The New RAV4 EV

[vfx]

... an awful lot of former Prius drivers are now moving to BEVs like the Leaf, ... so Toyota might as well get in on the action. ....

Great point.

Why not keep you customers with you brand? The numbers of Leaf people who have never bought a Nissan before are pretty high.

[dpeilow]

Be careful about invoking any variation on the devil argument. You know all about the tradeoffs. Don't let your enthusiasm blind you.

Well, the mark 1 RAV4 EV had a range of >100 miles and that is still the case with a '99 model I drove recently. That was with a 27 kWh pack.

A 2000 CARB report put NIMH costs at $350 / kWh or $250 in bulk plus $1200 ($600 bulk) fixed pack cost.

So back then a pack could have cost $7350 or 38% premium on an equivalent gas car.


Have we moved forward? The new RAV4 is reported to have a 37 kWh pack for similar range. Model S pack costs seem to be $500 / kWh. (Perhaps they should put the current car on a diet and wait 2 years for the NIMH patent.) That works out at 64% over the equivalent gas model.


Nevertheless in 1999 the price of gas was $1/gallon. Now it's what? $4? US inflation since 1999 was 35.8% but gas went up nearly ten times that...

So taking average mileage, in 1999 it would have taken 14.7 years' worth of gas to match the cost of the battery. That was too much to swallow. In 2011 dollars it would take 8 years' worth of gas to reach the premium for battery in the new model. If they were selling the old model today it would be 4 years.

It doesn't seem too much of a stretch to imagine that a finance model could be offered to flatten out the upfront cost. They could even take the ten year view and make a profit. Perhaps Toyota's accountants need to work on that. Renault's are.

[EVNow]

Well, the mark 1 RAV4 EV had a range of >100 miles and that is still the case with a '99 model I drove recently. That was with a 27 kWh pack.

A 2000 CARB report put NIMH costs at $350 / kWh or $250 in bulk plus $1200 ($600 bulk) fixed pack cost.

So back then a pack could have cost $7350 or 38% premium on an equivalent gas car
....
It doesn't seem too much of a stretch to imagine that a finance model could be offered to flatten out the upfront cost. They could even take the ten year view and make a profit.

Interesting. Given the $7,500 tax credit in the US - the battery premium seems to be completely absorbed by fed govt. So, OEMs should be able to price the car $10k above the ICE equivalent and sell it in good numbers to break-even.

BTW, S can't really go with NiMH even at $350/kWh since the energy density is still very poor.

[dpeilow]

BTW, S can't really go with NiMH even at $350/kWh since the energy density is still very poor.

But IIRC it makes up for it a bit by not needing the buffers for pack longevity.

[EVNow]

But IIRC it makes up for it a bit by not needing the buffers for pack longevity.

No - you still need the buffers. Prius uses a small portion for eg. Not sure how much the old RAV4EV used.

Nickel-based Batteries Information – Battery University

Limited service life; deep discharge reduces service life

In anycase, the Cobalt battery Tesla uses are perhaps double the specific energy of NiMH (170 hw/kg vs 90 wh/kg).

ps :

[jcstp]

If I understood well Toyota pays TESLA for developing the RAV EV?
So the only way they can recuperate a bit of this cost is by selling some.

If I understand well, TESLA builds the whole drivetrain and batteries, and Toyota incorporates them in their RAV factory.
So Toyota has nearly no risk in building them!
If they build 10, it's ok, if they build 1000 it's better!

So Toyota can play "wait-and-see" how many they will sell!

[VolkerP]

Toyota pays Tesla for the development cost (a fixed amount). Tesla invests in a drivetrain production line (again, fixed cost). Toyota closed a contract with Tesla for a certain number of drivetrains to buy, reported as a nearly $100m deal in shareholder report Q3/2011. I guess they specify a fixed number of drivetrains - no need to adjust for market demand since Toyota aims to sell just enough cars to meet California CAFE specs. So it's all set in stone for the time being.

[Norbert]

So it's all set in stone for the time being.

However there has been talk about the possibility of a much larger contract with Toyota in the future (IIRC the order of magnitude of $1billion, though it wasn't said whether those would be about the RAV4, and we don't know if that information is still current).

[AnOutsider]

Will Electric SUVs Save the Planet?

Tesla will also be providing electric powertrains for the all-electric Toyota RAV4, which is scheduled to come out later this year, followed by an electric Scion iQ City. The 2013 electric RAV4 will be built in Woodstock, Ontario. It is expected to have a 100 mile cruising range on a full battery charge. It was designed to accommodate the new electric powertrain, so no cargo space is sacrificed to make room for the batteries.

First I remember hearing about the Scion bit.

[Robert.Boston]

Will Electric SUVs Save the Planet?

I wish I knew what market research is showing that 100 miles of nominal cruising range is the sweet spot. We collectively seem to think that that's too short -- not a lot too short, but light.