers ($2000 after delivery), and that comes out to $73,500 after fed and MA state incentives, for pretty much the same car new, with AWD, and the option to add autopilot later. I think that's your price ceiling.

It's early to tell how the 70D will impact used S85 sales, but I don't think it's going to be good. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but even throwing in $1200 for doc/delivery fee, I'd be hard pressed to pay $70k for a car that I can get new, with AWD, for less than $75k.

Really interesting breakdown, tga! I think what this shows is that the S85 (without dual motor) is slowly becoming obsolete. You can get a comparable car for cheaper. I just re-priced out my S85 on the Tesla website and it came out to $89k. So that's about a $5k difference for 25 miles of additional range. Is that the only major difference?

BTW- what happened to dual chargers on the Tesla website? Do all cars now come with dual chargers?

clarkbariowa · Apr 16, 2015

I would say $68K and dropping. You are competing with the influx of P85s available on the market right now. In a year it will be $50K.

Gizmotoy · Apr 16, 2015

tga said:
I think this 70D build is comparable (range/performance):

Tesla still makes the exact car he has. I'd say that is more comparable. Might as well compare like-to-like rather than assuming someone wants to trade off range for AWD. This car new is currently between $79.7k and $82.7k depending on how much value you put into the power liftgate, lighted door handles, and fog/cornering lights that came with its Tech package.

That said, considering the miles and being a year old with no autopilot capabilities, I agree with your general conclusion that I personally wouldn't pay $70k for it. Luxury car value drops extremely fast those first few years. I'd suggest somewhere in the mid-to-upper $60ks, as a gut feeling. Check out the for sale section for recent historical sales and also completed listings on eBay. That should give you a pretty good idea.

gnychis · Apr 16, 2015

Gizmotoy said:
Tesla still makes the exact car he has. I'd say that is more comparable. Might as well compare like-to-like rather than assuming someone wants to trade off range for AWD. This car new is currently between $79.7k and $82.7k depending on how much value you put into the power liftgate, lighted door handles, and fog/cornering lights that came with its Tech package.

That said, considering the miles and being a year old with no autopilot capabilities, I agree with your general conclusion that I personally wouldn't pay $70k for it. Luxury car value drops extremely fast those first few years. I'd suggest somewhere in the mid $60ks, as a gut feeling. Check out the for sale section for recent historical sales and also completed listings on eBay. That should give you a pretty good idea.

Thanks Gizmo. Just punching the numbers in and rebuilding my car came out to $89k+$1.2k regulatory. So right around $90k. After tax on $90k it would be $95.6k. If priced around $75k with tax would be around $79.5k to the buyer ($5k savings compared to new after the rebates). At $70k after tax it would be $75k ($10k savings compared to new after the rebates). I guess it all depends on how the buyer views a used car with 16,000 miles on it compared to brand new.

Enjoying all of the discussion, thanks all.

Blue_Model_S · Apr 16, 2015

gnychis said:
Really interesting breakdown, tga! I think what this shows is that the S85 (without dual motor) is slowly becoming obsolete. You can get a comparable car for cheaper. I just re-priced out my S85 on the Tesla website and it came out to $89k. So that's about a $5k difference for 25 miles of additional range. Is that the only major difference?

The lower range has a one more subtle effect. Supercharging that extra 25 miles on a 70D can take almost half hour more. So on out of town trips it can become a real annoyance depending on the distances between charging locations. For daily use, even a 60/40 was fine.

yobigd20 · Apr 16, 2015

Stoneymonster said:
Based on my limited experience in the California market, I'd bet somewhere in the $62k-68k range.

pre-70D, maybe. but now? no way. probably looking at the mid-high 50s unfortunately. The 70D is just such a great value now, and it includes the autopilot hardware. Trying to sell it in the 60s isn't worth it due to what you can get brand new for just 10k more.

Gizmotoy · Apr 16, 2015

Well, don't forget that the buyer receives a $10k total rebate in your state for buying new. Those differences in your example are actually more like $5k and $10k. Not very much discount at all for a high mileage year old car.

Edit: Ah! You made a ninja edit and came to the same conclusion.

tga · Apr 16, 2015

gnychis said:
So that's about a $5k difference for 25 miles of additional range. Is that the only major difference?

As far as I can tell - similar performance (top speed, 0-60, hp), AWD vs RWD, frunk space, and $5k. Step up to the 85D (another $5k), and you get 1 sec improvement in 0-60, higher top speed, and tiny bit more range.

As ToddRLockwood pointed out, it seems like the 70D is the equivalent of last year's S85, and the 85D is the equivalent of last year's P85.

gnychis said:
BTW- what happened to dual chargers on the Tesla website? Do all cars now come with dual chargers?

All cars now come with a single charger. If you want dual, only option is service center installation after delivery. The price for post-delivery installation was dropped from $3600 to $2000. Presumably this was done to streamline the assembly line.

EDIT: Blue_Model_S adds a good point about supercharging times

gnychis · Apr 16, 2015

Gizmotoy said:
Well, don't forget that the buyer receives a $10k total rebate in your state for buying new. Those differences in your example are actually more like $5k and $10k. Not very much discount at all for a high mileage year old car.

Edit: Ah! You made a ninja edit and came to the same conclusion.

haha yes, I caught myself right after I posted it

almost missed that key factor.

Thanks tga, I hadn't read about them stopping dual chargers in production. That adds a little more value then I guess.

Electroman · Apr 16, 2015

I think your biggest resale impact is going to be the introduction of TACC, which is I believe is of real value, and other autopilot fluff which people love to talk and brag about.

The AWD I don't believe has much value in warmer climates and in fact the reduced range of a 70D compared to 85, IMHO, is going to be more than nuisance once people realize it. So once the initial frenzy of 70D settles down, I don't think it will be considered a like to like substitute for 85. Range is king. 2 motors or 10, doesn't mean much if you can't go the distance and charge quicker. Remember how 'A' battery users were upset because it charges slower in a SC. Similar charging difference would be between 70 and 80 kwh.

gnychis · Apr 16, 2015

mkjayakumar said:
I think your biggest resale impact is going to be the introduction of TACC, which is I believe is of real value, and other autopilot fluff which people love to talk and brag about.

The AWD I don't believe has much value in warmer climates and in fact the reduced range of a 70D compared to 85, IMHO, is going to be more than nuisance once people realize it. So once the initial frenzy of 70D settles down, I don't think it will be considered a like to like substitute for 85. Range is king. 2 motors or 10, doesn't mean much if you can't go the distance and charge quicker. Remember how 'A' battery users were upset because it charges slower in a SC. Similar charging difference would be between 70 and 80 kwh.

Sorry, mkjay, what is TACC?

ItsNotAboutTheMoney · Apr 16, 2015

gnychis said:
Sorry, mkjay, what is TACC?

Traffic Aware (Adaptive) Cruise Control. AutoPilot cars have it.

Xpress · Apr 16, 2015

Recent Manheim auction sales

04/01/15	Regular	$75,000	10,411	Above	EL	A	Yes
03/26/15	Regular	$70,000	21,870	Avg	EL	A	Yes
03/25/15	Regular	$65,000	9,516	Below	EL	A	Yes
03/19/15	Regular	$75,500	5,803	Above	EL	A	Yes
03/05/15	Lease	$73,000	3,746	Avg	EL	A	Yes
03/05/15	Regular	$68,500	16,962	Avg	EL	A	Yes

- - - Updated - - -

And model year 2013 Model S:

04/15/15	Regular	$69,000	18,106	Above	EL	A	Yes
04/14/15	Regular	$68,800	10,258	Above	EL	A	Yes
04/09/15	Regular	$62,000	27,255	Avg	EL	A	Yes
04/07/15	Regular	$55,500	30,030	Below	EL	A	Yes
04/01/15	Regular	$61,000	39,287	Avg	EL	A	Yes
03/26/15	Regular	$61,250	31,283	Avg	EL	A	Yes
03/19/15	Regular	$66,500	9,962	Avg	EL		Yes
03/18/15	Regular	$63,500	23,884	Avg	EL	A	Yes

- - - Updated - - -

04/15/15	Regular	$69,000	18,106	Above	EL	A	Yes
04/14/15	Regular	$68,800	10,258	Above	EL	A	Yes
04/09/15	Regular	$62,000	27,255	Avg	EL	A	Yes
04/07/15	Regular	$55,500	30,030	Below	EL	A	Yes
04/01/15	Regular	$61,000	39,287	Avg	EL	A	Yes
03/26/15	Regular	$61,250	31,283	Avg	EL	A	Yes
03/19/15	Regular	$66,500	9,962	Avg	EL		Yes
03/18/15	Regular	$63,500	23,884	Avg	EL	A	Yes

Realistically, how much is my Model S worth today?

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