Model S range increase soon?

Chickenlittle said:

The announced increased range of the roadster battery pack to be released this year makes me wonder how they will do it and why that can't be done with model S? There is no room in the roadster for increased volume of the battery pack ( just ask anyone with the car). The chemistry is different in the two cars but I am not aware of an increased energy density between the batteries. Is anyone aware of this? Are they just going to use the newer chemistry?

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I wouldn't expect any changes to carry over to the S any time soon. There's no need to ramp up production on the Roadster, so there's no compelling reason to wait for the Gigafactory. It makes little sense to retool something now for a marginal increase, but there are things that could be done with a new factory and more autonomy. For example they could rethink the casing on the cells for increasing density and lowering weight, and they may get a marginal to moderate increase in range. But they wouldn't want to lose the isolation they currently have. Even in the general consumer industry, we have things such as D cells for a reason rather than using more AAA cells. They could come up with something more optimal without changing underlying chemistry, but now is not the time. Also, they will be concentrating on the underlying technology rather than looking at things in isolation, so retooling for one change alone might not be worthwhile. If a significant change in engineering and production yields moderate increases in efficiency but won't sell more cars, most companies would see it as a bad decision. But you never can tell with Tesla. Sometimes they simply want to show the world that they can.

In any event, it's not likely to affect current owners, or even future ones if there's a premium put on the price. I'd rather see battery swapping stations at $75 round trip, since it would be far cheaper for a person who does mostly local driving and needs increased range only for occasional trips. If the alternative is spending [your best guess here] on a new battery, it would be hard to come up with a worthwhile figure.

Even at that, Tesla owners have a lukewarm reaction to swapping stations already. But I think that non-owners might see them as a factor for purchasing the car. Until there are three models on the market with no backlog, Tesla will continue to let the car sell itself.

Since the roadster is benefitting from the improved Model S design, I don't think so, as the Model S already has it.

Internally Tesla is said to be achieving about a 7% increase in range every year at the same price. These range increases have not yet materialized in a product yet and I bet within the next year we will see a larger battery pack option for the Model S. The Model S basically has 2010 era battery technology. 7% compounded over 4 years for a 85kwh battery pack yields 111.4 kwh. That's what they could release at the same price point. I would not be surprised if they released a 110kwh Model S next year.

MsElectric said:

Internally Tesla is said to be achieving about a 7% increase in range every year at the same price. These range increases have not yet materialized in a product yet and I bet within the next year we will see a larger battery pack option for the Model S. The Model S basically has 2010 era battery technology. 7% compounded over 4 years for a 85kwh battery pack yields 111.4 kwh. That's what they could release at the same price point. I would not be surprised if they released a 110kwh Model S next year.

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Looks like Tesla achieved an 11% range increase with the addition of a 2nd motor. The battery remains unchanged. You don't need any evolution in battery technology to increase range - you improve the efficiency of the rest of the system.

I'm willing to bet there won't be any change in range on the S based on battery changes. Why? Because they have no incentive to do so. There's no competitor on the range front for them. If someone put out a car with a 300 mile EPA rated range, they'd probably up theirs. Obviously, they'll probably play with range on new models and I wouldn't be surprised if the X doesn't ship with something around a 300 mile EPA rated range, even if that means it ships with a bigger battery than is in the S. The only hold back there is how battery constrained they are. Without the competition they really don't have a lot of reason to push the range much. The AWD increasing the range seems to be more of a happenstance than a planned increase in range. They needed AWD to be competitive with ICE vehicles.

Elon announced a new 400 mile battery pack for the Roadster, meaning a much bigger range with respect to the Model S. So IMO when the new battery pack of the Roadster will be released I expect Tesla to produce a bigger battery pack also for the Model S for reasons of internal competition.
Maybe a 110 KWh battery pack with a range of 350 miles for the Model S in 2015?

Raffy.Roma said:

Elon announced a new 400 mile battery pack for the Roadster, meaning a much bigger range with respect to the Model S. So IMO when the new battery pack of the Roadster will be released I expect Tesla to produce a bigger battery pack also for the Model S for reasons of internal competition.
Maybe a 110 KWh battery pack with a range of 350 miles for the Model S in 2015?

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I'll believe the 400 mile pack for the Roadster when it ships. Just like I'll believe battery swapping for the S when they build the test station between LA and SF that was supposed to be done over a year ago. Elon says all sorts of things. Heck on Thursday he implied he was describing features his engineers didn't even know he was going to describe to the public.

You just never know what to believe with his announcements. Sometimes they deliver things you didn't think they could, sometimes they deliver nothing when they've already demonstrated the capability exists.

In the case of the 400 mile pack for the Roadster. I think there's just too few Roadsters out there for it to be a immediate priority for them.

Raffy.Roma said:

Maybe a 110 KWh battery pack with a range of 350 miles for the Model S in 2015?

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Oh noos, there will be a lot of topics of people complaining they got the 85 kWh pack, while someone else who took delivery a few days later got the 110 kWh pack. :wink:

breser said:

I'm willing to bet there won't be any change in range on the S based on battery changes. Why? Because they have no incentive to do so. There's no competitor on the range front for them.

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Your logic is flawed. From the get-go, Tesla has pushed into frontiers that weren't mainstream, building a market where there was none. Elon has a vision for Tesla that is different from the run-of-the mill car companies. He is building a company that supports current owners better than other car companies. Range is a huge hinderance to EV adoption, so I'd bet that Tesla is working overtime to increase it. Since the packs are modular, they will be much easier to upgrade compared to the packs in other cars. The current holdup is production. Currently any packs sent to an upgrade pathway subtract from new car production.

tezco said:

Your logic is flawed. From the get-go, Tesla has pushed into frontiers that weren't mainstream, building a market where there was none. Elon has a vision for Tesla that is different from the run-of-the mill car companies. He is building a company that supports current owners better than other car companies. Range is a huge hinderance to EV adoption, so I'd bet that Tesla is working overtime to increase it. Since the packs are modular, they will be much easier to upgrade compared to the packs in other cars. The current holdup is production. Currently any packs sent to an upgrade pathway subtract from new car production.

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I don't see how anything you said changes what I said. I pointed out that battery production constraints. If Tesla wasn't behind on a number of other things then sure you'd be absolutely right. If Tesla didn't have more demand than they can produce then yes you'd be right. I'd also be willing to bet they already have a range upgrade designed, they just have no reason to ship it right now.

breser said:

I'll believe the 400 mile pack for the Roadster when it ships. ...

In the case of the 400 mile pack for the Roadster. I think there's just too few Roadsters out there for it to be a immediate priority for them.

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Most Roadster owners would disagree. And I'd say we, as a group, have a bit more experience with Tesla and how the company operates.

So we'll see.

bonnie said:

Most Roadster owners would disagree. And I'd say we, as a group, have a bit more experience with Tesla and how the company operates.

So we'll see.

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Well I hope you're right. Because I think it would really extend the life of the Roadsters that are out there.

breser said:

Well I hope you're right. Because I think it would really extend the life of the Roadsters that are out there.

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Hahah. I'm not worried about the life of my Roadster. Odd that you are.

bonnie said:

Hahah. I'm not worried about the life of my Roadster. Odd that you are.

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I think you took that wrong. I'm not implying that roadsters are going to fail without new batteries. I'm implying that a battery upgrade keeps them competitive with newer vehicles that will ultimately have longer ranges. That's inevitable even if I don't see that in the near future until there is a competitive product.

If Tesla supports the Roadster in that way I think that would be very amazing.

MsElectric said:

I would not be surprised if they released a 110kwh Model S next year.

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I can already hear the howling of some owners how the release of a new battery merits a switch because they had the old battery delivered just two weeks before the new one came out and how Tesla deprived them of the chance to make an informed decision by keeping it a secret and not sticking to model years like sensible manufacturers.

It's almost a pity the new battery WILL likely be fully compatible and swappable with the old 85kw :biggrin:

breser said:

I'll believe the 400 mile pack for the Roadster when it ships. Just like I'll believe battery swapping for the S when they build the test station between LA and SF that was supposed to be done over a year ago. Elon says all sorts of things. Heck on Thursday he implied he was describing features his engineers didn't even know he was going to describe to the public.

You just never know what to believe with his announcements. Sometimes they deliver things you didn't think they could, sometimes they deliver nothing when they've already demonstrated the capability exists.

In the case of the 400 mile pack for the Roadster. I think there's just too few Roadsters out there for it to be a immediate priority for them.

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Believe what he says. Just take the timeline with a grain of salt.

Battery swapping is a special case anyway. The incentive for doing it evaporated. And, the "problem" that it was invented to solve hasn't materialized. Demand isn't weak despite linger "fill up" timed than people are accustomed to. Also, Tesla remains constrained by battery supply.

Right_Said_Fred said:

Oh noos, there will be a lot of topics of people complaining they got the 85 kWh pack, while someone else who took delivery a few days later got the 110 kWh pack. :wink:

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The rumours of a ~110kWh pack have been around for some time now. I won't be surprised if Tesla suddenly announces the 110kWh pack.

widodh said:

The rumours of a ~110kWh pack have been around for some time now. I won't be surprised if Tesla suddenly announces the 110kWh pack.

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While I'd love to see a larger battery pack, if the increase is more than marginal it may well not be backwards compatible because to maintain the same supercharger time of 1 hour nominal maximum, it will need heavier cabling in the car, and potentially different switch gear.

clealry it will happen one day;let's not all hold our breath expecting simple plug replacement.

simonog said:

While I'd love to see a larger battery pack, if the increase is more than marginal it may well not be backwards compatible because to maintain the same supercharger time of 1 hour nominal maximum, it will need heavier cabling in the car, and potentially different switch gear.

clealry it will happen one day;let's not all hold our breath expecting simple plug replacement.

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The cabling and switch equipment in the car is already sized to handle the maximum a supercharger can deliver. Thus, regardless of battery capacity, the equipment needs no change to handle the existing supercharger infrastructure.

And while it's true that to completely charge the battery will ultimately take longer it's also likely that, because the power taper would hit later, you would actually get MORE range in given charging session than with the equivalent 85kWh battery.