Huge quarter end spike in deliveries

It would go a long way in addressing recent share volatility.

FrozenCanuck said:

It seems Tesla is pushing hard to make a LOT of deliveries by quarter end. I was at the Toronto supercharger yesterday. This is also a store / service centre (hello to the folks reading!). I went inside while charging and the floor was totally covered with new Model S cars for delivery. One of the guys who does PDI mentioned that something like 3 trucks had arrived full of cars in the last couple of days.

I should have taken pictures.

And then my attention was directed to a post here:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/njeaa/

Springfield, NJ location expected to deliver 160 cars by month end.

Wow.

Any other stories from folks visiting Tesla delivery locations?
Who think they can beat guidance?

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anecdotal evidence. There is usual rush to deliver cars by end of qtr. they batch cars too for different localities, cannot extrapolate to other delivery sites. He said yesterday he thought they would meet guidance in fox interview, if no unexpected logistical hold ups.

Chickenlittle said:

anecdotal evidence. There is usual rush to deliver cars by end of qtr. they batch cars too for different localities, cannot extrapolate to other delivery sites. He said yesterday he thought they would meet guidance in fox interview, if no unexpected logistical hold ups.

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Anecdotal yes, but it does help underpin Elon's statement. I would be worried if there were not anecdotes about hasty end of quarter deliveries.

austinEV said:

Anecdotal yes, but it does help underpin Elon's statement. I would be worried if there were not anecdotes about hasty end of quarter deliveries.

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Just don't want anybody expecting huge beat. Musk has always been quite honest. I believe report will hinge more on margins and guidance.

Chickenlittle said:

Just don't want anybody expecting huge beat. Musk has always been quite honest. I believe report will hinge more on margins and guidance.

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I am not hoping for a huge beat considering the unexpected delay in installing the second line at Fremont.

Just hoping they hit guidance at 7800.

My DS said that they are killing themselves to deliver all cars promised September deliveries IN September. I was told my 9/27 delivery might be moved up or back a day or so depending on the truck, but I WILL get my car in Sept. Another anecdote from AZ.

RobStark said:

I am not hoping for a huge beat considering the unexpected delay in installing the second line at Fremont.

Just hoping they hit guidance at 7800.

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What delay. That is speculation without announcement

Chickenlittle said:

What delay. That is speculation without announcement

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I thought it was scheduled for 2 week shutdown but lasted 3 weeks?

Mine is due 9-26. I worry that they may be under so much pressure to perform that it compromise their quality. Boy, do I hope not.

TDial said:

Mine is due 9-26. I worry that they may be under so much pressure to perform that it compromise their quality. Boy, do I hope not.

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would not worry about that. its not the production thats rushed but the delivery. every qtr seems to end like this. loaners are sold as well as second cars on the show room floor. have not heard of quality issues in other quarters. enjoy your car

Chickenlittle said:

would not worry about that. its not the production thats rushed but the delivery. every qtr seems to end like this. loaners are sold as well as second cars on the show room floor. have not heard of quality issues in other quarters. enjoy your car

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True. Production is going as fast as it can all the time. I believe they are limited by the number of battery packs that can be put together.

The end of quarter rush is an effect of no new cars being sent off to places they won't arrive at before the end of quarter. Basically no new cars will be sent to Europe and China this month, instead they will be delivering all the cars they made sure to send last month. As they aren't sending any cars overseas, they have planned it out so that almost all the cars produced this month are for US and Canadian customers. And for the cars produced in the last few days of the month, they will almost exclusively be doing factory deliveries and deliveries in the Bay area.

I was at the Costa Mesa, CA (Orange County) delivery center this morning. They are prepping cars left and right. The nearby Service Center is literally crammed with Model S's. There were well over 200 of them there and they had people coming in to take delivery every hour. I didn't take the time to look at many serial numbers, but I did catch one at 54XXX.

I feel like its catchup or it's going to be a massive beat for delivery. Based on Elons recent fox interview in NY I'm hoping its the latter.

aznt1217 said:

I feel like its catchup or it's going to be a massive beat for delivery. Based on Elons recent fox interview in NY I'm hoping its the latter.

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It's the former. Wouldn't be working today just for a massive beat. Production is behind from the shutdown/startup of the new line.

Same deal at the Dallas SC, they're working late into the nights to keep the deliveries moving on for the end of the qtr. Seems ot be a pattern at Tesla though, not sure this qtr is different to any other, aside from the fact they might be trying to make up for the 2 week retooling.

The stock does not need any bad news, there have been enough buying opportunities. A +5% would be nice, otherwise it looks pulled forward.

Do you think production is below Tesla's guidance or Tesla's internal expectations? Didn't someone conclude Tesla had around 4000 Model S that could act as a buffer in the event of any production delays?

Similar sight reported by richroot at the Vancouver BC SC:

TM service center on Powell St, Vancouver - parts in stock?