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A brief history of Climate Science

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nwdiver

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2013
9,409
14,631
United States
I don't think the history of climate science is well known at all... I know most of my co-workers believe that the theory has evolved a lot over the years to fit new observations and that CO2 is blamed because CO2 rising has been linked to rising temperatures. This could not be further from the truth. The theory really hasn't changed at all in nearly 200 years and CO2/temperature correlation succeeded the theory...

1800
Sir William Hershel discovers IR light

1824
Joseph Fourier discovers the 'greenhouse effect'

1896
Svante Arrhenius calculates climate sensitivity; Doubling of CO2 could cause global average temperatures to rise ~5F... however due to the low CO2 emissions in 1896 and assumed natural absorption this is estimated to take thousands of years.

1953
Charles Keeling discovers that CO2 levels are rising at an alarming rate; this destroys the existing hypothesis that natural sinks would absorb fossil fuel emissions and concentrations would remain static.

1982
JASON advisory group submits report on Increasing CO2 levels to the Reagan Administration. When informed that significant adverse effects can be expected in ~40 years Administration response is, "Get back to us in 40 years"

The theory has not changed; The physics are irrefutable; The threat is VERY real

We are the first generation to feel the effects of AGW and the last that can prevent its worst effects... I have no doubt that history will judge our generation VERY VERY harshly. Only Morons and Monsters use fossil fuels where alternatives exist.