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Mid 2012

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Agreed. But I think today's announcement makes 2012 much more realistic than starting from scratch in Downey. Sure the powertrain area will need to be cleared out but the chassis, body, paint, interior, suspension, etc etc divisions of NUMMI are ready to go.
 
3 years of waiting is a long time for a car.

You're getting me scared there! You mean two :).

Agreed. But I think today's announcement makes 2012 much more realistic than starting from scratch in Downey. Sure the powertrain area will need to be cleared out but the chassis, body, paint, interior, suspension, etc etc divisions of NUMMI are ready to go.

Right on, Kipernicus. This makes their production timeline much more realistic than starting from scratch in Downey...and takes a lot of potential "delaying factors" out of the equation.
 
You're getting me scared there! You mean two :).
Sorry. I meant from when I put the deposit down to the expected delivery date.
It's funny though. People at work have been asking me since last summer "How much longer till it arrives?" and for the last 8 months I've been saying "2 years". Not I guess it is 2 years.
Seriously starting to consider that Roadster lease for Model S reservation holders now though.
 
tdelta, not sure anyone mentioned design or MB? I think they're now at the part where they have to actually retool a factory, build, test, rebuild, crash test, rebuild, perfect and release a car. It takes time and they're just now getting the physical ball rolling (though I'm sure they've been doing a lot of design and planning)
 
Hey AnOutsider and my fellow club memebers,

If you were to speculate, how long do you think it would take to finalize the "S" design, retool the hot new factory, build EPs, build crash test cars, get NTHSA approvals, build the final prototypes and then begin building the prod version of the "S"??

Is that truly a two year proposition or can the porcess be streamlined?
 
If you were to speculate, how long do you think it would take to finalize the "S" design, retool the hot new factory, build EPs, build crash test cars, get NTHSA approvals, build the final prototypes and then begin building the prod version of the "S"??

Is that truly a two year proposition or can the process be streamlined?
tdelta makes a good point. Given that NUMMI was used to build vehicles, there must be a certain percentage of the facility that can be used "as is".

Also, it has been 14 months since Model S was introduced. Certainly, a lot of development has already been done and perhaps finalized. Not certain about crash testing because that may require some vehicles be tested as they come off the assembly line.
 
I was in the Tesla store in South Florida yesterday, and the salesman (George -- super nice guy) said that they'd gotten a company-wide e-mail yesterday that said they were moving the timeline back up to late 2011 for the first Model S's to come rolling off the lot. Has anyone else heard this, or seen this e-mail? I was very excited when he said this because it seemed like the timeline was slowly moving later and later into 2012, and every indication publicly was that the first cars would come out in 2012. If they can get some of the Signature Editions out the door in 2011, they should be able to get through the Rs and into the Ps in first quarter of 2012.
 
I was in the Tesla store in South Florida yesterday, and the salesman (George -- super nice guy) said that they'd gotten a company-wide e-mail yesterday that said they were moving the timeline back up to late 2011 for the first Model S's to come rolling off the lot. Has anyone else heard this, or seen this e-mail? I was very excited when he said this because it seemed like the timeline was slowly moving later and later into 2012, and every indication publicly was that the first cars would come out in 2012. If they can get some of the Signature Editions out the door in 2011, they should be able to get through the Rs and into the Ps in first quarter of 2012.

If that becomes the case that's great news (not that I'm doubting your source of course). With all of the other things Tesla has become involved with (Rav4 EV) I was a little worried that Model S would be set back a little bit.
 
What is the mid-Dec 2011 milestone? First car off the assembly line? Something else?

According to the guy at the store that I spoke to, the plan is to have the cars rolling off the assembly line in the last quarter of 2011, as per the original Model S planned rollout. I didn't ask to see the e-mail (maybe I should have!), but he said that this was a "moving up" of the timeline, which as discussed on this thread had seemed to move back to mid-2012. It seems that with the selection of NUMMI and maybe some support from Toyota, they're optimistic about moving the timetable back to where it was originally.

Again, if anyone works at TM or knows someone who works at TM, it would be great to confirm the contents of the e-mail. Apparently, it was a company-wide e-mail that was sent on Wednesday, and he said it's pretty rare that Elon sends company-wide e-mails, so it would have been noticeable to any employee.
 
What is the mid-Dec 2011 milestone? First car off the assembly line? Something else?
I don't know. The guy said "everything up and running". You'll have to use your imagination until someone feels it's safe to give us more to imagine. You would think TMC might give us that part, anyway, unless they are more worried about not meeting deadlines for unforseen reasons.
 
There is also the chance the "first production" car off the line would be largely a show like when they delivered Elon's car, P1. The next ca Martin's was much later and even longer till the cars started coming off the line.

PS, saw P1 at the LA store this week. Looked like someone had driven it under a rear bumper.