I know Elon said about a year ago that they will stop with this nonsense.
But reading through the forums once again the European deliveries promised for the first month of the next quarter (April this time) seem to have all been pushed out to "late second month of the quarter" (May) and quite a few high value cars in the US have been pulled in with P85D for March delivery available until about Mar 10.
This is foolish pandering to clueless Wall St bean counters. It makes no meaningful difference for the company, worse it risks pissing off even more customers and potential customers outside of the US.
At what point can Tesla just stop doing this and provide a more predictable delivery time outlook to its customers?
There are additional systemic impacts I see as well. Internally, you have employees going through a boom / bust work cycle on a regular basis. That is extra stress and it's no longer needed. I do believe that there was a time, about 1 to 1.5 years back, when Model S was still ramping and quarter to quarter revenue really did make a difference in the survivability of the company. I believe that we're past that point now.
As I look longer term at Tesla, this is in fact one of the things I'm watching as a long term risk to the company.
The behavior I would like to see is a company wide decision to optimize total production while ignoring arbitrary quarter end cutoffs. That will sometimes result in large numbers of US cars being produced (and delivered) at the end of the quarter and will sometimes result in large numbers of Asia / Europe cars being produced at the end of the quarter, and it doesn't matter. Optimize the production of the cars in a way that is designed to make the production smooth and regular. I figure that involves batches of cars (similar options list, similar geographic destination), but really what I figure is irrelevant - whatever helps improve the sustainable production rate without burning out your increasingly experienced employees.
Within that set of optimization criteria, if the company chooses to permanently prioritize the P85D orders ahead of 85D and 60's, I'm completely fine with that. It's a subtle but useful carrot to entice people to upgrade to a more expensive and more profitable car.
To help make the Wall Street crowd more happy, I believe the company can do a better job of emphasizing production numbers and deemphasizing delivery numbers. Production numbers are all cars that are within a week or 5 of being delivered to an end purchaser and are not like a produced car from other car makers. They do have a small timing vagary associated with revenue recognition, but all produced cars are very close in time (say a month or less) from revenue recognition, depending on how far away / how much shipping is involved. Emphasize the production numbers and the ASP, and the analysts that want to can translate produced but undelivered cars into revenue that is early arriving in the next quarter, and even redo Tesla's financials (pretend that the produced but undelivered cars were delivered) as a what-if.
In process terms, the production process can be optimized for the least variance and greatest throughput, while allowing variance in the delivery process and the corresponding impact to the quarter end numbers. That variance is constrained and a shortfall in one quarter turns directly into a windfall the next, and both are meaningless. With further practice of both processes, I'm sure Tesla will also find ways to begin reducing the variance within the delivery process.