Driving in the future, imagine lots of Tesla-like cars

TomL · Jan 1, 2015

Today, driving a MS we can pass other cars on the freeway at will. It's like they're all standing still compared to the instant acceleration and passing ability of the MS. Even if we use only moderate (but immediate) acceleration, MS can move around other cars very quickly compared to ICE vehicles passing each other.

Now imagine sometime in the future, where 90% of the cars have similar performance to today's MS. Everyone's able to accelerate and pass very quickly. Today a quick glance in my blind spot can confirm that I'm free to make a lane change, but if 90% of the cars around me are able to zip into that space almost instantly, has freeway driving in this scenario added some new risks? I'm thinking this could be rather dangerous, especially when you consider some percentage of those drivers are careless or distracted or might actually "floor it" just for fun or to make a really quick pass. Today, vehicle speeds on the freeway are relatively constant compared to each other, but if everyone had MS capabilities, this would no longer be true.

Does this mean autopilot (perhaps even allowing it to override my desired lane change) becomes a necessity in such a future?

bxr140 · Jan 1, 2015

The situation you describe has been happening since the automobile was invented. No need to panic.

mikeash · Jan 2, 2015

Most drivers don't approach the performance limits of their cars, no matter what they drive. The end stop on the accelerator remains a theoretical concept. For most, speed and acceleration are limited by the driver's willingness to use them, not the car's ability to produce them. I wouldn't worry about it.

artsci · Jan 3, 2015

mikeash said:
Most drivers don't approach the performance limits of their cars, no matter what they drive. The end stop on the accelerator remains a theoretical concept. For most, speed and acceleration are limited by the driver's willingness to use them, not the car's ability to produce them. I wouldn't worry about it.

Couldn't agree more. When I'm trailing high performance cars like BMW and Mercedes I'm often amazed that their drivers are so timid. Often there's way too much use of the brakes, turns are approached with way too much caution, the the capabilities of the car are just not realized. They may as well be driving Yugos

bevguy · Jan 3, 2015

I am not a race car driver, nobody is paying me to test the capabilities of my car.
I prefer to arrive at my destination in one piece, having seen even the best drivers, of grand prix race cars, sipn out and otherwise lose control of their cars.

So I drive cautiously , the outer limits of performance are there for unanticipated emergencies.

MikeC · Jan 3, 2015

I think the OP has a good point, as I frequently need to compensate for other drivers who don't realize that my car can quickly get to a spot that they don't expect it to. I think it will be okay, though, because not everyone will have a high end EV like a Model S. And the change will happen so slowly that people will have the chance to adjust their driving and expectations as EVs slowly replace ICEs over the next couple decades.

wycolo · Jan 3, 2015

artsci said:
When I'm trailing high performance cars like BMW and Mercedes I'm often amazed that their drivers are so timid. . . They may as well be driving Yugos

They're in it for the snazz, and mindful of their deductible.
--

Asphalt&Battery · Jan 3, 2015

More pedestrians will get hit by EVs as they don't hear them coming. In the future, future, you would see less gas stations on the side of the road. Less stains on roadways, since the only fluids EVs drip is air conditioning condensation. Less mom and pop lube/tire places due to less maintenance. Likewise, no more greasy mechanics. The roadways would be a lot quieter as well. You'll see municipality vehicles become electric as governments realize the benefits.

robby · Jan 3, 2015

TomL said:
Now imagine sometime in the future, where 90% of the cars have similar performance to today's MS. Everyone's able to accelerate and pass very quickly. Today a quick glance in my blind spot can confirm that I'm free to make a lane change, but if 90% of the cars around me are able to zip into that space almost instantly, has freeway driving in this scenario added some new risks?

I expect this will make things safer because the lulling factor will go away. Instead of assuming they can shift lanes on a whim and be safe 90% of the time, most people will know they can't and check carefully 100% of the time.

caddieo · Jan 3, 2015

artsci said:
Couldn't agree more. When I'm trailing high performance cars like BMW and Mercedes I'm often amazed that their drivers are so timid. Often there's way too much use of the brakes, turns are approached with way too much caution, .........

.........and often with a very early apex. :crying:

roblab · Jan 3, 2015

Asphalt&Battery said:
More pedestrians will get hit by EVs as they don't hear them coming.

You think pedestrians get hit because they don't hear the cars? In my county, people get hit because they step out in front of moving cars, without looking both ways, or even one way, or listening, or thinking. Or they are walking along the side of the road, facing away from traffic, with both ears stopped with ear buds. They cross in mid block in town. They step into crosswalks and walk, thinking those little white paint lines will protect them. And they are hit with are ICE cars with engines running, not EVs. Often the other noises on the street corner are louder than the traffic. At speed, EVs are as noisy as many ICE cars due to tire noise. In a parking lot, where many pedestrians are surprised by slowly moving vehicles, EVs are sometimes quieter, but since the pedestrians are talking and otherwise *not paying attention* they think the car sneaked up on them. Some people have had pedestrians walk right into the side of their stopped car while the car waits at a signal to turn right.

Mostly the average person THINKS that since an EV doesn't make Vruuum noises, they MIGHT get hit by one, so, it follows, EVs could kill you.

Look it up. Please don't repeat an urban legend.

AmpedUP · Jan 3, 2015

I think the number of quickly accelerating EVs on the road will continue a trend that has been going on for years. At 50, I find myself becoming more and more defensive when driving, and I don't think it's because my reaction times or eyesight were that much better 25 years ago. In the U.S., I think a combination of three things have made driving much more challenging today: 1) Driver's education has been privatized as high school budgets have been cut. 2) Speed limits on highways have increased. 3) The "sport" version of most any make of automobile made today can meet or beat a 1981 Ferrari Dino on the road.

jerry33 · Jan 4, 2015

Asphalt&Battery said:
More pedestrians will get hit by EVs as they don't hear them coming.

I don't buy that for even a second. No pedestrian actually uses their ears to check--assuming they could even hear a properly mufflered car over the ambient noise level--and few use their eyes. At any speed greater than 10 mph, the tire noise is very audible and more audible than the engine in ICE vehicles with a decent muffler. Basically what happens is that when little Johnny runs into the street and gets hit by a Mercedes it's, "Dumb kid didn't look", but if he gets hit by an EV or a Prius it's, "The kid couldn't hear anything, it's the car's fault". Garbage reasoning produces garbage results.

- - - Updated - - -

AmpedUP said:
1) Driver's education has been privatized as high school budgets have been cut. 2) Speed limits on highways have increased. 3) The "sport" version of most any make of automobile made today can meet or beat a 1981 Ferrari Dino on the road.

I agree with two and three. Driver education when I went to high school was pretty much useless, not that privatizing it has done anything to really improve the quality. The only real driver education is found at the sports car clubs. Getting real practice involving the limitations of the car and how to deal with emergency situations is far more important than seeing a couple of films.

dejavo0 · Jan 4, 2015

Why worry about this when the cars will be driving themselves

bluenation · Jan 5, 2015

roblab said:
You think pedestrians get hit because they don't hear the cars? In my county, people get hit because they step out in front of moving cars, without looking both ways, or even one way, or listening, or thinking. Or they are walking along the side of the road, facing away from traffic, with both ears stopped with ear buds. They cross in mid block in town. They step into crosswalks and walk, thinking those little white paint lines will protect them. And they are hit with are ICE cars with engines running, not EVs. Often the other noises on the street corner are louder than the traffic. At speed, EVs are as noisy as many ICE cars due to tire noise. In a parking lot, where many pedestrians are surprised by slowly moving vehicles, EVs are sometimes quieter, but since the pedestrians are talking and otherwise *not paying attention* they think the car sneaked up on them. Some people have had pedestrians walk right into the side of their stopped car while the car waits at a signal to turn right.

Mostly the average person THINKS that since an EV doesn't make Vruuum noises, they MIGHT get hit by one, so, it follows, EVs could kill you.

Look it up. Please don't repeat an urban legend.

sorry but i gotta call this bs out.

you are talking about only one type of pedestrian casualties: fully distracted.

there have been plenty of accounts across EV owners, TMC included, where they surprised a fully aware, responsible pedestrian. example , some kid in a bycicle was surprised when an EV pulled next to them, or a pedestrian at cross walk was approached from behind at an angle by a left turner..

when im a pedestrian, fully aware of my surroundings, i rely more than my eyes to sense cars. i rely also on my ears. engine noise is far more clear and directionally obvious than tires - which btw, usually dont make barely any sound at low speeds.

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Driving in the future, imagine lots of Tesla-like cars

TomL

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bxr140

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mikeash

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artsci

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