Here's one way to sketch out the impact.
1. Total cars sold before the problem largely addressed. (guess: 10k)
2. Percentage of those cars which will make warranty claim in years 4-8: (guess: 10%. Many more than that will make the claim in first 4 years, but that shd already be accounted for.)
3. Total cars sold after problem largely addressed (30k).
4. Percentage of those more recent sales who will make warranty claim in years 4-8 (guess: 3%. Again, the majority of any probs likely taken care of years 1-4)
5. Average cost to Tesla to remove, fix, and replace drive train. (guess: $2k)
Those assumptions would generate a one-time warranty reserve increase of just under $4m. That would be consistent with 'moderate'. But the assumptions may be way off.
This
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