Cost Anxiety; not Range

malcolm · Aug 26, 2010

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring...s-of-drivers-turned-off-by-electric-cars.html

http://www.parkers.co.uk/News/News/Car-buyers-turned-off-by-electric-cars/

According to the website Parkers.co.uk, which surveyed 500 people, motorists are concerned about how long it would take to work off the extra cost of buying an electric car, compared to the economical running costs of an efficient diesel car.

.....The lack of dedicated charging stations, however, did not appear to be a purchase deterrent, with just six per cent saying this would put them off.

From the parkers link:

Comparing the cheapest electric car, the Nissan Leaf at £23,990 (after the £5,000 discount), to the SEAT Leon 1.6TDI Ecomotive S - which costs £16,840 - it could take up to 12 and a half years before buyers see any real savings.

Of course, your mileage may vary.

mpt · Aug 26, 2010

This bothers me:

The survey also found that 18% of people wouldn't buy an EV because they don't think they are actually 'green', with another 17% still believing conventional cars are just better.

The "Clarkson effect"?

Jaff · Aug 26, 2010

So 35% total don't buy the "greenness / conventional car" arguments, eh? That sounds about right. :biggrin:

How's that old quote go..."Just think how stupid the average person is, then remember half of those folks are even stupider..."

:biggrin::wink:

I find it odd that many folks spend hours each week sorting, recycling, composting and performing other green tasks, but when it comes to cars, economics always has to enter the equation.

Time is money. Time is more valuable than money (in the long run).

Give me time to drive an electric vehicle like the Tesla, and I'll feel less guilty about my recycling transgressions..:biggrin::wink:

MPT said:
This bothers me:

The "Clarkson effect"?

tdelta1000 · Aug 26, 2010

"it could take up to 12 and a half years before buyers see any real savings."

This statement fails to factor in the costs of maintaining an ICE vehicle (spark plugs, oils, air filter and the labor for changing those item).

Therefore, in 12 twelve years the EV would end up being cheaper in the long run.

malcolm · Aug 27, 2010

True, but the elephant in our service station is the issue of battery replacement, which is also likely to impact on the growth of a second-hand EV market.

How fast/far can manufacturers drive down costs on the pack?

tdelta1000 · Aug 29, 2010

malcolm said:
True, but the elephant in our service station is the issue of battery replacement, which is also likely to impact on the growth of a second-hand EV market.

How fast/far can manufacturers drive down costs on the pack?

I think within three to five years the cost of an EV battery pack will drop becuase the number of manufactures building batteries.

malcolm · Aug 30, 2010

http://green.autoblog.com/2010/08/2...-mievs-total-cost-of-ownership-might-be-high/

With an EV, the battery pack often accounts for a much larger percentage of the car's original value other types of vehicles. While an engine that has been maintained properly can easily exhibit most of its original performance after 100,000 miles – and many can often go 200,000 miles or more – the same cannot reliably be said (yet, as far as we know) of a battery in an EV. The reality is that no one really knows how much value a battery will retain after 50,000 or 100,000 miles. It's a hard number to calculate. Nissan has said that the Leaf battery might only hold 80 or 70 percent of its original charge after ten years, for example, which will make it worth less. Speaking to the BBC, Mitsubishi has acknowledged that the i-MiEV's depreciation over three years could turn out to be more than the original cost of an internal combustion car (a Fiat 500 Lounge 1.2 petrol, in the example given). That's a tough bunch of numbers.

In the short/medium term EVs will continue to be more expensive than their ICE equivalents, both in terms of purchase and battery replacement.

If, howsever, the Roadster's battery pack costs £13,000 to replace (and assuming 100,000 miles uses £2000 of electricity) then that still works out cheaper than 100,000 miles-worth of UK petrol at a fixed £1.15 per litre for any car getting less that 35mpg (that's imperial gallons, of course).

We forget that it took over ten years for mobile phones to develop from their (laughable) first appearance in the 1980s to mass market breakthrough in the early 2000s. (And even then, they had to be pushed as fashion accessories with repaceable covers to the teenager and young adult markets - who foresaw that?)

We haven't even reached the tenth anniversary of the debut of the Roadster. In mobile phone terms, we're still stuck in the 1980s, trying to puzzle out the next move.

tomsax · Aug 30, 2010

I doubt that the only cars that sell in the UK are those cars in each class which have the lowest total cost of ownership. People buy cars partly based on cost but also on other factors: convenience, comfort, driving experience, and visual appeal.

The advantages of driving electric only start with reduced CO2 and low fuel cost. There's also instant torque largely independent of speed, the convenience of not having to fuel at a gas/petrol station, independence from wildly fluctuating oil prices, and the satisfaction of using locally produced energy instead of sending your fuel dollars overseas.

Once people start to see EVs on the road and hear about them from their friends and coworkers, they'll find out that they want to drive electric even if it does cost a little extra. As the cost of EVs comes down and the price of oil goes up, we'll be ready with an auto industry capable of building the cars everyone will want.

mpt · Aug 30, 2010

tomsax: agreed; it's the living with electric that changes your priorities.

We should also look at the cost of ownership of a comparable 911... Service costs anyone?

kgb · Aug 30, 2010

malcolm said:
In the short/medium term EVs will continue to be more expensive than their ICE equivalents, both in terms of purchase and battery replacement.

Real simple solution: Gov't needs to subsidize battery purchase and replacement in the same way they subsidize gasoline now. Even better, stop subsidizing gasoline and subsidize battery/fuel cell technology instead.

SByer · Aug 30, 2010

911? It was nuts. I'm not very good at keeping track of such things, but it was _more_. Tires were about equivalent, but it was never less than $1500 when going in at least once a year, and when the soft top had to be replaced... oy! Let's not even talk about the clutch...

There are many more EV advantages that are more subtle, but all adding up. Peacefulness is one I don't hear often, but I feel every day. Stopped at a light, I don't feel the constant pressure of go-go-go from a rumbling block of inefficiency. Plus, if I'm at the front of the line, there's the fun part to anticipate (and it's pure fun, not like the balky launches in the 911 if I didn't get the clutch release _just so_).

kgb: How about just stop subsidizing gas? I strongly believe a free market works if all costs are exposed. Current alternative technologies would already be a clear win on an even playing field...

vfx · Aug 31, 2010

Agree with the simple act of removing oil and gas subsidies. Putting gasoline at it's real number of around $10 a gallon would make EVs a slam dunk.

mpt · Aug 31, 2010

SByer said:
911... rumbling block of inefficiency.

Too funny LOL

tdelta1000 · Aug 31, 2010

Here is an outdate on this topic that points out the lower cost of batteries:Lower Battery cost article

malcolm · Sep 1, 2010

tdelta1000 said:
Here is an outdate on this topic that points out the lower cost of batteries:Lower Battery cost article

Well that's a step in the right direction. But of course, we're a long way from seeing this sort of cutthroat competition between EV makers, so these savings may not get passed on.

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Cost Anxiety; not Range

malcolm

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Electrics are back

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