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Strange Ideal vs. Estimated miles behavior

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I thought the Ideal Miles calculation was based on the CAC and the Estimated Miles was discounted from this by an amount that depends on one's driving habits. But several times, while conservatively driving about 50 miles on the freeway, my Estimated Miles display actually EXCEEDED my Ideal Miles display by 4-5 miles. Anyone understand this?
 
The other thing that factors in is that the Estimated Miles is based on a short (I'll let someone else chime in here as I do not recall) sampling distance.

Because the last 6 miles of my 54 mile typical commute home is through town, I regularly reach my garage with more Estimated than Ideal miles (at least in the summer).
 
The other thing that factors in is that the Estimated Miles is based on a short (I'll let someone else chime in here as I do not recall) sampling distance.

Because the last 6 miles of my 54 mile typical commute home is through town, I regularly reach my garage with more Estimated than Ideal miles (at least in the summer).

If I recall it's 40 miles, and it's stored in one of the not-encrypted files that you can dump via USB (whpm.log).

My estimated goes over ideal all the time when I come down from mountains, charging my car as I zoom past vehicles doing the considerably more inelegant periodic braking and idling.