Trading in P85+ for P85D...give me a nudge!

403portside · Nov 8, 2014

Ok, so I ordered my P85D the night it was announced, thinking that my P85+ would hold its value decently well and that I'd have no trouble selling my car. To recap, my P85+ had a $120K sticker (before credits) and has only 4200 miles and is, without exaggeration, flawless. It's been opti-coated and shows like new, so surely someone would find it appealing at a nice discount to a new factory car. The car is just about a year old.

After many weeks of listing on eBay and other places, price reductions, etc I'm convinced that values have taken a pretty hefty hit. Most buyers are using D pricing as a reference point. After many discussions with Tesla, the best offer I could get from them was $87K. If I take my original car's price, subtract credits and add tax, we are talking about a $33k bath after one year. I think it's reasonable to look at half of this $33K as a 'usage cost' (ie, I drove the car for 12 months, and transportation costs money whether I buy, rent, lease a car, or use uber or taxi everyday) and the other half a true 'hit', or money lost beyond my cost of usage.

I can easily absorb the hit and want the P85D, but would like your opinion. Am I an idiot for doing this? Certainly if I view it through a financial lens, I am. Are others taking similar losses to upgrade?

I guess I'm just looking for 3rd party validation for what I'm about to do

No but seriously, seeing others with similar upgrading experiences would make me feel better.

Thanks for listening.

Vitaman · Nov 8, 2014

First of all, I would do it as it will nag at you daily, that you should be driving the D.
Second, if it makes you feel any better, I will be taking a 90K bath on my 2.5 year old ICE in perfect condition, when I trade it in next month.
And I will turn over the keys willingly and with a glad heart.

403portside · Nov 8, 2014

Wow Vitaman. Which ICE is that? Must be an exotic

Ardie · Nov 8, 2014

No, you're not an idiot.

You just want validation that the product you bought did (and still does) have value.
But automobile depreciation is a harsh fact of life.

You must decide if:
a) you can live with the depreciation hit when you give up your baby for a new baby.
b) the P85-D will be an interim car before the Model X is introduced, and you really want *that* one. If so, then you will have to steel yourself for another round of depreciation loss on the P85-D.
c) you don't really care. You get the car that you want, you can afford it, and life is too short to keep looking in the rear view mirror.

My first knee-jerk reaction would be to ask "why not keep it and get a second Tesla?" but I see you live in San Francisco -- a place where 2-car garages come very dear, indeed.

Okay, there are others out there smarter than me (apparently a *lot*), but with a bit of planning, and if you own a company ("403portside International." It has a nice ring to it), then you can let your company expense or depreciate equipment (i.e. cars) a lot more effectively than we ordinary mortals can. The IRS will never be your friend, but their rules can be useful from time to time.

--Ardie
Its better if you don't use a calculator to analyze actions of the heart.

linkster · Nov 8, 2014

403portside said:
Wow Vitaman. Which ICE is that?

i was wondering the same...

AMN · Nov 8, 2014

A $120k AMG car will lose about the same amount, so Tesla is not an exception. Even though it's a cool and desirable car, it's still a quickly depreciating luxury asset.

We bought an ML63 for $117k, drove it for a year and 8k miles, and traded it for $84k to the same dealer. Why would Tesla be different?

Going from our P85+ to a fully optioned P85D appears to be a $50k exercise. Ouch.
Tesla is still a new kid on the block and enjoys special treatment from its customers but I can only see this happening for a couple more years. $50k... ouch!

They are going to have a marvelous Christmas and Q4 since they will move a lot of high margin cars and hopefully make some money on trade-ins. This may be the first time they will post GAAP profit and their stock will go through the roof.

Enjoy that P85D!

HankLloydRight · Nov 8, 2014

I'll be the contrary voice here. I'd say wait a year and since your P85+ has already taken the depreciation hit, it won't "cost" you as much for the using it another year (or your "usage cost" versus "depreciation" cost ratio will improve)... and then in one year, when Tesla comes out with the Next Best Thing, you can upgrade to that (bigger/better battery?). And if you don't want to upgrade, the cost of today's P85D will be a lot lower than it is now (if you'd consider buying used).

But if you're the type to continually upgrade each year regardless, then just do it.

Krugerrand · Nov 8, 2014

I'll give you what you want: You only live once. What are you waiting for?

Higgs · Nov 8, 2014

i wouldn't do it if i were you. a P85 maybe, but not a new +. no suspension/handling upgrade going from a + to a D. so that's $33k for a little better acceleration and autopilot sensors, most of which aren't even operational right now.

before you heard about the D, did you ever consider your car "not fast enough"? probably not. so you shouldn't now either.

Chuck P85D · Nov 8, 2014

403portside said:
I can easily absorb the hit and want the P85D. Am I an idiot for doing this? Certainly if I view it through a financial lens, I am..

you're kind of contradicting yourself here. if you can "easily absorb" a $33k hit, then it's not a financially idiotic move, is it?

lolachampcar · Nov 8, 2014

Directly from Tesla Engineering when I asked about the handling and feel going from my P+ on coils (better feel than the air) to a PD-
"You will not be disappointed"
You know, these guys know what they are doing and everything they have said in the past has been spot on. I believe them and thus it is + to D for me

breser · Nov 8, 2014

lolachampcar said:
Directly from Tesla Engineering when I asked about the handling and feel going from my P+ on coils (better feel than the air) to a PD-
"You will not be disappointed"
You know, these guys know what they are doing and everything they have said in the past has been spot on. I believe them and thus it is + to D for me

And they're not just saying that to anybody but to you. Someone that effectively reworked the suspension on your vehicle to make it better.

lolachampcar · Nov 8, 2014

Better for me and my tastes (M5 aligned). The impression I got was that they pulled off more of that sportscar M5 handling and feel while still using the exact same air spring with the same spring rate. I absolutely can not wait see for myself.

Six · Nov 8, 2014

lolachampcar said:
Better for me and my tastes (M5 aligned). The impression I got was that they pulled off more of that sportscar M5 handling and feel while still using the exact same air spring with the same spring rate. I absolutely can not wait see for myself.

So you ordered your P85D with air suspension even when they allowed you to switch to coil? If so that is a big leap in faith on your part since your preferred your coil P85+. I hope you are right since my P85D is air suspension.

uselesslogin · Nov 8, 2014

@403portside

You should definitely trade-in. Don't think about the financial implication if you have no trouble affording it. Think of it as charity. You are both donating to the cause of the electrification of transport, the end of foreign energy dependence, and/or helping to stop global warming depending on what your political slant is. But, beyond that you are helping the little people like me who can only afford a Model 3. The more Model S or X cars you buy the better they can make the Model 3 and the faster they can produce more of them.

lolachampcar · Nov 8, 2014

not just yet..... still hoping for definitive feedback from engineering on damper valving for the PD coil compared to the PD air. I have a bit more time as I want a 2015 ViN thus the delay is not holding anything up.

I'm not beyond buying PD air and putting coils on the car or simply re-grooving the coil dampers to achieve the desired ride height. I would like to keep this car for more than 15 months this time and thus want to make sure I have no regrets. That said, I'm sure Tesla will come up with another thing I absolutely must have at which point I'll be back in this boat

ArtInCT · Nov 8, 2014

403portside said:
No but seriously, seeing others with similar upgrading experiences would make me feel better.

Thanks for listening.

Well, I would suggest you run the numbers on the P85D via a two year lease. You seem to put low mileage on the P85+ and would probably
likely do the same low mileage on the P85D.

When you figure out the monthly lease fee and multiply it by 12 and add in the deposit, if you are under $33K (your hit from your first post) then
leasing could be a better approach for you. In that manner, you would be able to get a new S every two or three years....

Also your capital can be working for you in other manners.

Worth looking into and good luck with the new P85D when it arrives...!

randompersonx · Nov 8, 2014

Keep in mind that there will be a big new feature next year, too.

Unless you are comfortable with eating this kind of loss year after year, or feel that you will be able to stomach next year's upgrades (likely a bigger battery, LTE, and improved autopilot sensors), I would wait until next year and at least get a 2 year cycle.

Vitaman · Nov 8, 2014

The 90K loss is on a well optioned Cayenne Turbo.
The sticker was just under 153,000.
Going to try CarMax but both the Porsche Dealership where I bought it and Tesla offered 63,500.

NOLA_Mike · Nov 8, 2014

403portside said:
I can easily absorb the hit and want the P85D, but would like your opinion. Am I an idiot for doing this? Certainly if I view it through a financial lens, I am. Are others taking similar losses to upgrade?

I guess I'm just looking for 3rd party validation for what I'm about to do

No but seriously, seeing others with similar upgrading experiences would make me feel better.

Thanks for listening.

Yes, many of us are doing the same thing you are doing.

You can't look at this as anything you can make financial sense out of. You need to look at it as "what you want to spend your money on". Look at it the same as you would, say, spending a lot of money on an expensive vacation. Some people do that, for me my entertainment money is spent on cars.

Once you start looking at it that way you will quit laboring over your decision.

Trading in P85+ for P85D...give me a nudge!

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