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Prediction Competition for 2015

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It seems like there is some interest for guessing the delivieries for the coming year, so I'm creating a new prediction competition thread for 2015.

The competition is about guessing how many vehicles Tesla Motors will deliver in 2015. The rules are that a vote is allowed to be cast and/or modified up and until 1 week after the Q4 ER, which is around the middle of February. This is to give everyone a chance to make a guess based on Teslas guidance. I think that worked out well last time based on how hard it turned out to be to predict the results accurately, most of us were way off.
As far as first price goes, it is the honor of victory and being named The Oracle of TMC!

So without further ado, let the voting begin!

Edit 1: Let's only guess total delivered cars and not the share price of TSLA.

Edit 2: No need to segregate model S and X from your guess, just make one guess that includes any vehicle Tesla might deliver.
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Final Entries for 2015 Predictions:
So, here is the complete and final voting list sorted from lowest to higest vote. Best of luck to all!

toto_48313: 44,444

ItsNotAboutTheMoney: 45,000

schonelucht: 47,000

bonaire: 47,690

Lump: 51,888

maoing: 52,800

RobStark: 54,985

Benz: 55,000

Crowded Mind: 55,000

dalalsid: 55,001

hershey101: 55,170

Robert.Boston: 55,825

pGo: 56,000

pz1975: 56,300

SteveG3: 56,315

mrdoubleb: 57,000

ev-enthusiast: 57,200

StapleGun: 57,221

32no: 57,434

sandpiper: 57,442

NannerAirCraft: 57,753

Larken: 58,367

Gerasimental: 58,500

uselesslogin: 59,000

Svetlin: 59,100

Papafox: 59,775

mibaro2: 59,827

chickensevil: 60,000

AudubonB: 60,000

Marknyuzz: 60,500

Gerardf: 61,150

erha: 62,212

GenIIIBuyer: 63,999

Perfectlogic: 64,200

dmckinstry: 65,536

Johan: 67,000

tomas: 69,000

CGH-ON: 73,650

Familial Rhino: 74,293

 
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I would say the 50k Model S guidance is setting the bar super low, as Elon has mentioned himself too as they are at a 1k/week rate already. My guess is 55-60k Model S and 5-10k Model X, for a total of 64200 cars sold.

As for the share price my guess is $345.
 
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Wow, why so many estimates <60k? They are currently producing 1,000 cars/wk so just ramping up to 1,500 cars/wk gradually over the year gets them to 60k. We have been guided to expect an exit at 2,000 cars/wk. I don't see <60k unless Tesla turns out to be demand constrained. Is this just because we estimated too high last year?
 
I was expecting 40K in 2014 because I think 35K guidanc was very conservative from TM based on the growth trajetory from 2013, but it turns out the real delivery well below 35K now and I got hit hard for my leap position . So lowering your expection is the conservative way to save your investment. Who knows if there will have another assembly line expansion issue, model X further delay or even demand might have issue in 2015.

Wow, why so many estimates <60k? They are currently producing 1,000 cars/wk so just ramping up to 1,500 cars/wk gradually over the year gets them to 60k. We have been guided to expect an exit at 2,000 cars/wk. I don't see <60k unless Tesla turns out to be demand constrained. Is this just because we estimated too high last year?
 
Feeling bullish. 62500 deliveries for me.

Expansion into relatively young markets allows for some potential weakening of demand in the US.
On the supply side I agree with others here that a current rate of 1k cars/week now and predicted to exit 2015 at 2k cars/week suggests that 60k for the year should easily be possible even accounting for slowdown while the factory is configured to build S & X and during potential upgrades like the one last month.
 
I'm waiting until the Q4 ER until I put my chip on the table.
+1
It's clear Model S deliveries alone are likely to surpass 50k this year, but the actual start of X high volume production is the real guess here. If they srart production in June and ramp to full volume production by September, that's totally different from starting up in late August and ramping in late q4. We need more data to make an educated guess.
 
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