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85D changed from Feb to late Jan, now back to Feb

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This indicates to me that that the estimated delivery notice on one's dashboard may now be driven directly by an intranet feed from the factory. That is, the estimated delivery month can bounce around as the metabolism of the factory ebbs and surges. So luck may not really come into it, so much as "noise" in the algorithm and the underlying fluctuation of the supply/production chain. Just a guess...
 
My date jumped to Feb 2015 from Jan 2015 as well. I called my Delivery Rep and he told me that Feb 2015 is a realistic estimate. He estimated that the car that I confirmed on 10/10/14 would not be built until mid Jan 2015 and delivered until mid to late Feb. 2015.