Here we go again....Please poke holes in my analysis. Plenty of people smarter than I on this forum but below is how I see it.
I agree that this forum is probably the worst place to try to sell if expecting top dollar and the best place to buy if priced right. There are just so many well informed buyers aware of the supply/demand situation going on. I look at the overall market four ways: allofcraigs.com - Search ALL of Craigslist, cars.com, ebaymotors and TMC. In general the sweet spot to sell quick with mileage between 5k and 25k seems to be: P85 $72-$77k, S85 $65-72k, S60 $58-62K. Some options (dual Chargers, yacht flooring, 21 vs 19, third row seats) appear to have very little effect on the overall pricing, some options like Pano, Tech Package and Air Suspension have a much larger effect and low mileage seems to be expected and high mileage greatly discounted (>12k annually is excessive). Colors that seem to bring in the price premiums (white, silver, grey) and price discounts (black, blue, brown). The biggest killer of resale value seems to be low VIN (reliability, built quality, age, lack of newest features or combo?) and age (2012 ouch, 2013 snore, 2014 without auto-pilot meh and 2014 with auto-pilot big premium). Seems to me the depreciation curve is @ 2%/month and $1 mile which makes sense considering Tesla's own model is 1%/month and $1/mile for their demo/loaners. I'm thinking values will take a quick and painful 10% drop when the Xs start to reach garages and then flatten out by mid 2016 with used prices85 <$60k, S85<$55k and S60<$45k. The Tesla buy back program will also become a major player is used resale valuation. Well, there are my total amateur guesstimates for everyone to poke holes into and ultimately time will prove just how inaccurate. Of course, the car is amazing, life is short, talk is cheap and hard earned money is well worth spending but it's a fun mental exercise for me.
I agree that this forum is probably the worst place to try to sell if expecting top dollar and the best place to buy if priced right. There are just so many well informed buyers aware of the supply/demand situation going on. I look at the overall market four ways: allofcraigs.com - Search ALL of Craigslist, cars.com, ebaymotors and TMC. In general the sweet spot to sell quick with mileage between 5k and 25k seems to be: P85 $72-$77k, S85 $65-72k, S60 $58-62K. Some options (dual Chargers, yacht flooring, 21 vs 19, third row seats) appear to have very little effect on the overall pricing, some options like Pano, Tech Package and Air Suspension have a much larger effect and low mileage seems to be expected and high mileage greatly discounted (>12k annually is excessive). Colors that seem to bring in the price premiums (white, silver, grey) and price discounts (black, blue, brown). The biggest killer of resale value seems to be low VIN (reliability, built quality, age, lack of newest features or combo?) and age (2012 ouch, 2013 snore, 2014 without auto-pilot meh and 2014 with auto-pilot big premium). Seems to me the depreciation curve is @ 2%/month and $1 mile which makes sense considering Tesla's own model is 1%/month and $1/mile for their demo/loaners. I'm thinking values will take a quick and painful 10% drop when the Xs start to reach garages and then flatten out by mid 2016 with used prices85 <$60k, S85<$55k and S60<$45k. The Tesla buy back program will also become a major player is used resale valuation. Well, there are my total amateur guesstimates for everyone to poke holes into and ultimately time will prove just how inaccurate. Of course, the car is amazing, life is short, talk is cheap and hard earned money is well worth spending but it's a fun mental exercise for me.