Schedule for Autopilot features

si123ca · Oct 10, 2014

Can we put together the best we know about the expected availability of various autopilot features? Anything you've heard from any reliable source (press, tesla employee, etc) would be useful.
Just to start off:

Speed Assist and Lane Departure Warning: Already available (at least some new owners have reported it)
ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control): Couple of months?? (6.xx firmware required?)
Lane Holding (as demo'd yesterday): ??
Auto Lane Change (as demo'd yesterday): ??
Blind-spot Warning: ??
Collision Detect/Emergency Braking: ??
Cross-Traffic Alert: ??
Traffic-signal/Stop-sign Detection: ??

si123ca · Oct 10, 2014

Adding one more

Self-Parking: ??

cgiGuy · Oct 10, 2014

Based off of the time-frame for previous software releases.. my bet would be years before the full suite is pushed out. Look how long 6.0 took and it ended up being a pretty underwhelming update.

ElSupreme · Oct 10, 2014

si123ca said:
Can we put together the best we know about the expected availability of various autopilot features? Anything you've heard from any reliable source (press, tesla employee, etc) would be useful.
Just to start off:

My guesses.

Speed Assist and Lane Departure Warning: Now
ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control): Early Q2 of 2015
Lane Holding (as demo'd yesterday): End of 2014, maybe coupled with ACC use so delayed with ACC, and probably only interstate/limited access roads
Auto Lane Change (as demo'd yesterday): End of 2015, probably requires some operator input (like blinker stalk)
Blind-spot Warning: Now / End of 2014
Collision Detect/Emergency Braking: Now / End of 2014, maybe coupled with ACC rollout
Cross-Traffic Alert: Not sure what this is
Traffic-signal/Stop-sign Detection: End of 2015, stop sign much easier than signal, might be rolled out seperately
Self park: End of Q2 of 2015

pgiralt · Oct 10, 2014

Soon

breser · Oct 10, 2014

My bets, based largely on the assumption that they're going to roll out the things that help them on the safety ratings as quickly as possible:

Speed Assist and Lane Departure Warning: Now
ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control): December or January (very shortly after first D's start being delivered, I just can't see them delivering cars with hardware switches that do nothing for long)
Lane Holding (as demo'd yesterday): Q4 2015 (this goes beyond what the safety ratings want)
Auto Lane Change (as demo'd yesterday): Q4 2015 (this is really out there, may never make it to the car)
Blind-spot Warning: December of January (same software upgrade as ACC)
Collision Detect/Emergency Braking: December or January (same software upgrade as ACC)
Cross-Traffic Alert: duplicate this is blind-spot detection by another name.
Traffic-signal/Stop-sign Detection: End of 2015 (again way beyond what anyone else has, no hurry)
Self park: Q4 2015 (same update as lane holding/lane change)

So basically I see two updates.

One later this year or early next with ACC, Blind-spot warning, Collision detect/emergency braking.
One late next year with the other stuff.

Seesaw · Oct 10, 2014

Probably need to split out the self-parking into separate features as I don't think they will be available all at once.

There is the typical automated parallel parking.

Elon also stated there will be remote parking (you get out of the car, the car drives to your garage, opens the garage door, closes it, then shuts off).

And car summoning - the car drives by itself to meet you with the climate control set and favourite station or music playing - he also said this could be linked to your calender.

ElSupreme · Oct 10, 2014

Seesaw said:
Elon also stated there will be remote parking (you get out of the car, the car drives to your garage, opens the garage door, closes it, then shuts off).

And car summoning - the car drives by itself to meet you with the climate control set and favourite station or music playing - he also said this could be linked to your calender.

This will certainly require some legislation. And probably legislation to limit a manufacuter's liability in an accident.

Gee Wow automatic parking with someone behind the wheel. It's a gimick, so probably not till after the easier more important stuff is done. It will become low hanging fruit after a while. So then.

donv · Oct 10, 2014

We are talking Elon time, of course, and he said "over the next few months" which probably means not before the end of the year.

However, they can only go so long selling people on a car with "autopilot" without delivering it-- and if you look at their website, that is exactly what they are selling. I would guess we'll see ACC soon-- maybe before the end of the year. There is nothing special about ACC, and no reason they shouldn't be able to deliver that any day now.

Does it do blind spot warning now? No easy way to test that, I suppose.

I think it will do lane holding, auto lane change, freeway autopilot by the end of Q1 next year (2015). Maybe sooner.

Self parking? I wonder if it will ever do that...

Saghost · Oct 10, 2014

They have all the hardware, and clearly have the software basically worked out. I think you'll see freeway autopilot as demonstrated within the next couple months.
Walter

Gizmotoy · Oct 10, 2014

donv said:
We are talking Elon time, of course, and he said "over the next few months" which probably means not before the end of the year.

However, they can only go so long selling people on a car with "autopilot" without delivering it-- and if you look at their website, that is exactly what they are selling. I would guess we'll see ACC soon-- maybe before the end of the year. There is nothing special about ACC, and no reason they shouldn't be able to deliver that any day now.

Does it do blind spot warning now? No easy way to test that, I suppose.

I think it will do lane holding, auto lane change, freeway autopilot by the end of Q1 next year (2015). Maybe sooner.

Self parking? I wonder if it will ever do that...

Agreed. Don't buy a Tesla based on promised features. Buy one on what it has now. Software improvements have been great, but always slower than promised. One hopes that the reason 6.0 wasn't very aggressive was because most of their software team was working on this stuff, but I'm not holding my breath that these are features with an impending release date.

Self parking sounds an awful lot like battery swap stations: something that works great in a demo, but is substantially more difficult to put into practice.

Blurry_Eyed · Oct 10, 2014

cgiGuy said:
Based off of the time-frame for previous software releases.. my bet would be years before the full suite is pushed out. Look how long 6.0 took and it ended up being a pretty underwhelming update.

I believe Tesla has a fairly small development team, so I would suspect that they have been putting a significant amount of their time into developing the software for the Autopilot features as well as the dual motor controls. From the video I saw of the event last night, the demos were pretty impressive, so factor that in to the reason that 6.0 took so long and was relatively underwhelming.

R²B · Oct 10, 2014

Normally with some announced new functionality I'm cautiously reserved on when we may actually get it but to advertise Autopilot so direct and "in your face" on the website like they have makes me believe this is much closer to becoming reality than new features in the past.

Stoneymonster · Oct 10, 2014

This is a huge competitive advantage for them. The website states ramp to ramp autopilot is the goal of the current hardware. I think that will be the software team's focus for the next 2 years. Failure to accomplish this very publically advertised goal would be a catastrophe and not like the smaller broken promises we've experienced.

si123ca · Oct 10, 2014

ElSupreme said:
My guesses.
Cross-Traffic Alert: Not sure what this is

When the car is in reverse and there's a vehicle that's passing by behind you but is currently not in your rear camera's field-of-view (ie, it's approaching and will soon be behind you), this alerts you. So, it's similar to blind-spot, but looking behind the car (for movement perpendicular to the car's direction), not on the left/right sides. Given the ultrasonics on the MS, what Elon said about that creating a cocoon around the car, and given the similarity to blind-spot detection (which he did mention), I think this is likely part of the (eventual!) package.

andrewket · Oct 10, 2014

For what it's worth in trying to make "educated" guesses, the cars being used for the demo last night were running 6.0 (101.10.12). That might suggest that all the features that were shown last night will become available within the 6.0 software and that we won't have to wait for another major release.

donv · Oct 10, 2014

2 years? If it takes them 2 years, they should give up. GM will have something similar in less than 2 years. I'd be disappointed if they don't have some of these features (autopilot, primarily) by January.

Stoneymonster said:
This is a huge competitive advantage for them. The website states ramp to ramp autopilot is the goal of the current hardware. I think that will be the software team's focus for the next 2 years. Failure to accomplish this very publically advertised goal would be a catastrophe and not like the smaller broken promises we've experienced.

Stoneymonster · Oct 10, 2014

I meant 2 years for the whole big deal: fully automated ramp to ramp driving, car picking you up in a parking lot, etc. I fully expect what was demo'd to be available early next year.

Saghost · Oct 10, 2014

si123ca said:
ElSupreme said:

My guesses.
Cross-Traffic Alert: Not sure what this is

When the car is in reverse and there's a vehicle that's passing by behind you but is currently not in your rear camera's field-of-view (ie, it's approaching and will soon be behind you), this alerts you. So, it's similar to blind-spot, but looking behind the car (for movement perpendicular to the car's direction), not on the left/right sides. Given the ultrasonics on the MS, what Elon said about that creating a cocoon around the car, and given the similarity to blind-spot detection (which he did mention), I think this is likely part of the (eventual!) package.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure. Cross traffic alert requires seeing cars a bunch further out, and I haven't seen anything in the sensor package to do it. The side looking ultrasound that the car uses for blind spot alert and parallel parking has a 16 foot range according to the blog post.

I don't think that's enough to make an effective cross-traffic alert; I know ford uses radar for that (and blind spot detection) on the cross-traffic equipped cars.
Walter

redi · Oct 10, 2014

Gizmotoy said:
Agreed. Don't buy a Tesla based on promised features. Buy one on what it has now. Software improvements have been great, but always slower than promised. One hopes that the reason 6.0 wasn't very aggressive was because most of their software team was working on this stuff, but I'm not holding my breath that these are features with an impending release date.

Self parking sounds an awful lot like battery swap stations: something that works great in a demo, but is substantially more difficult to put into practice.

This is the absolutely best advice I have seen ever on buying a Tesla - and should be on the Tesla sales contract.

There is a very good chance (almost guaranteed) that some significant portion of the features announced in the marketing and futures presentation migrate into the "never" category (notwithstanding the fact that other cars have the features) for whatever reason to remain forever there (with battery swap and others).

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