What is a 6yo Model S worth with 150K miles?

thegruf said:

What pushes the value up or down?

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Edit:14:03 GMT 27/3
I would say

Up
If Tesla stops or slow down S production.
If they keep improving and making the car upgradable, not only software.
If the car keeps the battery degradation low.
If the Hype of Teslas continues
If comparable cars continues to not exist for the same or lower price

Down
Major upgrades that can't be retrofitted, like autopilot or Dual motors
Lower price of a new one
Better and cheaper car emerges. "Think Magic dust is needed for this one".
A battery thats cheaper and more dense than the existing. "Would make the car as expensive but a new battery would lower the price of the old one."
S gets as common as it is in Cali everywhere. "That would take a while."
If maintenance gets very expensive, "doubt this though"
If battery degradation gets 2 rough

But you can feel pretty sure that Tesla won't produce so much cars as it would lower the price that much..

Quite a lot, actually.

The poster above forgot to include the fact that the powertrain/drive unit is ALSO covered for eight year and infinite miles as of late 2014, IIRC, and this warranty upgrade was retroactive to every Model S ever built (with the 85 kWh battery pack). Thus, the two most expensive parts of the car are effectively of no concern for a full eight years.

Furthermore, the continuous upgrades and driving for free (or nearly so with solar panels on one's roof and the SuperCharger network) are another benefit that just won't seem to get old, ever.

Let's assume the battery goes south in year nine or ten. The cost curve for a replacement battery has been working out well over the past few years, and with the GF on line in just another few years, it's a safe bet that new (refurbished) or salvage yard packs will be available for perhaps $3k to $5k, thus providing another decade of use for a small investment....

By comparison, it appears that one can't give away an older MBZ S-Class, Audi A8, or BMW 7-Series with that kind of miles and age, mostly because at that point they're mere minutes away, or are overdue for, a 4- or 5-figure repair . . . and a long-term relationship with a repair shop.

p.s. And we'd be remiss to not attach some value to both the Zero Emissions aspects. As the affects of climate change continue to force even the most stubborn to open their eyes to the planetary-scale risks we're taking, one might expect some form of carbon/GHG tax to eventually take hold, thus making the value of an older Tesla rise relative to its peers. Likewise, what price safety? Driving what is predicted to be THE safest car on the planet has significant value as well and by 2018 the data may clearly show the death and injury rates on MS's is far, far less than comparable cars, also boosting value.

thegruf said:

Depreciation is the major cost of ownership, even more so with EVs

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Says who?

eco5280 said:

Says who?

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Given the decreasing range with time and miles and the replacement cost for a battery (currently around $44k), it is a reasonable assumption that a high mileage EV would have relatively more depreciation that an equally well cared for ICE.

eco5280 said:

Says who?

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not to mention improving battery technology that could (potentially) make an 85kwh battery obsolete. this also applies to ICE (new engine tech) but I would argue to a lesser degree. Again, this is all speculative at this stage

People said the same about hybrids. Go check out the values of the 1st Gen Honda Insight and Toyota Prius and Highlander Hybrid and Lexus RX400h hybrids.

efusco said:

Given the decreasing range with time and miles and the replacement cost for a battery (currently around $44k), it is a reasonable assumption that a high mileage EV would have relatively more depreciation that an equally well cared for ICE.

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Except that we're not seeing a lot of decreasing range and cost to replace the battery is going to decrease.

One thing I see happening, though. In the past the development of cars over the years has been rather slow and incremental. An S-class Benz from 10 years ago didn't seem like an old, outdated car. It was missing a few modern features, but was otherwise still great. The way Tesla currently progresses, that's going to change. Cars will have more dramatic improvements and will get shorter product cycles like we see them in cameras, phones, game consoles and so on. The top of the line car from Tesla in 2022 will make the first Model S (from 2012) look pretty old and outdated.

P85D 691HP should have an asterisk * next to it..
Rear Wheel Drive P85 is a Missed Opportunity for Tesla

Granted that the above threads are specific to the P85, but there is a case to be made that the more simplistic original run of cars have the making of a 'classic car', as ironic as that sounds with the most high-tech car of its day (and only 3 years old to boot!)

AziwA said:

not to mention improving battery technology that could (potentially) make an 85kwh battery obsolete. this also applies to ICE (new engine tech) but I would argue to a lesser degree. Again, this is all speculative at this stage

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I personally disagree with this. Look at the Roadster. There is an upgrade coming out that will increase its range basically doubling it. Unlike an ICE car it is possible to make your BEV car better with age. Although not a guarantee, I can see a time in the not too distance future where Tesla releases a battery upgrade option to 170kWh for $20k -- Yeah that's a good chunk of change but now you have 2x the range with a simple battery swap which would be available for your car. No idea if this will actually happen, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility. If this does become an option, it may decrease the value of an 85kWh Model S, but since the buyer will have the option to upgrade, I don't think it will hit as hard as many think. All depends on a lot of variables that we simply don't have right now.

thegruf said:

So what would you pay today for an S85 or a P85D which is 6 years old and 150K miles on it compared to an ICE?

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Today? I'd be more interested in buying the time machine used to retrieve it.

efusco said:

Given the decreasing range with time and miles and the replacement cost for a battery (currently around $44k), it is a reasonable assumption that a high mileage EV would have relatively more depreciation that an equally well cared for ICE.

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I see where you are going with this; however, its like comparing apples to oranges.

The ICE vehicle has many more moving parts along the drivetrain and if you are looking at it with a more apples to apples comparison, one needs to include the entire drivetrain. This easily makes the cost comparison equal (engine; transmission, axels and associated gear movements; double the complexity if the car is all wheel drive). Then, when we look at the wear parts against each other there is far more risk of added cost and failure to the ICE vehicle. And, in comparison I would say that risk of mechanical failure, increased cost of ownership due to this, and depreciating pressures would be greater in the traditional ICE vehicle....lets not forget that the battery pack can detect and replace individual failing cells for 8 years of ownership.

efusco said:

Given the decreasing range with time and miles and the replacement cost for a battery (currently around $44k), it is a reasonable assumption that a high mileage EV would have relatively more depreciation that an equally well cared for ICE.

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I see what you're saying and agree it is a factor, but I think you are omitting a couple of things. First, a BEV has significantly lower operating costs than a competing ICE, and that translates in to less depreciation. Second, the battery prices have already come way down. As the Model S came out, Musk announced the price would be $12k for an 85kWh battery in 8 years, which they are still sticking to (although the option to pre-buy it never materialized). If you stop by a store and ask a product specialist, they are currently saying that a replacement 85kWh battery costs $25k if you were to have to buy one now. Odd that there was no announcement for this; but perhaps that's because Tesla really doesn't feel batteries are generally going to be replaced, especially now that they are all under warranty for at least a few more years. They were designed to last 16 years - by then they may be down to 60% capacity, but that's still far more range than most BEVs currently on the road.

In general, I don't bother with resale comparisons between vastly different technologies - there are just too many variables. What if there is increased 3rd-world petroleum demand, or a war lowers petroleum supplies, and gas prices triple? I would think an 8-year-old Model S (which probably still has 90% of its original range) would look very attractive, especially if battery supplies are still restrictive and they can't build enough new EVs to meet demand. That's only one example; it could go the other way, but it is just an illustration that we have absolutely no idea what resale values will be.

efusco said:

Given the decreasing range with time and miles and the replacement cost for a battery (currently around $44k), it is a reasonable assumption that a high mileage EV would have relatively more depreciation that an equally well cared for ICE.

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Has anyone had to pay full price to replace a Model S pack yet??? I don't think this is a real number. The Roadster pack may not cost as much as the Model S pack but Tesla only charges $5000 to replace a faulty Roadster pack with a refurbished one of equal or greater capacity.

ChadS said:

I see what you're saying and agree it is a factor, but I think you are omitting a couple of things. First, a BEV has significantly lower operating costs than a competing ICE, and that translates in to less depreciation. Second, the battery prices have already come way down. As the Model S came out, Musk announced the price would be $12k for an 85kWh battery in 8 years, which they are still sticking to (although the option to pre-buy it never materialized). If you stop by a store and ask a product specialist, they are currently saying that a replacement 85kWh battery costs $25k if you were to have to buy one now. Odd that there was no announcement for this; but perhaps that's because Tesla really doesn't feel batteries are generally going to be replaced, especially now that they are all under warranty for at least a few more years. They were designed to last 16 years - by then they may be down to 60% capacity, but that's still far more range than most BEVs currently on the road.

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Funny not replacing the pack is what the Nissan executives counted on. I think Tesla is a little bit better at looking to the future than to suggest no one would want to buy a higher capacity battery for an old car.

David Noland upgraded his 60 to an 85, and has documented what he paid on greencarreports, link below.
Life With Tesla Model S: Battery Upgrade From 60 kWh To 85 kWh (Page 3)

Here's the cost breakdown he gave:
"The cost breakdown looked like this: Price of the new battery was $44,564. The trade-in value of my old battery was $29,681--a number arrived at by discounting its new list price of $37,102 by a 20-percent "restocking" fee. I had hoped that the trade-in value of my old battery would be prorated for its actual use--10 months and 11,000 miles out of its guaranteed life of eight years and 125,000 miles. This would have amounted to about a 10-percent "restocking fee" rather than the actual 20 percent. But Tesla needs to make a profit on this transaction; I understand that. The net cost to me of the new battery was $14,883. Adding five hours of labor ($600), minor parts ($125), the battery shipping cost ($1,520), and sales tax ($1,257) brought the grand total to $18,386.

FWIW, I looked up the private sale value of a 2009 M-B S Class, 2WD 5.5L, with options comparable with a loaded Model S, at 150,000 miles, and it's about $18k plus or minus for Excellent or VG condition.

PokerBroker said:

Has anyone had to pay full price to replace a Model S pack yet??? I don't think this is a real number. The Roadster pack may not cost as much as the Model S pack but Tesla only charges $5000 to replace a faulty Roadster pack with a refurbished one of equal or greater capacity.

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Bencredible said:

I personally disagree with this. Look at the Roadster. There is an upgrade coming out that will increase its range basically doubling it. Unlike an ICE car it is possible to make your BEV car better with age. Although not a guarantee, I can see a time in the not too distance future where Tesla releases a battery upgrade option to 170kWh for $20k -- Yeah that's a good chunk of change but now you have 2x the range with a simple battery swap which would be available for your car. No idea if this will actually happen, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility. If this does become an option, it may decrease the value of an 85kWh Model S, but since the buyer will have the option to upgrade, I don't think it will hit as hard as many think. All depends on a lot of variables that we simply don't have right now.

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I think 170kWh in model S is pushing it. Maybe they'll offer a upgraded pack in a few years but I don't think it'll be double the 85 kWh option. If it were just a 125 kWh or 130 kWh it'd be a hugh range increase and still be very long charge times on 10KW L2 and would increase the stress on the supercharging infrastructure.

eco5280 said:

People said the same about hybrids. Go check out the values of the 1st Gen Honda Insight and Toyota Prius and Highlander Hybrid and Lexus RX400h hybrids.

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I didn't say that about hybrids. Very different technology. Yes, there was a lot of fear and ignorance about hybrids. But we know, and Tesla has confirmed, an anticipated signficant loss of range over the life of the vehicle. I don't think the things are going to just flat out die, but I've lost at least 15 miles of range over 50k miles. If that rate continues I'll be down to about 240 miles maximum range charge at 150k. Not terrible, but certainly not "like new", esp. if there is a 500 mile pack out there by then.

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Bencredible said:

I personally disagree with this. Look at the Roadster. There is an upgrade coming out that will increase its range basically doubling it. Unlike an ICE car it is possible to make your BEV car better with age. Although not a guarantee, I can see a time in the not too distance future where Tesla releases a battery upgrade option to 170kWh for $20k -- Yeah that's a good chunk of change but now you have 2x the range with a simple battery swap which would be available for your car. No idea if this will actually happen, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility. If this does become an option, it may decrease the value of an 85kWh Model S, but since the buyer will have the option to upgrade, I don't think it will hit as hard as many think. All depends on a lot of variables that we simply don't have right now.

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Using your example, even a lowish mileage Roadster is going for ~1/2 of the original price. Yes, you can now pay a whole bunch of money to upgrade, but that's not going to be something that will help the original vehicle avoid depreciation. Look, I don't care, much, if it depreciates, I drive my cars into the ground. But to suggest that battery degradation won't be a factor is just not realistic.

In 10 years, it will probably be worth the breakup value. That's what big luxury cars typically do, and I see no reason why the Model S should be any different. The big question in this is, does the battery have a core value? Or, alternatively, would you have to pay to dispose of it?

If you have to pay to dispose of the battery, then the car is going to be worth quite a bit less in 10 years, but either way it will be less than $10k at best.

I was going to discuss technological improvements which I think are coming over the next ten years and why I think that would drive the price down, and then I realized that it really doesn't matter-- it will never go below breakup value, and it will probably end up there either way.

EDIT: You said 6 years, so still under warranty, probably a bit more. More like $20k. I think the dropoff will be steep once the 8 year powertrain warranty expires.