Just wanted to start this thread up when I saw the initial January EV sales numbers. Here they are:
In both 2014 (at bottom) and 2013, the Model S ranked 3rd behind the Leaf and Volt in US sales. I think there are 3 factors at work that will almost certainly get the MS into the top two, and possibly the top spot. Here they are:
1. The 2015 Volt sales will be greatly diminished due to the upcoming 2016 Volt that has been announced. I think based solely on this, the MS ends up beating the Volt in 2015.
2. While January is typically slow for the Leaf, this January was even slower than usual. They sold just 1,070 versus a year ago 1,252. I think some of this can be attributed to lower gas prices. And there is supposed to be a larger battery coming around in mid-2016, which should also start eating into sales like is happening to the Volt now. Lower gas prices should erode Leaf sales more than Model S sales, because the Leaf is more likely being purchased by people who are looking to save money versus a gas car.
3. The latter half of 2014 saw much of the Model S output being used to fill the overseas pipeline, and also overseas deliveries. Now that the pipeline is essentially filled, overseas demand will dictate the delivery of US versus foreign cars. Couple this with increased MS production, and it seems quite likely that the MS US sales go significantly higher this year. Per the website where this is from, 2013 MS US sales were 17,650 and 2014 was 17,300, hence all the stories about "decreasing demand" that were coming out when Tesla started filling up the overseas pipeline.
Given all the attention Tesla gets from the various sites, won't it be interesting if the new meme in EV land is that the Tesla Model is looking to be the best selling EV in the US in 2015?
RT
In both 2014 (at bottom) and 2013, the Model S ranked 3rd behind the Leaf and Volt in US sales. I think there are 3 factors at work that will almost certainly get the MS into the top two, and possibly the top spot. Here they are:
1. The 2015 Volt sales will be greatly diminished due to the upcoming 2016 Volt that has been announced. I think based solely on this, the MS ends up beating the Volt in 2015.
2. While January is typically slow for the Leaf, this January was even slower than usual. They sold just 1,070 versus a year ago 1,252. I think some of this can be attributed to lower gas prices. And there is supposed to be a larger battery coming around in mid-2016, which should also start eating into sales like is happening to the Volt now. Lower gas prices should erode Leaf sales more than Model S sales, because the Leaf is more likely being purchased by people who are looking to save money versus a gas car.
3. The latter half of 2014 saw much of the Model S output being used to fill the overseas pipeline, and also overseas deliveries. Now that the pipeline is essentially filled, overseas demand will dictate the delivery of US versus foreign cars. Couple this with increased MS production, and it seems quite likely that the MS US sales go significantly higher this year. Per the website where this is from, 2013 MS US sales were 17,650 and 2014 was 17,300, hence all the stories about "decreasing demand" that were coming out when Tesla started filling up the overseas pipeline.
Given all the attention Tesla gets from the various sites, won't it be interesting if the new meme in EV land is that the Tesla Model is looking to be the best selling EV in the US in 2015?
RT
