On Fox Business yesterday, Elon was being interviewed and said that he feels good about forecasting 15,000 model X being delivered next year. 20,000 if everything goes right. He said that they have basically pre-sold all their 2015 Model X production. So if you order one now, don't expect it until 2016...
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Nubo
Test Mule
They might want to update their web page then. Still saying Fall 2015, not Winter; much less 2016!
teslamotors.com said:
Depends if the X is that much better. SUVs attract a whole different market than sedans. Porsche knows that, and also found a new cash-cow with the Cayenne, which sells better than anything else they build. http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=751
Interestingly, the introduction of the Cayenne didn't seem to effect 911 sales.
If Model S sales become at-all slower, they surely will produce and sell Model X to make up for it - since the orders are in. I doubt the term "sold out" applies - it may be that they planned to produce and sell 15K but could react to any market demand. Note that they also put in the ER release that they could be delivering 2000 per week by end of 2015. That is far more than a 15k sales total of Model X.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
If X=Cayenne then S=Panamera.
On the subject though, I don't think X sales will cannibalize S sales, as long as Tesla can increase production accordingly.
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
Take a look at Model X Tally - Summary Numbers. There are now over 20k reservations world wide. Even with a 25% attrition rate, that is still over 15k, and that means the 15k first year is already sold out.
True but like with the model S roll-out they'll go country by country for homologation reasons, although I expect it to be faster this time and maybe in a different order. I'd still guess that a US Model X order today will probably arrive before a RHD model X order a year ago.
Except they don't compare nearly as well as the S and X do.
The Cayenne starts $30K less than the Panamera. That changes the market a lot.
If you want a Porsche family car, and you dont want to spend $80K+ the only option is the Cayenne.
I am seriously considering trading in my S on the X. If the X and S both existed 2 years ago, I would have probably chosen the X.
That is one X sale that would have cannibalized the S.
Last edited:
The term sold out means they cannot make more and will reach the limit of the delivery goal. But sold-out does not mean cannot-sell-more. If they can deliver 2000 per week by end of 2015 (per the ER and Elon), then they could indeed deliver 4000 MX per month, perhaps - December, November and October alone would be 12K. And that is half of the delivery rate they are shooting for to end 2015. I think sold out is a bad way to word Model X for 2015 and Elon did himself a disservice by saying that on Fox Business News - it just makes it sound like you can't get one when I bet if you order a Model X now - you will have it long before December 2015. Why would they want to only sell 15K next year? That is actually counter to what a growing company wants to do - they want to sell more. The primary question I have is how much will MX cost? If it is of a certain pricing, I would order one myself for mid-2016 delivery. Otherwise, I'm still waiting for an affordable CUV/SUV style BEV or even EREV. Some folks here did say they reserved both a Signature and Production model so there will be some slippage from the reservation number. Others have moved from waiting on MX to buying an MS now.
ElectricLove
Member
I would imagine the Model S number will go down with many buyers opting for the X instead of the S, but maybe not if the "wait-list" is over a year b/c buyers may prefer to just buy what is actually "available"... I'd imagine if availability were equal the X would hurt S sales.
There is also the potential for reservation holders to bail on their reservation once the MX is officially released. I don't plan to do so, but I can see situations where it could happen. That 20k number could drop to 15k...
It has been said that they are anti-selling MX now and urging customers to purchase Model S. If they get a lag of MS orders waiting on the MX, then the talk of the MX being "sold out" for 2015 could be a play on words to setup more Model S sales in first half of next year. My take is they do need to start receiving substantial Q1 orders now or else have a slight problem with keeping up with the sales rate of Q4. All markets are open now for MS (well, except Russia, I guess) so all sales in 2015 should be new orders and not backlog.
Makes sense. While Tesla isn't in this business over decades -like Porsche- the new model is not only a bigger Tesla: It is Tesla's ALLNEWUPGRADED Version of a THE future car. Like iphone 4 was to iphone 3. So i think i am not the only one who didnt let his ears fill with the "sell talk" and decided to wait (reserve) for the X and who is not buying the S now.
The X will be better in so many ways, so you will not want a 1 year old Tesla2 (ModelS) in 2015! You will want this brand new Tesla3 (ModelX)!
So i do understand the idea of holding back the Model X buyers, but they will do much better by finally speeding up the Model X production.
Greetings
Earl
Absolutely, Earlian. I think the best thing Musk could do is to pump out a news flash in October saying "surprise, Model X ships today! (at the Detroit auto show)" Not only would that be a nice shock to the system and get the MX flowing to market in the colder months but also indicate they can under-promise and over-deliver. In the mean time, I suspect that AWD Model S will appear relatively soon for reservation and maybe January delivery. I have a friend of a friend (you know the drill) who interned at Tesla a while back. They said that the old assembly line was being reworked for Model X production. I suspect the new high speed line will do Model S and the old line can do Model X in tandem and how long does it really take to finish up Model X anyway? It's just an electric car - couple wires and you're done! 
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Absolutely, Earlian. I think the best thing Musk could do is to pump out a news flash in October saying "surprise, Model X ships today! (at the Detroit auto show)" Not only would that be a nice shock to the system and get the MX flowing to market in the colder months but also indicate they can under-promise and over-deliver. In the mean time, I suspect that AWD Model S will appear relatively soon for reservation and maybe January delivery. I have a friend of a friend (you know the drill) who interned at Tesla a while back. They said that the old assembly line was being reworked for Model X production. I suspect the new high speed line will do Model S and the old line can do Model X in tandem and how long does it really take to finish up Model X anyway? It's just an electric car - couple wires and you're done!
Model X and Model S will be produced on both lines. That's been publicly stated multiple times (and I've seen the lines).
As far as shipping the Model X in October ... nice idea, but no. It's not just a few wires
. Those darn body panels take nice big dies for stamping out parts. The pits have been readied for the dies, but the dies aren't yet made. (Early Model X demos will not have stamped parts.) Crash tests need to be conducted. Pesky details like that. And early reservation holders would have already been contacted and asked to configure if October deliveries were going to commence. That has not happened, either.Everyone is anxious, including me. But I think we'll see deliveries in the spring.
