Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

Ingenieur · Feb 5, 2015

Hello guys,

how many of you heard of company called Atieva ?

BAIC acquires stake
Aritcle

Leshi acquires stake
Chinese Internet Company Leshi To Expand Into Electric Cars - Forbes

Check the reviews at Glassdoor:
http://www.glassdoor.de/Bewertungen...305.htm?sort.sortType=RD&sort.ascending=false

The company is paranoid about avoiding any publicity, its almost impossible to get info on its tech.

Beside QuantumScape this is biggest threat, but unlike former, their tech is apparently ready for 2016 production.

I will not go into detail (as im not sure i understand what i was told), but its a lot like Tesla but different, its using kind two tiered battery, bigger cheaper battery and smaller more expensive high performance one, which can be quickly discharged and charged (from slower battery) to provide energy even for high KWH motors. The advantage over Tesla is no loss of power from overheating (or much less). This will also enable to use battery types previosly not useable for cars.

My German industry friend thinks this could disrupt whole high performance ICE business like Quartz watches killed the Mechanical ones, being more precise at 5% of the cost.

Imagine seeing cars with P85D performance for 40-50k $.

Neither me nor my friends are Electroengineers so i tried to explain it in a way i understood.

Apparently Audi R8 Etron that will be shown in Geneva next month is somehow related to this tech, i dont know if its still the case with new chinese owners and QuantumScape investment

TEG · Feb 5, 2015

Using power dense cells for a "front end" and energy dense cells for the main storage "back end" is not a new or secret idea.
Neither is using Super/UltraCapacitors for the "front end" with lower power cells feeding them.

I think Tesla is just as capable as the other companies of doing such a thing if they see the business case.

Zextraterrestrial · Feb 5, 2015

pretty sure Tesla has some 2 stage battery designs too

here is one http://www.freshpatents.com/-dt20130725ptan20130187591.php

uselesslogin · Feb 5, 2015

It is hard to believe they are a threat in the short term but if their technology turns out to be the real deal then they may give Tesla someone to compete against. Still, until they start building a gigafactory they will be behind. It would take them some years to catch up.

rolosrevenge · Feb 5, 2015

Why would this be a threat to Tesla? As long as Tesla continues to make great, compelling, fun cars that happen to be electric, they'll be around. The market for cars is huge. Everyone thinks that there are only so many who are willing to drive electric, the problem is that there aren't very many types of electrics. Tesla made a competitive, full sized premium sports sedan. It competes with others in that segment such as the M5 and the A8. A new electric car, if it doesn't fall in that segment, is not a "threat" to the Model S or to Tesla. Quite the contrary, other cars in different segments get more people driving electric which improves the infrastructure for the Tesla drivers.

stopcrazypp · Feb 5, 2015

I don't think the threat to Tesla going forward will be those focusing on high power batteries, but rather it will be mainly based on $/kWh as Tesla is developing Model 3.

The two tiered approach (which Tesla also has patents on, as pointed out) will be useful for metal-air batteries (with lower cycle life and power density), however such batteries have not yet proven to be leading to cheaper costs in terms of $/kWh.

uselesslogin · Feb 5, 2015

For the curious also job postings:
atieva | careers

$131 million in 3 rounds of funding. The most recent being $100 million.
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/atieva

Anyway it is hard to see how they could be very far along with only $131 million but who knows.

-- edit --
Also apparently 50-149 people. If they have something production ready for 2016 they would have to be working with someone else. A part of me really wants them to be something real but another part of me really doubts it. And I guess I go with I don't think they are a threat even if they are production ready. It would be nice for Tesla to have some competition and electric cars will certainly go mainstream faster if there are 2 players.

jerry33 · Feb 5, 2015

Sounds like another "battery of the week" to me.

roblab · Feb 5, 2015

jerry33 said:
Sounds like another "battery of the week" to me.

As Tesla says, "send us a working model along with costs and ramp up statistics. Then we'll talk". Until then, it's just smoke.

uselesslogin · Feb 5, 2015

OK a collection of articles for everyone. Sounds like the first target will be the Chinese market. Leshi, BAIC, and Atieva seem to all be working on the car with greater than 400km range and cheaper than a Tesla. The Seeking Alpha article actually quotes this about Leshi: "The revenue stream from Leshi's EV will be in the form of mobile ads, LBS, O2O and telematic services, which are high margin and recurring." Basically the idea is sell the car at cost make money on the ads. The ads! So about as threatening to Tesla as Xiaomi is to Apple at this point.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2749205-leshi-is-moving-into-electric-vehicles-negative-implication-for-tesla
China Internet Company Seeks License to Make Electric Car - Bloomberg Business
Leshi Plans To Build Electric Cars
LeTV plots its foray into the auto world with electric car - Headlines, features, photo and videos from ecns.cn|china|news|chinanews|ecns|cns
Leshi kicks off super electric car project_Xinhua Finance Agency
China's Leshi Eyes Connected Electric Car - Forbes

Auzie · Feb 5, 2015

Ingenieur said:
Hello guys,
Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

Currently, there are a number of small threats to Tesla business that we have certainty and knowledge of. Any small threat may grow to become a large threat in the future.

We wish to estimate the likelihood of a small threat growing into a large one. There is a large amount of uncertainty inherent in making such predictions. Complex macroeconomic, political, social and business processes that generate these small threats may not be fundamentally different from those that generate one large threat in the future.

Predicting how numerous factors mentioned above will interplay in a complex system to produce a large threat comes down to seeing now something that is not visible yet. I find that contradictory.

In summary, we can only guess.:wink:

Robert.Boston · Feb 6, 2015

Keep in mind that Tesla produces automobiles. It already has a LOT of competition from well-established companies with great technologies and strong name brands. Its biggest business obstacle is widespread acceptance of its car's fuel. The more companies there are that also use this fuel in their automobiles, the more widespread will be the acceptance, allowing Tesla to sell more cars.

No one talks about a market for "diesel cars," despite the fact that there are fundamental differences in the drivetrains between diesel and gasoline cars. I'm not quite sure why so many people think that using electricity instead of petroleum somehow creates a completely different, unrelated market. People cross-shop the Model S and ICE sedans all the time.

Johan · Feb 6, 2015

Tesla finds itself surrounded by electric-car competition - MarketWatch

Journalism at it's finest: Most underestimated threat could be "Sunswift’s eVe, produced by Australian university students as a “demonstrator-of-feasibility.” (And here’s another interesting concept.) The vehicle set a world record for fastest average speed (more than 60 mph) over 310 miles on a single battery charge. Compared with eVe, Tesla’s Model S can reach “only” 265 miles. The eVe can be charged by using a regular wall outlet or an array of solar panels located on its roof and hood. The vehicle weighs only 700 pounds, which is less than the Model S’s battery. Still, it’s worth noting that compared with Tesla, the eVe is a totally stripped down, with enough room for only two people."

stopcrazypp · Feb 6, 2015

Johan said:
Tesla finds itself surrounded by electric-car competition - MarketWatch

Journalism at it's finest: Most underestimated threat could be "Sunswift’s eVe, produced by Australian university students as a “demonstrator-of-feasibility.” (And here’s another interesting concept.) The vehicle set a world record for fastest average speed (more than 60 mph) over 310 miles on a single battery charge. Compared with eVe, Tesla’s Model S can reach “only” 265 miles. The eVe can be charged by using a regular wall outlet or an array of solar panels located on its roof and hood. The vehicle weighs only 700 pounds, which is less than the Model S’s battery. Still, it’s worth noting that compared with Tesla, the eVe is a totally stripped down, with enough room for only two people."

If they want to compare to two seaters, the "400 mile" upgraded Roadster will probably easily smash their record. And the Sunswift is not road legal yet (although they are working on making it road legal, they say it will add a lot more weight to the vehicle).

Johan · Feb 6, 2015

stopcrazypp said:
If they want to compare to two seaters, the "400 mile" upgraded Roadster will probably easily smash their record. And the Sunswift is not road legal yet (although they are working on making it road legal, they say it will add a lot more weight to the vehicle).

... But surely it's very close to going in to volume production, right? (I.e. they might build a second one).

Auzie · Feb 6, 2015

Johan said:
... But surely it's very close to going in to volume production, right? (I.e. they might build a second one).

If it is built in Australia I feel reassured that this threat will simply die off as the labour cost will kill it:biggrin:

austinEV · Feb 6, 2015

Guys in my spare time I designed a Tesla Killer. It gets 500 miles per charge, seats 12, costs $12k, goes zero to 60 in 3.0s, charges in 60s or with the integrated solar panel. It was SO EASY to do to. Sell your stock, Tesla is going down tomorrow.

Gerasimental · Feb 6, 2015

austinEV said:
Guys in my spare time I designed a Tesla Killer. It gets 500 miles per charge, seats 12, costs $12k, goes zero to 60 in 3.0s, charges in 60s or with the integrated solar panel. It was SO EASY to do to. Sell your stock, Tesla is going down tomorrow.

'This is the result of some incredible technology, all of which is proprietary, so I can't tell you anything about it. BUT IT WORKS'

Skotty · Feb 6, 2015

The most underestimated threat to Tesla is probably the San Andreas Fault.

jhm · Feb 6, 2015

Johan said:
Tesla finds itself surrounded by electric-car competition - MarketWatch

Journalism at it's finest: Most underestimated threat could be "Sunswift’s eVe, produced by Australian university students as a “demonstrator-of-feasibility.” (And here’s another interesting concept.) The vehicle set a world record for fastest average speed (more than 60 mph) over 310 miles on a single battery charge. Compared with eVe, Tesla’s Model S can reach “only” 265 miles. The eVe can be charged by using a regular wall outlet or an array of solar panels located on its roof and hood. The vehicle weighs only 700 pounds, which is less than the Model S’s battery. Still, it’s worth noting that compared with Tesla, the eVe is a totally stripped down, with enough room for only two people."

Hey, Tesla is looking to hire talent. Maybe the next JB is university student in Australia.

Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

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