US Market Share: Tesla vs Large Luxury Cars

Pretty impressive! Way to go Tesla

Tesla S and MB S are both doing very well.

RobStark said:

Tesla delivered ~16,500 Model S units in 2014 in the USA.

Large Luxury Car	December 2014	December 2013	% Change	2014 ▴	2013	% Change
Mercedes-Benz S-Class​	2832​	1857	52.5%	25,276	13,303	90.0%
BMW 7-Series​	1096​	1119	-2.1%	9744	10,932	-10.9%
BMW 6-Series *​	624​	1078	-42.1%	8647	9762	-11.4%
Lexus LS​	1020​	1064	-4.1%	8559	10,727	-20.2%
Audi A7 *​	524​	944	-44.5%	8133	8483	-4.1%
Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class *​	575 ​	710	-19.0%	6981	8032	-13.1%
Audi A8​	732​	718	2.0%	5904	6300	-6.3%
Porsche Panamera​	320​	500	-36.0%	5740	5421	5.9%
Jaguar XJ​	375​	449	-16.5%	4329	5434	-20.3%
---​	---​	---	---	---	---	---
Total​	8098​	8439	-4.0%	83,313	78,394	6.3%

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Can you point me to your data source for this info @RobStark?

I'm curious about a wider view of the data. Such as a longer historical view of each of these models, so we have more than a '13 to '14 view of their trend.

I'm also wondering about the degree to which the drop in everybody except S-class sales is due to Model S, or is due to S-class - that sort of thing.

Thanks!

Very cool. Kinda wish it listed the base price for each one as well.

RobStark said:

Also interesting to note that although Porsche Panamera is up 5.9% over 2013 it is down 24.6% over 2012.

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It's perspectives like this that I'm interested in investigating more thoroughly. I've contacted the goodcarbadcar folks via email asking about downloadable data sets, but haven't heard back from them. I look around on the website for downloadable data sets, but didn't find anything. It looks like they have the data in a friendly format behind the scenes, but I only see published articles with bits and snatches of data.

What I'd like to have is data at the level of detail you posted, but going back to say 2000 or so. Long enough to establish a longer term trend within individual makes and models, so we can then better assess the ripples formed when Model S was cast into the pond in 2012 (not much I suspect) and then follow through in 2013 and now 2014. I'm confident that Porsche is very aware of Panamera sales being down 24% in 2014 over 2012 for instance, but the 2 year view of the data doesn't show that. H'mm - and that's approximately the window where we see Model S delivering a noticeably large number of vehicles into this very low volume segment.

Thanks again for the interesting info Rob.

The Merc S-class got a big pop because it's a new model last year, with lots of nice new features and performance. It'll settle back to lower levels in a few more months. What I see in the trend is that all of these guys are losing market share to the Model S on a sustained basis.

ggr said:

The Merc S-class got a big pop because it's a new model last year, with lots of nice new features and performance. It'll settle back to lower levels in a few more months. What I see in the trend is that all of these guys are losing market share to the Model S on a sustained basis.

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That's my theory also ggr. I'd like to be able to quantify it, and maybe model how the market share changes might propagate into the future.

What all of these models have in common is they are very expensive status symbols, I would remove both the Lexus and the CLS from the list because they are more common especially in LA. The Panamera has had very small updates over the past several years and the base model is out powered by most other high performance cars in the same price range. This is probably the reason Porsche, Audi, and Mercedes Benz are all allegedly building "High Performance" plug in hybrid or all electric models. Audi has been racing hybrid cars for several years now so I would expect something really cool from them.

Well I guess I based it on the number of people I see and know whom I see driving those cars compared to the Model S, I would consider a CLS63 AMG 4Matic an awesome car and comparable to the P85D but not a common model. After reviewing AMG offerings I think TESLA needs to make the S into a P85D Wagon, now that would be awesome.

So the Model S is pulling about 16% marketshare in this segment. If the Model X pulls the same among midsize to large luxury SUVs, then we're looking at about 100k annual sales in the US.

Oh, that's good. There's a lot more room for the Model S to run. Thanks.

So Tesla sold more MS than BMW sold of Series 6 & 7 combined, yet BMW still get called pioneers while pratting about with PHEVs like the i3 and i8 claiming thats what the market wants - hmmmm.