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Goldman Says Model X "Prototype" at Detroit Auto Show

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I think I remember Elon saying that the actual Model X was going to look better than the prototype. One of his pet peeves, apparently, is when car companies show an awesome prototype and then the final product is a disappointment. I have a feeling we are going to be pleasantly surprised when we see the production version.
 
I think I remember Elon saying that the actual Model X was going to look better than the prototype. One of his pet peeves, apparently, is when car companies show an awesome prototype and then the final product is a disappointment. I have a feeling we are going to be pleasantly surprised when we see the production version.

That's just it. If it's being shown in January, it should NOT be a prototype, but a production car (beta at worse).
 
A prototype of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) next model, the Model X, will likely be unveiled at the Detroit auto show, analyts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday. The analysts visited the factory in Fremont, Calif. recently but didn't get to see the prototype of the SUV. The car will have a dual motor all-wheel drive feature, which points to "a superior driving experience for owners," but will add about $1,200 to the price, Goldman said. The Detroit auto show takes place in late January, with previews for the press starting Jan. 12. -Claudia Assis; 415-439-6400; [email protected]

Only $1200 more for the AWD?!
 
What exactly was what was shown in 2012?
In Tesla terminology, I think (a) you're correct that that was a "prototype" at the "reveals" and (b) we'll be seeing "alphas" next.

"Analysts" don't understand (or "don't faithfully report") anything other than "shipped car" vs. "other" and for "other" they use words like prototype, alpha, beta, test, etc.
 
A prototype of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) next model, the Model X, will likely be unveiled at the Detroit auto show, analyts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday. The analysts visited the factory in Fremont, Calif. recently but didn't get to see the prototype of the SUV. The car will have a dual motor all-wheel drive feature, which points to "a superior driving experience for owners," but will add about $1,200 to the price, Goldman said. The Detroit auto show takes place in late January, with previews for the press starting Jan. 12. -Claudia Assis; 415-439-6400; [email protected]

Only $1200 more for the AWD?!
Seriously, at that price I'll get a spare and a third motor to spin it. Can't imagine it's not a lot more. At $1,200, when they offer it on Model S, it will be as popular as the pano roof (meaning 80% uptake).

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A prototype of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) next model, the Model X, will likely be unveiled at the Detroit auto show, analyts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday. The analysts visited the factory in Fremont, Calif. recently but didn't get to see the prototype of the SUV. The car will have a dual motor all-wheel drive feature, which points to "a superior driving experience for owners," but will add about $1,200 to the price, Goldman said. The Detroit auto show takes place in late January, with previews for the press starting Jan. 12. -Claudia Assis; 415-439-6400; [email protected]

Only $1200 more for the AWD?!
Seriously, at that price I'll get a spare and a third motor to spin it. Can't imagine it's not a lot more. At $1,200, when they offer it on Model S, it will be as popular as the pano roof (meaning 80% uptake).
 
Goldman: Tesla Model X prototype likely at Detroit show - MarketWatch

Not much here, so unsure how much weight to put on this. It would flow with the new "Spring" delivery timetable, but a prototype? What exactly was what was shown in 2012?

The word "prototype" is often used in a very loose sense. In this case I think what could be meant is a "production prototype", meaning an X that looks like what will actually come off the production line when the car goes on sale.

But really the writer is just guessing, they don't know for sure.
 
A prototype of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) next model, the Model X, will likely be unveiled at the Detroit auto show, analyts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Friday. The analysts visited the factory in Fremont, Calif. recently but didn't get to see the prototype of the SUV. The car will have a dual motor all-wheel drive feature, which points to "a superior driving experience for owners," but will add about $1,200 to the price, Goldman said. The Detroit auto show takes place in late January, with previews for the press starting Jan. 12. -Claudia Assis; 415-439-6400; [email protected]

Only $1200 more for the AWD?!

Elon Musk did say in a Q and A that he expected the Model X to cost a low single digit percentage over the Model S because of the AWD. I was thinking about 4% when he said it, but at $1200 that is less than 2% over todays base Model S. Very good news if it turns out to be true. I suspect the final average price people pay, though, will have a lot more to do with how they price and package the options than the cost of the AWD system. The cost for the Model S options have sky rocketed since they started taking Model X reservations. Still, no one can complain about a $1200 increase in the price for AWD.
 
My bet, AWD is a $3,000~5,000 option.
It makes no sense to have some lights cost $1,000, and AWD (which requires significantly more power electronics, an additional motor, a differential, and gearbox) cost only $200 more.

Depends on how the AWD is set up, I'd think. If they split the power between the front and rear they wouldn't need much more total cost in the power electronics, and that's where the key costs would be.
 
Anyone think that the Goldman speculation is bogus?

As far as I can remember, Tesla always hosts its own events for major announcements: Tesla unveiled the Model S Beta at Fremont in late 2011. The Model X concept, Superchargers, and Battery Swap were all demonstrated at special Tesla events. The only announcement I can remember from an auto show was when Tesla revealed ahead of the Q4 '13 conference that they beat projections for the end of 2013.

Company statements indicated that the Alpha stage would last about 3 months, and we know from the SEC 10-Q form that Tesla had drivable Alphas as of 9 August 2014. 9 Sept = Month1, 9 Oct = Month2, 9 Nov = Month3 My best guess is therefore a Beta reveal in early December... I suspect that reservation holders will be receiving invitations in 7-8 weeks for a special event!
 
My bet, AWD is a $3,000~5,000 option.
It makes no sense to have some lights cost $1,000, and AWD (which requires significantly more power electronics, an additional motor, a differential, and gearbox) cost only $200 more.

AWD is not an option on Model X. It is standard. The cost of the AWD system is only brought up to explain possible price differences between the Model S and the Model X.
 
Anyone think that the Goldman speculation is bogus?

As far as I can remember, Tesla always hosts its own events for major announcements: Tesla unveiled the Model S Beta at Fremont in late 2011. The Model X concept, Superchargers, and Battery Swap were all demonstrated at special Tesla events. The only announcement I can remember from an auto show was when Tesla revealed ahead of the Q4 '13 conference that they beat projections for the end of 2013.

Company statements indicated that the Alpha stage would last about 3 months, and we know from the SEC 10-Q form that Tesla had drivable Alphas as of 9 August 2014. 9 Sept = Month1, 9 Oct = Month2, 9 Nov = Month3 My best guess is therefore a Beta reveal in early December... I suspect that reservation holders will be receiving invitations in 7-8 weeks for a special event!


+1; And IMO there is no way AWD S is only $1,200 more that current S. To get the most GP I believe when the AWD S is released it will only be available on the top of the line P85+ (at least initially) to help with GP margins AND it will add $5K minimum to the price of that vehicle.

The X will be priced $5-10K above their model S counterparts. Three models 60;85 and p+85 (no P85). I could even see no 60 initially to keep margins up.
 
+1; And IMO there is no way AWD S is only $1,200 more that current S. To get the most GP I believe when the AWD S is released it will only be available on the top of the line P85+ (at least initially) to help with GP margins AND it will add $5K minimum to the price of that vehicle.
Another possibility is that Tesla makes AWD standard across the entire platform. That removes the need for compatibility with RWD, which simplifies things to an extent. As standard on the Model S, AWD shouldn't be very expensive ($1200 isn't far from the truth), but as an option, $3000-$5000 seems about right.
 
Another possibility is that Tesla makes AWD standard across the entire platform. That removes the need for compatibility with RWD, which simplifies things to an extent. As standard on the Model S, AWD shouldn't be very expensive ($1200 isn't far from the truth), but as an option, $3000-$5000 seems about right.
Straying from topic, but going forward having AWD standard on premium models like S and X would be one significant way to create the premium step-up from Model 3. I like this idea as it in theory increases performance in terms of top end speed and highway fuel economy.