Model X reveal

Perfectlogic · Sep 15, 2014

I expect the Model X reveal to have a good chance of being a positive catalyst on the stock, so I was wondering if anyone had some colour on the event. I remember reading about a Model X reveal event at their factory on this forum a few weeks back with a date of October 9., couldn't find it again now though, is this set in stone? Will they reveal every detail about the car and let people drive it? Will pricing be revealed?

ecarfan · Sep 15, 2014

No one outside of Tesla knows the answers to your questions with any degree of certainty. But feel free to speculate...

SteveG3 · Sep 15, 2014

Perfectlogic said:
I expect the Model X reveal to have a good chance of being a positive catalyst on the stock, so I was wondering if anyone had some colour on the event. I remember reading about a Model X reveal event at their factory on this forum a few weeks back with a date of October 9., couldn't find it again now though, is this set in stone? Will they reveal every detail about the car and let people drive it? Will pricing be revealed?

PL, I'm hoping for sometime in November or sooner, but preparing myself to wait until January's big Detroit Auto Show. I agree re it being quite a catalyst. Elon usually delivers when he says something will be great, but, of course, it's not a guarantee (he really talked up the original lease arrangement leading up to the announcement, and that was quite a dud. I can't see the Model X being a dud, but there's a possibility expectations are so high what they deliver doesn't wow to the point of moving the stock up.).

RDoc · Sep 15, 2014

I'm unaware of any battery swapping stations.

Perfectlogic · Sep 15, 2014

but there's a possibility expectations are so high what they deliver doesn't wow to the point of moving the stock up.

If they hit the ball out of the park with the X like they did with the S, which I believe they will given Elons enthusiasm as you also mention, and the fact that Tesla's budget have been much larger than they had with the S and they even have more experience now too, then I think there is a good chance of a floor being created around the $300-$320 SP level, as it will add confidence in Tesla not being a "one trick pony" with the S and add to the likelihood of the Model 3 being succesful too. Furthermore the sales Tesla will reach with a succesful X would probably reach more than $15B in 2016, and that forecast of high margin sales would ofcourse add to the support around the $40B market cap.

SteveG3 · Sep 15, 2014

Perfectlogic said:
If they hit the ball out of the park with the X like they did with the S, which I believe they will given Elons enthusiasm as you also mention, and the fact that Tesla's budget have been much larger than they had with the S and they even have more experience now too, then I think there is a good chance of a floor being created around the $300-$320 SP level, as it will add confidence in Tesla not being a "one trick pony" with the S and add to the likelihood of the Model 3 being succesful too. Furthermore the sales Tesla will reach with a succesful X would probably reach more than $15B in 2016, and that forecast of high margin sales would ofcourse add to the support around the $40B market cap.

I agree. I've been generally thinking the X reveal (and reviews and customer reaction with deliveries that follow) will move the stock, and have not been concerned at speculation over risks on near term quarterly financials because I think the X impact is far greater. I also think some of the run up to $290 was in anticipation of the X reveal being a positive, and at some point, a very good X is factored in and it would take a stellar X reveal to add more to a move. Well, all that's changed with the stock at $250 on an odd Morgan Stanley report.

jhm · Sep 16, 2014

I'm beginning to think Tesla should not reveal the Model X until the day they start taking orders for it.

Cattledog · Sep 16, 2014

jhm said:
I'm beginning to think Tesla should not reveal the Model X until the day they start taking orders for it.

They've been taking reservations for 2.5 years, so I think you mean when people are allowed to go online and configure it, correct?

jhm · Sep 16, 2014

Cattledog said:
They've been taking reservations for 2.5 years, so I think you mean when people are allowed to go online and configure it, correct?

Yes.

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