When will we get our first look at the Model 3?

Elon gave a talk somewhere recently and said the Model 3 won't be shown until next year. I apologise, I can't recall where it was he said that.

I suppose that could be the "secret weapon on the demand side" - going a bit earlier with a prototype reveal and opening up the order books - but I think they want to keep 2015 limelight reserved for Model X.

Elon said Model X won't be shown until ready to deliver - so Model X will be shown in mid 2015. It was announced as shipping in late 2013.
Model 3 has been announced for 2017, so I expect that we'll see it at some point in 2019?

May, 2017. Four months before release.

2017. Two years before release. Which will be a huge improvement over every other product they've introduced.

After the summer of 2015 and the release of the MX, the engineers and designers would be out of work. So they will be assigned the M3 project. As the MX will be a mature car when it is released, it will not take as much design and engineering capacity as the MS did in its first year.

The team can build on a lot of the design and engineering that went into MS and MX. MS was goundbreaking, everything new. M3 much different. All the power train, user interface, perhaps even little things like seats, mirrors etc can be adapted to the M3.

So I think the time to put an M3 on the road will be much shorter than it took to get the MX - about 3 years after the MS. 2 years seem about right. 2015 + 2 = 2017. I think by 2017 we might see the M3.

Only at first deliveries :smile:

Probably 2016.

aarons23 said:

I know Electrek.co has quoted Elon with saying "the Model 3 remains on track for a 2017 release", however, I wonder if that means release to consumers or just release the concepts. I agree with Johaan that most of the features from the Model X and S will be able to be moved to the Model 3 leaving not as much innovation, ie. Falcon Wing Doors.

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It means customers will have it some time during 2017. During 2016 we will see lots of Model 3 news, since its battery factory will start putting out packs. (at first they will be building packs for Model S and Model X)

I imagine Tesla Motors will want to pad their bank account with $2,500 deposit checks some time in 2016, so they will allow the order book to open nice and early. This cash will help to pay for Superchargers, which is exactly what the subsidy is about, but also the number of orders will help them gauge how many extra Superchargers to build.

You can be quite confident in the timeline above, because Tesla are building a $5billion factory to produce the batteries for it, of which a large chunk of investment comes from Panasonic and other mining & manufacturing partner companies who'll be putting corporate offices and industrial machinery of their own inside the Gigafactory premises. These companies will not want Elon to be sitting around repeatedly changing the design and delaying the release of the Model 3, any more than investors and future customers will. So, unlike what happened with the Model X, the Model 3 won't deviate too far from previously published schedules.

Personally I think the model 3 won't be in owners hands until 2018. Just based on how the X timeline has played out.

I'm pretty sure regardless of when the actual car ships they will show a concept in 2016. They need to keep people excited for the next thing and showing a concept is easy.

gregincal said:

I'm pretty sure regardless of when the actual car ships they will show a concept in 2016. They need to keep people excited for the next thing and showing a concept is easy.

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And they will want our deposit money:smile:

aronth5 said:

And they will want our deposit money:smile:

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I trust Tesla to build us an awesome Model 3, and I'd be more than happy to deposit today.
I'm looking forward to expanding my fleet to S85, P85D, and 2x M3...

At the last earnings call elon said the modelX delay would not impact the model3 and that they couldn't let it because the gigafactory is on track. This is also where the "less radical design" comment came from, so that the model3 doesn't get delayed like the X
So 2017... Go elon.

aronth5 said:

And they will want our deposit money:smile:

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I think that at this point Tesla cares a lot more about not revealing the product too early.

Disadvantages of revealing early:
1. Cannibalize Model S/X sales
2. Reveals trade secrets to competition
3. Expose them to our massive pining and wining.

Advantages of revealing early:
1. Deposit money.
2. Longer free press cycle.

Tesla no longer has a cashflow problem. They do not need the deposit money like they did up til 2013.
If they got 20,000 deposits of $2500 - that only adds up to $50M.
They don't need $50M, if they do they can borrow it cheaply now. Sitting on that for 6 months doesn't seem worth the cost.

Lets hope that the Model 3 doesn't run into the same issues that caused a delay with the Model X.

Since they are going more conservative, there should be less engineering to overcome. The interior/exterior should be simpler...and most likely everything will be slightly less refined.

It may be a bit optimistic, especially with regard to previous delays, but I don't believe we'll see a significant delay with the Model 3.

Late 2016 at the earliest would be my guess.

JohnSnowNW said:

...and most likely everything will be slightly less refined.

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I hope this part is not true. Especially if they intend to compete with Mercedes, BMW and Audi with it.

richkae said:

2. Reveals trade secrets to competition

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That part is definitely not true. Not any more than the Model X concepts revealed trade secrets. They can change as many things as they want between the initial concept and the final car, the concept is just to get people excited.

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richkae said:

3. Expose them to our massive pining and wining.

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That's going to happen no matter what.