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Deliveries are now pushed back? Q4 already had a very optimistic delivery projection.

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Deliveries are now pushed back? Q4 already had a very optimistic delivery projection. But all those slippages I quoted below are alarming. I wonder if we are about to hear bad news? Supplier issue or new assembly line need redesign or something like that? May be Tesla will lower Q4 guidance during next call?

Model S Delivery Update - Page 702

Ouch.. my dashboard just updated and went from Late October to December. That's a drastic change. Anyone else see something similar? Confirmed 8/18.
Mine got move from Late Oct to Late Nov. Confirmed 8/7. P85+
...
Moved delivery date from November to December yesterday.
Now I know the change from late October to December was not just my order. That is a significant adjustment that suggests a major issue. What are DS people saying? My designated DS has not answered two messages from me sent 11 and 4 days ago.
VIN 57474
confirmed 8/22
delivery (Columbus) changed from November to December last evening.

Pearl s85 black/pano/tech/sensors
Me, too on switch from Nov to Dec....

And many other reports like that.
 
No moves from 2014 to 2015 reported yet? December is still Q4. It could be they're building European and Asian cars first, to still be able to get them to customers in Q4 despite longer shipping times, and North American cars later, which are faster to deliver and can also still get to customers in Q4.

One thing is for sure: it will be long hours for the delivery specialists at the end of December.
 
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I hate to be the optimist

I hate to be a pessimist, different personalities I guess :smile:

No moves from 2014 to 2015 reported yet? December is still Q4.
Well, slippage has to come from somewhere. Even if current orders have not slipped from 14' to 15', the not yet ordered cars have slipped to 2015. Or it could come from Q3... Something going on not according to previous plan/estimate.
 
I confirmed in early June if I remember right. I was originally told late September, then 9/17, now 9/29.
The very worst way of viewing my car is 12 days late over 3 to 4 months.

I don't understand all the fuss, basically they have been on target with the delivery.

What am I not seeing here and why all the concern?
 
Don't forget that Tesla's normal operations puts deliveries to countries outside the US (and particular, countries to which delivery takes a long time) at the beginning of each quarter, and deliveries to USA customers at the end of each quarter. This enables Tesla to meet delivery expectations better, as the rest-of-world delivery pipeline is fraught with random transportation delays of all sorts - whereas the USA pipeline is a lot more predictable and controllable.

It is normal for USA deliveries to occur towards the end, because as manufacturing undertakes a last minute "sprint" to the end, they can actually deliver the cars... and not just manufacture them.

"Delivery" seems to count a lot more in the quarterly reports than "production" does.

FYI I have also seen deliveries reported on this forum where the delivery takes place earlier than anticipated. Example -

Good luck seanahan, I hope you see some positive changes soon! My DS just moved my delivery date one week earlier so it's now 19-Sep-2014. That may be a good sign for you too if the line is running well enough that they're catching up quickly.

September = 3rd month of Q3... customer is in USA
 
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The very worst way of viewing my car is 12 days late over 3 to 4 months.
...
What am I not seeing here and why all the concern?
Bold and underlining is my edit. But what you personally see have little to do with overall trend. For each person that posted delay from October to December here there are hundreds who have not bother to register with TMC or simply not aware of it. And the number of posts are definitely points out toward general trend. I haven't even quoted all of them in OP. The trend/thread justification is based on more than one report from just one guy complaining about his delivery postponed by less than two weeks as you are implying.

This could very well be logistics reshuffling as some pointed out. But I do believe it is worth mentioning in this section, even if it is "false alarm" and was caused by foreign markets demand catching up attention of top Tesla management. Mine point is: this is something worth to be aware of early, for a TSLA investor, rather than seeing world through rose glasses. I mean short terms hiccups(not granted this is the one!!!) it is still better to be aware of even if one targets a very long term. It is better to be aware of problems that are affecting company atm, compared to just wearing rose glasses.
 
Don't forget that Tesla's normal operations puts deliveries to countries outside the US (and particular, countries to which delivery takes a long time) at the beginning of each quarter, and deliveries to USA customers at the end of each quarter. This enables Tesla to meet delivery expectations better, as the rest-of-world delivery pipeline is fraught with random transportation delays of all sorts - whereas the USA pipeline is a lot more predictable and controllable.

Except that the expectations that they're setting in the design tool do not align with end-of-quarter in the US. When I initially designed my Model S the design studio said to expect delivery in "Late October." I decided to push it out myself to Q1 2015 for financial reasons, but Tesla should set correct expectations in the design studio if they don't want customers to be disappointed or alarmed when schedules shift, as a push from two months lead time to four months is significant
 
Except that the expectations that they're setting in the design tool do not align with end-of-quarter in the US. When I initially designed my Model S the design studio said to expect delivery in "Late October." I decided to push it out myself to Q1 2015 for financial reasons, but Tesla should set correct expectations in the design studio if they don't want customers to be disappointed or alarmed when schedules shift, as a push from two months lead time to four months is significant

Fair point
 
For each person that posted delay from October to December here there are hundreds who have not bother to register with TMC or simply not aware of it. And the number of posts are definitely points out toward general trend. I haven't even quoted all of them in OP. The trend/thread justification is based on more than one report from just one guy complaining about his delivery postponed by less than two weeks as you are implying.

I have a strange feeling about that, too - but basically following your reasoning, I believe someone who is not pushed back is much less likely to post than someone who is upset. So there is some bias towards bad news here. I do think there are more delays than usually, but it is impossible to say what percentage of deliveries that is, which is what should concern us as investors.
 
Except that the expectations that they're setting in the design tool do not align with end-of-quarter in the US. When I initially designed my Model S the design studio said to expect delivery in "Late October." I decided to push it out myself to Q1 2015 for financial reasons, but Tesla should set correct expectations in the design studio if they don't want customers to be disappointed or alarmed when schedules shift, as a push from two months lead time to four months is significant
I do not understand your issue. They told you to expect delivery in October but you pushed it out till next year. They seem pretty flexible to me. What is your issue? How did they not meet your expectation?
 
I'm not talking about me, I'm talking about everyone else who ordered in August/September and had their orders pushed from October/November to December. I only mentioned my order because what the design tool told me is the same thing it told them.