Altairnano "Nano-Safe" Lithium-Ion batteries

[TEG]

Altairnano as used by Phoenix Motorcars, Zap, and Lightning.

http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/node/957

No need for sealed, managed storage systems because they are more inherently stable.

Biggest obstacle today: Cost.
Due to 10 minute recharge capability, ZEV credits in California may make them actually able to undercut Tesla ESS on price.

Some Tesla response here.

[Michael]

I would imagine that if Tesla were to approach Altair about providing batteries for the Whitestar and beyond, it would help to quickly reduce the price by greatly increasing the production volume. I would think that a government grant to help faciliate the building of a production facility would also greatly help in reducing the initial cost of these batteries.

Of course, I've read that these batteries (the latest iteration) have about half the energy density of the batteries currently being used by Tesla in the Roadster, however there should be much greater space available to put the batteris in the Whitestar and the ability to get the quick charge would significantly increase the likelihood that people would be able to consider the vehicle as a complete replacement for their current ICE vehicle.

I wonder how the energy density of the current A123 batteries compare to the Altair ones. I've also heard that the A123 batteries should have a quick recharge capability.

[Kardax]

Some corrections:
* ZEV credits may allow AltairNano to undercut the Tesla ESS on price... in California only. Everywhere else, the Tesla ESS is the cheapest large-capacity battery in existence.
* ZAP is not actually using AltairNano yet. People have assumed it based on the ZAP-X's battery description, but it hasn't been announced. I actually doubt that will happen, as AltairNano owns a chunk of Phoenix, and it's not in their interest to help their competition.
* Now that I mention it, ZAP hasn't actually done any work on the ZAP-X yet; just a feasibility study with Lotus (and I bet Lotus told them that the ZAP-X's specs are impossible to fit in under $100,000, thus leading to ZAP's recent announcement of a less-ambitious project).
* Quick charge isn't really a useful feature for home users until a quick charge infrastructure is built. Until then, home users will charge at Tesla ESS speeds--so what's the advantage? Commercial fleets, though, could install high-powered chargers at a central depot, and don't need long range.

I do like NanoSafe, but they need to get that cost down.

-Ryan / Kardax

[TEG]

Some corrections:
* ZEV credits may allow AltairNano to undercut the Tesla ESS on price... in California only. Everywhere else, the Tesla ESS is the cheapest large-capacity battery in existence.

If you look at my original posting, I did say "In California..."

* ZAP is not actually using AltairNano yet. People have assumed it based on the ZAP-X's battery description, but it hasn't been announced.

I think it is a bit more than that actually.
Altairnano confirms they are talking to Zap! about batteries for the Zap-X
"Zap! has ordered some batteries and AltairNano is delivering them."
"Both Zap! and Phoenix spokespersons singled out AltairNano as the battery supplier of choice"
"Altairnano CEO Alan Gotcher: We have been talking with Zap and Lotus and yes, Zap has, aspirations to use the Altair technology in their vehicle. And we're in discussion around the commercial terms of that agreement. I'm not aware of anyone who has battery technology similar to Altairnano's NanoSafe battery performance."

* ZAP-X's specs are impossible to fit in under $100,000

The speculation has been that their business model calls for selling the CA ZEV credits to make up the difference between the cost and sales price.

* Quick charge isn't really a useful feature for home users until a quick charge infrastructure is built. Until then, home users will charge at Tesla ESS speeds--so what's the advantage? Commercial fleets, though, could install high-powered chargers at a central depot, and don't need long range.

Yes, I think many are in agreement. The 10 minute recharge feature is basically an impractical "demo feature" at this point.
Unfortunately the wacky ZEV Credit laws give you a big incentive to offer 10 minute recharge capability.

I do like NanoSafe, but they need to get that cost down.

Yes, that would sure help kick start a bigger EV market!!

[Michael]

I believe that the bottom line is that either there needs to be sufficient range available (for a full days driving) so that an overnight charge is acceptable, or there needs to be sufficient range to drive several hours while only requiring a short period of time to perform a recharge. Having the quick charge capability will be what's needed to kick start the recharging infrastructure on travel routes.

Having the quick charge capability will also allow for slower adoption of overnight recharging stations at hotels, etc. The best solution would seem to be the adoption of both along with the ability for much more than just 500 recharge cycles.

[Kardax]

Thanks TEG, I missed some of those

I need to find out more about ZEV credits one of these days. All I know right now is that there are two classes, that 10 minute recharge is worth 10 times as much as the other one, and that Automakers have to pay fines if they don't have enough credits.

I'm curious how that'll play out. There are certainly risks.
Will the automakers just pay the fines rather than deal with the complexity of ZEV trading?
Will Tesla destroy Zap and Phoenix by selling their credits for next-to-nothing?
Will the CARB cave to pressure by big auto and cripple ZEV credits?

-Ryan / Kardax

[TEG]

Those are certainly good questions, Kardax... And Tesla has already stated that they think a business model based on expected value from ZEV credits is risky (and not wise). [Of course they would say that since they don't have 10 minute recharge now, but still I think they are right]

Another possibility you didn't mention:

Big car companies could sell their own ZEVs and earn the credits themselves.
They may be able to push fuel cell prototypes on fleets, or get back into the EV business just enough to satisfy the remaining CARB requirements.

[tonybelding]

Will Tesla destroy Zap and Phoenix by selling their credits for next-to-nothing?

Tesla won't have that many credits to play with. Each car Tesla sells in California is worth only 1/10th the credits of a car that Phoenix sells (because Tesla's cars can't recharge in 10 minutes). Each car that Tesla sells outside of California earns no credits.

This is why Tesla are not counting ZEV credits as a big financial element of their business.

[Kardax]

Tesla won't have that many credits to play with. Each car Tesla sells in California is worth only 1/10th the credits of a car that Phoenix sells (because Tesla's cars can't recharge in 10 minutes). Each car that Tesla sells outside of California earns no credits.

You're right, I was screwed up in the head when I wrote that. Even if Tesla sells 10 times as many WhiteStars in California as Phoenix sells SUTs, they still have a 50/50 split of the ZEV credit market.

I think TEG is on to something when he says the big automakers can easily generate their own ZEV credits.

Bottom line, one or more of these risks are going to come true, so Phoenix and Zap had better take advantage of it while they can

It is a pity, though, that NanoSafe can only exist in California--doesn't do me much good here in Minnesota

-Ryan / Kardax

[TEG]

Also keep in mind that the ZEV credit quagmire only lasts through 2012, so we only have to endure 5 years of this madness, before we see what new obstacle course is constructed.