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Model X discussed in Q4 2014 Shareholder Letter (latest timing)

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http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/Q4'14 Shareholder Letter

Model X to begin shipping in six months

...we entered 2015with over 10,000 orders for Model S andalmost 20,000 reservations for Model X.

Model X development remains on plan for initial customerdeliveries starting in Q3. Over 30 Beta Model X vehicles havebeen built and are undergoing extensive testing. The results ofinitial Beta phase crash testing have given us confidence thatModel X will live up to the very high safety standard set by Model S. In March, we will start building and testing a small fleet ofRelease Candidate Model X vehicles that will be very close to the final production-intent design. Finally, since Model S andModel X will share the same dual motor powertrain, the introduction of All-Wheel Drive Dual Motor Model S helps reduce someof the risk that would otherwise have been associated with the launch and production ramp of Model X.
 
I misread that thread title as saying the latest timing suggested Q4 deliveries.

Glad to see a confirmation of actual deliveries in 6 months, as folks here were debating whether 'launch in Q3' signified a launch event or actual deliveries. This confirms the Hello Kitty X should be delivered to Bonnie in August.
 
"in six months" = August

Color me impressed... assuming no more delays.

One would hope that with a couplefew dozen betas being 'extensively tested' as of when this letter was drafted, Tesla is confident in the timeline they are giving. Actual Model X cars are being tested, and the actual powertrain is already in customer (P85D) cars. Granted, delays are always possible. But I would read this estimate as a much firmer target than what we've had in the past, as the product tangibly exists.
 
from earnings call: "We are not going to show it until it is ready to be delivered"

Place your order and prepare to be surprised!

mystery-box1.png
 
Argh. So if they are shipping in August, they might want people to start picking options about, say, May?

Dang, that will be too late. If the X design suits a particular need - well, a more of a desire my wife has (no, this is not related to the "breaking in" thread) then we'll want an X. But if it doesn't, we won't - and I could get a ~$10k discount by ordering another S before the sales tax waiver in my state expires on July 1. But it looks like they won't reveal the X until it's too late for me to make that decision. Dang.

Oh well, talk about a first-world problem...which Tesla will I buy next. (Once when my wife complained about something her students were doing, they teased her back and asked if she had a hard time picking which Tesla to drive to work that day).
 
So he has confirmed the X will use the same drive train as the P85D. My guess is the tow rating on it will be low maybe 3,000 pounds rather than class leading like was originally promised. I realize it will have plenty of power, but class leading to me means comparable to the Porsche Cayenne at 7,700 pounds. Unless the axles, hubs, cv's and gear drive are so overbuilt in the S that it is not a problem.
 
Other tidbits from the earnings call I haven't seen posted yet...

1. Huge capital expenditures currently being made for production expansion and tooling for MX.
2. Promised investors positive cash flow maybe in Q3 but certainly in Q4 even after taking capital expenses into account, per MX contribution to cash flow.
3. After initial ramp up of MX production this summer, goal is to produce 800 MX's per week in Q4, barring unforeseen setbacks.
4. The engineering for the row 2 highly sculpted seats was actually more challenging than the falcon doors! (could this mean that the row 2 seats are powered to go for and aft and also 90 degrees out so with the falcon doors, you sit down and it turns 90 degrees?)
 
So he has confirmed the X will use the same drive train as the P85D. My guess is the tow rating on it will be low maybe 3,000 pounds rather than class leading like was originally promised. I realize it will have plenty of power, but class leading to me means comparable to the Porsche Cayenne at 7,700 pounds. Unless the axles, hubs, cv's and gear drive are so overbuilt in the S that it is not a problem.

It could be that they are overbuilt. If the car has tow/sport/insane. The tow mode could be reduced power to allow for the extra stresses on the drivetrain.

Think about how strongly it has to be built now to hurl a car that heavy down the road in just over 3 seconds and not leave drive pieces lying behind.
 
It could be that they are overbuilt. If the car has tow/sport/insane. The tow mode could be reduced power to allow for the extra stresses on the drivetrain.

Think about how strongly it has to be built now to hurl a car that heavy down the road in just over 3 seconds and not leave drive pieces lying behind.

Hmmm. I wonder if they will have a sensor in the tow hitch to prevent people from stomping on the accelerator in the Model X in insane mode leaving pieces of the trailer lying on the road...
 
But if it doesn't, we won't - and I could get a ~$10k discount by ordering another S before the sales tax waiver in my state expires on July 1. But it looks like they won't reveal the X until it's too late for me to make that decision. Dang.

Just as my state considers introducing a tax waiver as of July 1st! I've never been (potentially) happier about Model X delays! :-D