Top 20 Best-Selling Cars In America - August 2014 & hypothetical 2014 Model 3

Interesting thought... Supposedly they'll be making 500,000 vehicles by 2020 right?

Lets say half of that goes to Model S/X production (125,000 per year each or around 10,000 per month). Rest goes to the Model III at 250,000 per year (20,000 per month), you're looking at 20,000 of the vehicles of the cars sold going towards the Model III from various cars.

I'd say it destroys Prius' because a cost of ownership analysis would show Model III is pretty much the same. Prius owners are only getting a Prius because of the gas efficiency, so I could see a dramatic reduction in Prius sales. Prius plugins are even more worthless so I'd say all those sales go to Tesla... (-30% overall?). = 4.5k towards Tesla
It'll be electric, luxury, prestigious, and fast so it eats BMW series sales also. (-30%?) = 3K towards Tesla
Size wise it should be comparable to a Honda/Camry/Altima? and if taken with the basics would be similarly priced as a fully loaded medium sized sedan with much more advanced gadgetry. (-25%?) = more than Tesla can produce lol.

Anyway, limiting factor is the 20,000 cars Tesla is producing. Believe you'll see the Prius drop to high teens, Tesla move up to high single digits. Everything else is constrained by supply / demand.

Wonder what Elon's plan is for managing the ratio of production. Maybe it's all wrong and he's limiting Model S to 50,000 annual, X to 50,000 annual, leaving 400,000 to Model III. Which means it could be 33k per month. Bumping it up to the top 5. Dig even further into the Camry/Accord sales.

Wonder how it will affect the luxury market though... All those failing Acura TSXs, Lexus ES###s, BMWs, Mercedes... Those will definitely take a major hit.

Ah well, I'm a fanboy. So these hypotheticals are fun stuff.

Thanks for the post Rob.

-Racceye

Assuming that Tesla Motors reaches 500,000 of Model ≡ manufactured per year at Fremont, they have indicated that roughly 40% of their output will be for sale in North America. That means they would aim for sales of 200,000 per year. That averages to a bit over 16,500 per month. So, yes, at that rate, the Model ≡ will definitely be in the top 20, and likely in the top 15.

If it were available today, it would also take most LEAF, i3, etc. Sales. Those alone would count for 5k+/month.

RiverBrick said:

If it were available today, it would also take most LEAF, i3, etc. Sales. Those alone would count for 5k+/month.

Click to expand...

The street price of a Leaf after rebate is 20K. If the Model 3 is 35K after the rebate, there is no way that it will take all the Leaf sales.
It doesn't matter how much more car you get for the extra 15K if you dont have the extra 15K.

RobStark said:

Tesla target is $35k without any rebates. And for the purposes of this thread we assume Tesla reaches that target.

Chances are Tesla will have used up their allotment of 200k Federal tax credits. Nissan should not be too far behind in 2017.

Anybody that has $20k cash will be able to afford a Model ≡.

Increasingly what matters is the monthly payment not the total purchase price.

My guess is that at least initially Nissan will be offering much better deals on a LEAF than Tesla on a Model ≡.

But over time we shall see. An extra ~$100 per month?

Click to expand...

Okay so we are comparing a 27.5K car ( the Leaf ) to a 35K car ( Model 3 ) if the rebates run out.
But right now it would be 20K versus 27.5K ( with rebates ). Price determines payment.
Either way the typical loan terms would be an additional $110 per month.

I think a lot of US consumers are already buying the most expensive car they can get a loan for.

I agree that the Model 3 will take some Leaf sales, but you buy a Leaf if you are satisfied with the range that you get ( and likely can't pay any more ).
If the range isn't good enough they buy a similarly priced ICE car - which is $20K.

I'm not saying the Model 3 won't sell a ton - I think it will capture a huge volume of sales from people slightly upmarket and rejected the Leaf.

RobStark said:

Model ≡

Click to expand...

How are you doing this?

RobStark said:

....and if so where?

Click to expand...

No idea, because writing "Model ≡" makes it impossible to search for the information.

RobStark said:

Assuming both the Fremont and Gigafactory were fully online today and we had a bare bones(cloth manually adjusted seats, steel wheels with plastic covers, "auto" transmission, power windows & locks, AC and 15" center screen) base $35k Model ≡ with 200 EPA mile range would it be in the Top 20 and if so where?

Click to expand...

I'd assume it would be selling at a rate to put it above the 15,000 per year mark but the year being a partial year wouldn't that make it miss the year for 2014 even if it started today?

If so sales would continue into the second year no problem and pull it well up into the top 20 presumably still below the top 10 due to supply constraints or are we assuming there would be no other supply constraints of any components or line output while doing this hypothetical assignment?

NigelM said:

No idea, because writing "Model ≡" makes it impossible to search for the information.

Click to expand...

Yeah, but it's way cool! :biggrin:

richkae said:

The street price of a Leaf after rebate is 20K.

Click to expand...

What percentage of people get the base S? Most at least get the S + Charge Package (CHADdeMO port and 6.6kW Onboard charger) for $1,770 more. A Pearl White SL with the Premium package is $36,500. Even assuming $3,000 off MSRP, I don't see how that would compete with 200-mile range Tesla. I say that even though I own a LEAF and like it for short trips.

RobStark said:

Cuz I know How To Meet Ladies.

&#8801 ;

But without the space between the 1 and ;

Click to expand...

SW≡≡T Thanks!

Apologies for hijacking the thread everyone...

RobStark said:

The chart is a monthly sales chart.



We are assuming no supply constraints for the maximum GF capacity. 500k cars.

Click to expand...

oops, 15,000 year, scratch that

500k cars a year is for Tesla as a whole isn't it, so some portion will be Model S and X, with ≡ taking the rest.

Lets say 25,000 model S and 25,000 Model X per year leaving 450,000 battery packs for solar city, RMAs, and new ≡

So they could easily sell 35,000 a month supply wise if the batteries and all other parts existed and they opened up enough lines / shifts on the car manufacturing plant(s).

My thought was that even if we started with no supply constraints we would be behind by Z months due to partial year sales for 2014. If you aren't concerned about that and just want to know where it would place in the monthly list I'm saying it could easily pop into the top 15 in the first few months and assuming reliability/initial defects aren't an issue from a swift ramp up I could see it encroaching on the on the top 10 (15,000 to 20,000 sales a month).

I'd see it as pulling sales away from every current major player, some more than others but still spread out enough that it just jumps up the lists pulling most players down equally even if one or two feel it harder than the rest all will be concerned.

I find it hard to imagine a Tesla able to build 35,000 cars a month in 2014, I can imaging them selling that many cars so long as they don't turn the spigot on overnight and give the consumers a few months to wake up and realise Model ≡ just sprang up from this insanely quick ramp up.

Since you said "assuming no supply constraints, and $35k base model", I think the answer is unequivocally YES: in the top 20 on a monthly basis within 12 months of 3 production. I also think top 10 (if not 5) within 30 months of production. My judgment is not quantitative, but qualitative. I've seen 2 notable car-buying shifts in my lifetime. First was huge growth of US sales of Japanese cars in 70s. The Japanese manufacturers correctly assessed the public's willingness to go to smaller, more fuel efficient cars. The pundits did not believe it could happen, but it did. Detroit has never recovered. Second, on a much smaller scale, there's the advent of the hybrid. All of the pundits laughed at the Prius. But, there it is, along with a number of other cars on the top 20 list with hybrid variants such as Sonata and Fusion. And some areas of the country have overall hybrid penetration >10%

The public is much smarter than the entrenched marketeers give them credit for. I cannot count the number of people who drool over my MS, and would buy it if they could afford it. There will not be competition, because nobody else is moving fast enough. Maybe BMW - they are the only ones with a chance to adapt the i3, evolve the range, etc....